Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:1
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Analysis
I see the tightest races for the Senate being Montana, Nevada, and North Dakota. For me, these have the highest degree of uncertainty. In North Dakota, the Republican-lean of the state may too much for Democrats to retain. Montana seems like a pure toss-up. The other race that I'm having trouble with here is Nevada. Based on the state's past and what tends to be Democratic under-performance, this is a tough one. These three may entirely depend on how well the candidates can deal with top-of-the-ticket headwinds. Member Comments User's Predictions
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