Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-18 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	24
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	15
Ind	2
Tos	9
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-8	-6	-14	7	0	7	-14
Rep	+8	+7	+15	0	-1	-1	7	2	9	+14
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	7	30	37
Republican	24	37	61
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

I confess this is likely the best case scenario for the libertarian GOP, but it's not that unrealistic:

CA: only two Republicans that could win are Mike Reagan and Tom Campbell
CT: Peter Schiff, (my pick), or McMahon; I like Jodi Rell too, wish Lieberman would run again. I don't often agree with him, but he's a respectable guy.
DE: Would like to see Castle
FL: Connie Mack IV
HI: Linda Lingle
MD: I'd like to see Steele or Ehrlich
ME: hoping for a miracle, and Angus King jumps in
MI: either Scotty Boman (my pick); Engle would be a GOP wet dream
MN: Jesse Ventura (hopefully), or Kurt Bills (R)
MT: Rehberg
NE: hope that Hagel runs again
NM: Gary Johnson - hope he gets smart and drops that presidential bid
NJ: Dobbs probably
NY: Giuliani and Pataki are the among the only Republicans who could win, and Rudy should've run for governor, but Turner could surprise everyone
OH: Mandel can still win this thing
VA: George Allen
WA: Clint Didier
WI: Thompson

Version: 1

New York: only if Pataki or Giuliani runs
Minnesota: Hopefully Barkley or Jesse V. runs
New Jersey: Lou Dobbs or Christine Todd Whitman
Florida: Connie Mack
Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson, would be cool if Feingold jumped in
Hawaii: obviously Linda Lingle
New Mexico: hopefully Gary Johnson
Washington: Clint Didier
Maine: obviously we'd have to renominate the Maine Lady
Virginia: George Allen
Nebraska: crossing my fingers for Hagel, though sadly its looking to be too late.

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-07-18 @ 23:03:58
Obviously several of these state predictions I take issue with, but the one that is like a zit on a nose is California. I am wondering why/how you feel Dianne Feinstein a mulitple term powerful incumbent in a mega democratic state is going to lose to Elizabeth Emken, a newcomer and virtual unknown to politics? Emken has no money and is not known for her "moderate" political positions needed to appeal to the democratic leaning electorate of the state? Feinstein is proably in the top 5 most "safe" senators running for reelection. The last polls out had her almost 20pts ahead. Boxer beat off a more serious challenge in 2010 and even that was not completely razor thin, at a 10 point victory. Last Edit: 2012-07-18 @ 23:17:08

By: Ernest (D-SC) 2012-07-26 @ 02:20:30
Minnesota is another egregious bit of hackery here. The polls indicate that Klobuchar klobbers Kurt. It's a safe D seat this cycle with the only question being will Amy have an over 20% margin of victory or not. The GOP has an outside shot at getting to 60 if King caucuses with them, but that requires them to win every seat they have even a slim hope of winning. Neither California nor Minnesota are available this year.

By: Jerseyrules (I-CA) 2012-08-07 @ 15:29:17
Feinstein, according to prolong info I got several months ago (when I made this) indicated Feinstein was under 50% in all matchups, indicating severe vulnerability for an incumbent. MN is a wishful thinking scenario, as I like the GOP nominee as he's a Ronulan. Another note in CA is that I was under the impression Campbell or Fiorina would enter the race, and this was a Campbell v. Boxer matchup. I'm going to change this later, but I believe the rest is pretty reasonable. HI is close (really hoping for a Lingle win there), as is NJ and PA is also surprisingly close. But I like Casey. Think of this more as an endorsement map than anything else for now.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2021 Governor	3/2	1/2	4/4	100.0%	1	53	1	T	118
2020 Senate	31/35	26/35	57/70	81.4%	1	35	25	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	37	51	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	20/35	52/70	74.3%	1	108	170	T	483
2016 President	49/56	32/56	81/112	72.3%	1	453	194	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	19/34	51/68	75.0%	1	496	60	T	362
2016 Governor	6/12	3/12	9/24	37.5%	1	453	269	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	19/36	52/72	72.2%	2	94	177	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	14/36	43/72	59.7%	3	21	192	T	300
2012 President	34/56	12/56	46/112	41.1%	11	296	758		760
2012 Senate	17/33	4/33	21/66	31.8%	5	111	339	T	343
2012 Governor	6/11	3/11	9/22	40.9%	3	153	221	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	14/52	6/52	20/104	19.2%	13	-	193	T	231
2011 Governor	2/4	2/4	4/8	50.0%	1	51	79	T	106
Aggregate Predictions	299/413	168/413	467/826	56.5%