PredictionsEndorse2014 Senatorial Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-28 Version:3

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
wingindy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1-4-4-812113-7
Rep+4+4+8-1-1-211213+6
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic143246
Republican213051
Independent123
pie

Analysis

By about this time next week, Bruce Braley concedes to Joni Ernst, giving the GOP 50 seats. The Senate majority will be decided in a Louisiana runoff, where Landreiu falls, making Orman's choice undeterminative.<br /> <br /> A bright spot for the Democrats is Georgia, with Michelle Nunn taking back the seat held by war hero Max Cleland until 2003. <br /> <br /> McConnell will get two years as Majority leader, I'm afraid.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2014-10-29 @ 01:22:12 prediction Map
Yes, two years. Democrats are poised to gain 5-7 seats in 2016.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 3 27 140T
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 3 21 94T
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T
Aggregate Predictions 585/659 331/659 916/1318 69.5% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Carolina3 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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