Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-09-22 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	25
Rep	6
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	25
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	0
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+2	+4	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	+3
Rep	0	+1	+1	-2	-3	-5	4	1	5	-4
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	25	30	55
Republican	6	37	43
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

* SCENARIO *

Down-ticket impact following the "47 percent" speech by Mitt Romney … along with a presidential election outcome of a landslide loss.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

Those in green are tossups. (Exception: Vermont's Bernie Sanders, also in green, who will get re-elected as an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.)

Overall, I predict that the Republicans will win the Senate only if they win back the presidency. If Barack Obama gets re-elected as the 44th president of the United States, majority control of the U.S. Senate will be retained by the incumbent Democrats.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	4/56	0/56	4/112	3.6%	3	60	677		678
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	8	10	182	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	18/33	49/66	74.2%	2	45	128	T	343
2010 Senate	32/37	21/37	53/74	71.6%	5	32	167	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	23/37	56/74	75.7%	1	32	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	3	1	T	103
2008 President	50/56	38/56	88/112	78.6%	10	2	276	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	2	24	281	T	407
Aggregate Predictions	238/310	158/310	396/620	63.9%