PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - Frodo (D-VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-09-01 Version:3

Prediction Map
Frodo MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Frodo MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-812113-8
Rep+4+4+800012315+8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133245
Republican233053
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
533518
piepiepie

Analysis

With Angus King and Joe Manchin likely to caucus with Republicans in the event of a Senate takeover, the GOP will in effect have a 55:45 seat majority by January 2015.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Also, I fully expect that Sen. Joe Manchin will either switch parties or become a GOP-caucusing independent after the 2014 mid-term elections, expanding the (effective) GOP Senate majority to 53.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 3 64 158T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 13/36 43/72 59.7% pie 1 149 192T300
P 2012 President 55/56 40/56 95/112 84.8% pie 7 7 314T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 2 3 211T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 3/11 12/22 54.5% pie 1 32 196T228
P 2011 Governor 2/4 0/4 2/8 25.0% pie 1 332 100T106
P 2010 Senate 32/37 17/37 49/74 66.2% pie 4 135 242T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 18/37 51/74 68.9% pie 2 135 158T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 28 1T103
P 2008 President 54/56 34/56 88/112 78.6% pie 8 13 276T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 15/33 46/66 69.7% pie 7 31 227T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 2 332 50T264
P 2008 Rep Primary 27/49 3/49 30/98 30.6% pie 1 - 128T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 182 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 16 2 65T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 17/36 53/72 73.6% pie 11 6 93T312
Aggregate Predictions 423/473 224/473 647/946 68.4% pie



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