Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:9

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	8
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+2	+3	0	-2	-2	15	4	19	+1
Rep	0	+2	+2	-1	-2	-3	5	2	7	-1
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	30	52
Republican	9	37	46
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

fixexd HI

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 7

Best possible dem scenario

Version: 6

races to watch-

indiana-while this was originally assumed to be a safe GOP hold, lugar has been ousted by crazy comment prone mourdock, and moderate donnely may be able to pull it out from under mourdock. awaiting more polling.

massachusettes- both candidates are winning the constituancies they need to win. the heritage scandal isn't affecting the race as much as I thought it would. but it may dull the fanaticism of progressives, while the opposte effect happens with brown. with a GOP governor of the state running in the president, I expect heavy republicann turnout to the polls. the most recent poll, PPP, when corrected for the somewhat skewed electorate, shows a slight brown lead. I tentatively have it in the GOP category.

Maine- it is pretty safe for king, the question is what party he aligns with. he will probably align with the majority party

Version: 1

preliminary prediction. not following senate races that closely yet.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	49/56	38/56	87/112	77.7%	54	1	561	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	9	1	94	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	41/52	19/52	60/104	57.7%	50	-	41	T	231
2008 President	44/56	25/56	69/112	61.6%	76	1	1031	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	32/52	16/52	48/104	46.2%	29	-	80	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	35/49	11/49	46/98	46.9%	19	-	72	T	235
2007 Governor	2/3	0/3	2/6	33.3%	3	60	155	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	235/301	128/301	363/602	60.3%