Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-25 Version:17

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-6	-4	-10	10	1	11	-10
Rep	+6	+4	+10	0	0	0	12	3	15	+10
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	32	43
Republican	25	30	55
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 8

I don't think the GOP will win 8 seats, but the Dems are starting to find themselves in big trouble as the playing field expands very quickly. Watch and wait...

Version: 2

I don't think Republicans will win the majority at this point. I think Democrats will win a couple of the tossups, but which ones? I think probably two to three of Shaheen, Hagan, Begich, Landrieu and Pryor will survive. I had originally thought the eventual Dem candidate in Michigan would be a lock, but I think the race now requires more attention as I think the entry of Land into the race makes it potentially very competitive. I think MI is one of the races to watch now, if she wins the primary.

Version History

Member Comments

By: vt500ascott (D-TX) 2014-10-27 @ 14:42:41
Yours is the most accurate "most Republican map". This scenario could actually happen. It's not going to. But at least it's not impossible...

By: RMH8824 (R-IA) 2014-10-29 @ 23:46:47
I'd say this one isn't completely unrealistic. Six months ago I would have thought this is a 'crazy' map. The GOP has at least some momentum in all ten states that this guy has being picked up.

By: colin (I-ON) 2014-10-30 @ 10:22:48
This is completely realistic at this point. I will post a final prediction before Tuesday. The states that I see most subject to change in my prediction are New Hampshire, North Carolina and Kansas. My final prediction will be somewhere between +7 and +10.

By: colin (I-ON) 2014-11-05 @ 00:24:33
Off by 1...the last prediction was COMPLETELY possible and realistic

By: colin (I-ON) 2014-11-18 @ 19:09:28
A bit of a disappointing cycle on election atlas. Where were my friends dnul, CR, LR, Miles, KS and doniki? Virtually no one commented on the results. Hope you are all doing well and hope 2016 is a better year on here. Although I can't say I'm disappointed with the results =)

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2014-11-20 @ 08:45:47
It was a very quiet year here. Too quiet. As for the results, I found them rather disappointing and stunning, especially in my home state, but I'm glad you're happy with the results. It was easily the best year for Republicans in a decade, and hopefully the results will make our political system a little less dysfunctional. It's good to hear from you, colin!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					249
2022 Senate	28/35	21/35	49/70	70.0%	4	6	271	T	305
2022 Governor	26/36	17/36	43/72	59.7%	5	6	260	T	272
2020 President	47/56	26/56	73/112	65.2%	5	10	667		684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	8	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	10	147	T	293
2016 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	9	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	4	1	164	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	8/12	19/24	79.2%	2	1	1	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	18	1	60	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	12	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	228	138	T	153
2012 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	28	1	367	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	20/33	51/66	77.3%	11	1	94	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	3	48	131	T	228
2010 Senate	31/37	22/37	53/74	71.6%	42	0	167	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	24/37	55/74	74.3%	23	0	118	T	312
2008 President	49/56	44/56	93/112	83.0%	16	2	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	2	3	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	2	3	212	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	25/33	13/33	38/66	57.6%	1	1	402	T	465
2006 Governor	30/36	13/36	43/72	59.7%	1	1	232	T	312
2004 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	3	1	283	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	654/748	432/748	1086/1496	72.6%