Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:11

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	1
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+2	+3	-1	-2	-3	14	4	18	0
Rep	+1	+2	+3	-1	-2	-3	5	2	7	0
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	30	51
Republican	10	37	47
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

Early predictions based on poll results (when available) and rankings by main political pundits. I'm willingfully underconfident, so as to take every scenario into account.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	26/35	59/70	84.3%	6	0	69	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	27/36	61/72	84.7%	6	0	51	T	272
2020 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	13	5	434	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	18/35	50/70	71.4%	8	3	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	5	10	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	4	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	14	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	28/36	60/72	83.3%	7	2	18	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	18	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	21/34	52/68	76.5%	18	0	35	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	6	0	67	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	27/36	61/72	84.7%	8	0	13	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	5	0	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	24	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	48/56	104/112	92.9%	15	0	13	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	11	0	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	2	31	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	23/52	67/104	64.4%	27	-	16	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	19	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	24/37	59/74	79.7%	10	0	59	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	12	92	T	103
2008 President	54/56	45/56	99/112	88.4%	9	0	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	27/33	60/66	90.9%	5	0	1	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	4/11	14/22	63.6%	1	5	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	696/751	496/751	1192/1502	79.4%