Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-02 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	15
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	13
Ind	1
Tos	5
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	-2	-2	16	3	19	-1
Rep	0	+2	+2	-1	-1	-2	11	2	13	0
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	32	52
Republican	15	30	45
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
40	27	13

Analysis

Summary: I predict a down to the wire midterm election across the board. I do see the Republicans pickup in MT and SD. SD will be a GOP pickup in a three way race. A Independent will pickup KS. The Democrats will have one pickup in GA even in a run-off scenario. I do observe 5 overall US senate races will be a true toss-up with no clear winner foreseen before election day. The US Senate will retain a Democratic Majority, but by a slim margin.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	27/36	13/36	40/72	55.6%	1	2	337	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	12/36	39/72	54.2%	1	2	253	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	54/72	25/72	79/144	54.9%

User Info

	thejondich Forum Profile
	thejondich Senatorial Endorsements

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