Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-16 Version:28

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	7
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+1	+3	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	+2
Rep	0	+1	+1	-2	-2	-4	4	2	6	-3
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	24	30	54
Republican	7	37	44
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2012-10-16 @ 18:48:43
With just three short weeks until the election now, here is where I believe the Senate races stand at this point- REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS ME- Attempts to boost Dill at King's expense do not seem to be paying off. INDEPENDENT(DEMOCRATIC) GAIN. MA- Scott Brown could have beaten most every Democrat in the state. For a member of Congress these days, he's extraordinarily popular; yet I doubt he'll be able to overcome Obama's wave in the state. MA does not, in modern times, display the same degree of congressional/presidential ticket-spliting as, say, ND, SD, and MT. Yet Brown will still not go down by a lot, and he has remained competetive in polling. DEMOCRATIC GAIN. IN- The fact that Donnelly is not hitting the 46-47-48 mark at this point raises the question of whether or not he'll be able to gain enough crossover support to win. Donnelly is the perfect Democrat for the state, but given Mitt Romney's inevitable win in the state, REPUBLICAN HOLD. NV- Pollsters undershot Harry Reid's race by the (not) small margin of eight percent. I attribute this to a cellphone-based Latino community that has exploded in recent years. POLITICO has reported that Reid's machine, the finest in the country, has gone to work for Berkley. I expect nothing less than an upset, even if on a smaller scale, again this year. DEMOCRATIC GAIN.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2012-10-16 @ 19:14:00
DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS VA- Kaine has been, by and large, outpolling Obama here, and hasn't been behind in any recent poll that comes to mind. If Obama wins, and I suspect he will, especially with the Democratic-leaning DC suburbs continuing to grow, this will be a DEMOCRATIC HOLD. CT- Although Murphy has gotten of to a rough start here, he is still ahead, and given the lean of the state, it is fair to say this will be a DEMOCRATIC HOLD, although it could very well change as we enter the final stages of the campaign. FL- Nelson has successfully outperformed Obama time after time, maintaining a solid lead as the state seems to move into Mr. Romney's hands. Barring some bizarre development, this will be a DEMOCRATIC HOLD. PA- Casey has shown weakness in recent days, but he is still the favorite because he is perfectly built for the state, an economic centre-leftist with socially conservative leanings. While recent polling is unnerving, I still believe this will be a DEMOCRATIC HOLD, even if close. This race also seems increasingly attached to the Presidential race, so developments at the top of the ticket will make a major impact here. MO- I do not believe Obama's abysmal performance at the previous debate harmed McCaskill, as the people who could have concievably vote for her were already on board following "legitimate rape"-gate. Watch for Libertarian Jonathan Dine to allow McCaskill to potentially get by with under 50% of the vote. She is also significantly better funded than Akin, and has been brutally tearing him up in ads since the September 25 drop-out deadline. While an Akin win isn't inconcievable, right now the race is tilting towards McCaskill. DEMOCRATIC HOLD. OH- Brown and Obama seem to be tightly linked here, and Obama's strong performance this year is working to Brown's benefit. Brown, an outspoken opponent of Citizens United, will be brutally maligned by Super-PAC ads. For now, DEMOCRATIC HOLD. ND- Heitkamp seems to be out-manœuvring Berg, yet the nature of the state gives Berg a clearer path to victory than Heitkamp. Yet Heitkamp is running for a seat that has not been Republican in decades, true to North Dakota's history of ticket-spliting. If Heitkamp continues her effective labeling of Berg as one who wants to eliminate Social Security and Medicare, she could narrowly win. Based only on a gut call, DEMOCRATIC HOLD. MT- Tester doesn't seem to be getting above 45. He has a congressional record that Heitkamp doesn't have to deal with, although Libertarian Danny Cox could pull enough votes away from Rehberg to permit Tester to grab victory from the jaws of defeat. With so much up in the air, by a gut feeling, I'd call this a DEMOCRATIC HOLD, although I'd say Heitkamp has a clearer path to victory of these two (The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato shares this assessment.)

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	1	338	23	T	684
2018 Senate	31/35	24/35	55/70	78.6%	5	2	67	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	3	3	18	T	372
2016 President	47/56	26/56	73/112	65.2%	7	0	496	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	7	1	164	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	2	1	67	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	110	72	T	112
2014 Senate	29/36	22/36	51/72	70.8%	48	1	200	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	16/36	45/72	62.5%	25	1	145	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	2	1	T	153
2012 President	56/56	46/56	102/112	91.1%	28	0	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	27/33	59/66	89.4%	37	0	1		343
2012 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	5	0	51	T	228
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	28	5	2	T	106
2010 Senate	37/37	30/37	67/74	90.5%	203	0	2	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	146	0	17	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	441/484	326/484	767/968	79.2%