Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-24 Version:19

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	16
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-3	-4	-7	12	2	14	-6
Rep	+3	+4	+7	-1	0	-1	6	3	9	+6
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	15	30	45
Republican	16	37	53
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

2012 US Senate Election.
Solid Democratic
VT(Sanders-I)31D
DE(Carper-D)32D
NY(Gillibrand-D)33D
MD(Cardin-D)34D
MN(Klobuchar-D)35D
RI(Whitehouse-D)36D
CA(Feinstein-D)37D
Likely Democratic
ME(King-I)38D
WV(Manchin-D)39D
WA(Cantwell-D)40D
PA(Casey-D)41D
NJ(Menendez-D)42D
Lean Democratic
MI(Stabenow-D)43D
OH(Brown-D)44D
HI(Hirono-D)45D
CT(Murphy-D)46D
NM(Heinrich-D)47D
Tossup Democratic
WI(Baldwin-D)48D-faces Hovde-R in the November General Election.
FL(Nelson-D)49D-narrowly defeats Mack-R.
VA(Kaine-D)50D-narrowly defeats Allen-R.
MA(Warren-D)51D-narrowly defeats Brown-R.
Seats to watch.
IN(Donnelly-D vs Mourdock-R)
MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R)
NV(Berkley-D vs Heller-R)
MO(McCaskill-D vs Brunner-R)
ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R)
Republicans win
AZ(Flake-R)38R
NE(Fischer-R)39R
TX(Cruz-R)40R
UT(Hatch-R)41R
MS(Wicker-R)42R
TN(Corker-R)43R
WY(Barrasso-R)44R

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-24 @ 14:24:15
The 12 battleground US Senate Races for 2012 is OH(Brown-D vs Mandel-R) NM(Heinrich-D vs Wilson-R) WI(Baldwin-D vs Hovde-R) FL(Nelson-D vs Mack-R) VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R) MA(Warren-D vs Brown-R) IN(Donnelly-D vs Mourdock-R) MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R) NV(Berkley-D vs Heller-R) MO(McCaskill-D vs Brunner-R) ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R) AZ(Carmona-D vs Flake-R) Democrats are favored to win HI(Hirono-D benefits from Obama-D coattails). CT(Murphy-D benefits from Obama-D coattails and Shays-R is refusing to endorse McMahon-R). WA(Cantwell-D benefits from Obama-D coattails). NJ(Menendez-D benefits from Obama-D coattails.) MI(Stabenow-D has a weak GOP challenger-Hoekstra-R-who is more unpopular than Romney-R).(MI has a lot of Stabenow/Romney voters.) PA(Casey-D is very popular in PA- he outperforms Obama-D in Murtha Territory.) WV(Manchin-D is personally popular in Red WV) ME(King-I)wins a 3 way Race against a generic DEM and generic REP- likely to caucus with the Democrats. MN(Klobuchar-D is very popular in MN-likely to outperform Obama-D in the MN-1,MN-2,MN-3,MN-6,MN-7,and MN-8 CD.(Outside the St Paul/Minneapolis Area). CA(Feinstein-D),NY(Gillibrand-D),MD(Cardin-D),RI(Whitehouse-D),DE(Carper-D) and VT(Sanders-I) are safe. 45 Seats plus (OH,NM,WI,FL,VA,and MA). Republicans are strongly favored to win NE(Fischer-R defeats Kerrey-D),TX(Cruz-R or Dewhurst-R),UT(Hatch-R),MS(Wicker-R),TN(Corker-R),and WY(Barrasso-R), 43 Seats plus (AZ,ND,IN,MT,MO,and NV).

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-24 @ 18:28:33
2012 Obama-D wins re-election Democrats maintain the majority in the US Senate.-(King-ME,Warren-MA,Baldwin-WI,and Kaine-VA) Democrats lose Tester-MT and McCaskill-MO plus OPEN seat in NE and ND. 2014. Democrats are vulnerable in AK(Begich-D is vulnerable against a non controversial Republican). AR(Unlike Lincoln-D in 2010, Pryor-D is the Joe Manchin/John Breaux of AR). IA(If Harkin-D runs again-He will face either Latham-R or King-R-He crushes both of them-If he retires- Tom Vilsack-D vs Steve King-R). LA(A Landrieu-D vs Jindal-R matchup would be worth watching). MI(Assuming Levin-D retires- Gary Peters-D vs Candace Miller-R) MN(Franken-D vs either Pawlenty-R or Bachmann-R). MT(Assuming Baucus-D retires-Tester-D comeback- Schweitzer-D focuses on 2016. NC(Hagan-D will face Ellmers-R) SD(Johnson-D vs Rounds-R,Herseth-Sandlin-D vs Rounds-R,Johnson-D vs Noem-R,or Herseth Sandlin-D vs Noem) WV(Rockefeller-D vs Moore Capito-R)-Tossup. (Rahall-D vs Moore Capito-R)-Leans Republican.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-25 @ 00:03:05
Democrats win VT(Sanders-I)31D DE(Carper-D)32D MD(Cardin-D)33D NY(Gillibrand-D)34D MN(Klobuchar-D)35D RI(Whitehouse-D)36D CA(Feinstein-D)37D ME(King-I)38D WV(Manchin-D)39D PA(Casey-D)40D WA(Cantwell-D)41D NJ(Menendez-D)42D MI(Stabenow-D)43D HI(Hirono-D)44D CT(Murphy-D)45D OH(Brown-D)46D NM(Heinrich-D)47D WI(Baldwin-D)48D(faces Hovde-R) MA(Warren-D)49D Republicans win WY(Barrasso-R)38R TN(Corker-R)39R MS(Wicker-R)40R UT(Hatch-R)41R TX(Cruz-R)42R NE(Fischer-R)43R AZ(Flake-R)44R IN(Mourdock-R)45R ND(Berg-R)46R NV(Heller-R)47R MO(Brunner-R)48R FL(Mack-R)49R MT(Rehberg-R)50R VA(Allen-R or Kaine-D) 3 Factors resulting in Democrats retaining control of the US Senate. 1)Tea Party in WI defeating Thompson-R in the primary. 2)Macaca Part 2 in VA 3)Obama coattails in MA.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	20	4	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	221	4	164	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	97	16	42	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	325	171	T	300
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	227/251	161/251	388/502	77.3%