R+1

#INGOP FAIL

Republicans narrowly take the Senate in this scenario - I think Republicans will overperform in Wisconsin, both Romney and Thompson, and I expect him to narrowly defeat "radical" Baldwin. Pennsylvania is a myth I've held for months, we'll see if it holds true. Akin really screwed up our chances at winning a majority.

Annoyed we nominated Akin in Missouri - Steelman or Brunner would have been much better. We dodged a bullet in Wisconsin though - Thompson will win there easily.

There's a lot that could change between now and November. A lot of races have the potential of being close, a lot of races have the potential of one candidate running away, similar to Ohio in 2010.

I BELIEVE IN HEATHER WILSON.

- Indiana is going to be a swing state, thanks to Indiana GOP's horrific decision.

- Why are so many people still picking Baldwin to beat Thompson in Wisconsin? She is far-left, he is moderate. He's led in all of the polls, often outside of the margin of error. I understand most list it as a tossup, but why is Baldwin still winning overall?

- Once the GOP rallies around a nominee, I think they'll have an easy time beating McCaskill. Too bad Talent didn't run; would have been an easy pickup.

- Massachusetts is going to be hard to predict. It'll stay close. Same with Virginia.

Closest States (In Order):
Florida
Virginia
Massachusetts

While I think Missouri, Montana, and Wisconsin will be close, I think Republicans will have enough of an edge that it won't be a barnburner (trading leads throughout the night).

This is the best possible map I can see happening for Democrats.

- Both Lugar and Snowe are knocked off in their primaries.
- Rick Santorum is nominated by the GOP.
- Economy falls to 6% by election day.