|
Date of Prediction: 2014-11-04 Version:35
Prediction Map
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 72)
Analysis
Last prediction! #Yolo
Prediction History
Comments History
- hide
Version: 34 So many nail biters. Version: 33 David Perdue seems to have righted the ship in Georgia, but there will still probably be a runoff. Same goes for Louisiana, where I think Rob Maness may get more of the vote than polled because of Tea Party backing. Version: 32 South Dakota is returning to normal. Races to watch at this point: Kansas (a guy who only kind of lives there versus a guy who won't say where he stands on anything) Iowa (Koch sister vs Bruce Bailey) Louisiana (How big will the Tea Party be in this likely runoff race?)Georgia (Two business people, one looks like the Governor from The Walking Dead)and Colorado (Mr. Sign a pledge that doesn't exist vs. Tom Uterus) Version: 31 Things could get interesting. Louisiana and Georgia are both looking like runoffs. We may not know who controls the senate until January 6th, 2015. Version: 29 South Dakota has become a race to watch. Mike Rounds seemingly surefire win has turned into a cold sweat. Pat Roberts may be retaking the lead in Kansas, due to Greg Orman's inability to get specific on anything. Watch for the Michigan race to turn to 'Strong D' in my next prediction. Terri Land has become an eye sore. Joni Ernst is clinging to a thin lead, Cory Gardner may be getting the upper hand. Version: 28 Has Pat Roberts retaken the lead in Kansas? Great news for GOP if yes. Version: 27 Some recent rounds of polling make it appear that the GOP wave that was thought to be coming may be more of a sprinkle. Michigan is pretty much out of the question, Terri Land has been a downright embarrassment. Recent polls show Grimes leading in Kentucky and South Dakota is rallying towards the 3rd Party candidate, with the 'surefire winner' Rounds only leading by 3. No switches are made in this prediction, GOP still projected to take the Senate. But if the national mood for the GOP is changing, it could mean unpleasant results for Team Republican on Election Night. Version: 26 Senate effectively becomes 53-47 GOP if Orman chooses to vote with majority like promised. 54-46 if Angus King chooses the same. Version: 24 Good news for GOP: My projection has them taking the Senate based on polling averages. The bad news: It's very tight for them. With Kansas looking good right now for Greg Orman, and Joni Ernst having to fight a hard-spending Democratic machine, GOP has reason to be sweating. (Hard to believe Dems can honestly call Ernst the candidate running on outsider money when Democrats have spent $10 million in negative ads already) Version: 23 The way the polls lean now, Dems would keep control of the Senate thanks to a wacky race in Kansas. Version: 22 Still watching polls to Kansas Senate Race. I would suspect Pat Roberts to have an advantage, but this is a very topsy-turvy election cycle. Version: 21 Two big changes: Both North Carolina and Iowa (sigh) moved to Dem win. Bruce Braley leads by a tiny margin, but it is consistent in the last several polls. Kay Hagan has retaken the lead in the NC race. Michigan goes to Leans Dem as well. Terri Land is not running a good campaign. Version: 20 My poll averages are noe saying Braley has a tiny lead in the Iowa Senate Race. I'm temporarily keeping this as a GOP pickup, but I'll change it if the lead continues for Braley. Version: 19 Illinois becoming competitive? Dick Durbin may not be as secure as once thought. Jim Oberweis has been an interesting opponent, and appears to be capitalizing on a good election season and a more home-ish type of campaign. It's still advantage Durbin, but it won't be the 70% win he had in 2008. Version: 18 Several polls show some improvement for Democrats. The stalemate in Iowa continues. The last several polls show Joni Ernst and Bruce Braley tied. My map still has the GOP taking the Senate in November, but Dems are still in range in several key states, including Arkansas. They have even added a competitive race in Kansas, of all states. Version: 17 Races to watch: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina. Version: 16 Not much has changed. 60% chance of GOP taking Senate according to 2012 prophecy man Nate Silver. Version: 15 A few changes: Alaska- Now looks to be leaning in Mark Begich's direction. Dan Sullivan has been battered badly by both primary and Democrat attacks. Mead Treadwell may end up winning the nomination. I also moved West Virginia from safe to lean Republican as Natalie Tennant has remained competitive. All of the rest of the news in the latest round of polls seem like good news for Republicans. These include a few surprisingly close polls in 'Safe Dem' states like Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Ed Gillespie apparently had a strong debate last weekend in Virginia. Republicans appear poised to take control of the United States Senate, albeit by a thin majority. Version: 14 No major changes in this prediction. Just marking the Senate races in Alabama, Delaware, and Rhode Island, where all three incumbents are running unopposed. Version: 13 Prediction: Control in the United States Senate will be decided in Alaska. Mark Begich is popular, but Alaska is very much a red state. It is the Begich family name against the beloved GOP in The Last Frontier. The most pleasant surprise so far this cycle is how Joni Ernst has turned what was a surefire win for Democrats in Iowa into a true Toss Up. Bruce Braley needs to watch his tongue. Version: 12 Made this just after midnight on the 4th of July. #Merica #IHaveNoLife Version: 10 Iowa is one of four states to never have a female represent them in Congress. They have three opportunities to send one to Congress come November. In Iowa District 2, Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) is running to upset Dave Loebsack (D).In the 3rd District, Staci Appel (D) will run against a to be determined Republican candidate. The Republicans will choose their candidate at convention since no candidate got 35% in the primary election. And in the Senate, Joni Ernst (R) is running against Bruce Braley (D) to take Tom Harkin's old seat. [Three women ran for the Dem nominee in Braley's district, but were all defeated by Pat Murphy (D)] Ernst is leading in recent polls! Version: 9 Main change from my last prediction: North Carolina going to Thillis. Things are starting to look up for Mitch McConnell as his lead in the Kentucky Senate Race has grown. The map I have now has the Republicans taking control of the United States Senate! Version: 8 Races to watch: Arkansas- Where Mark Pryor is holding his own against Tom Cotton and an increasingly Republican culture. Iowa- My home state, where a long tight Republican primary is beginning to open up for Joni Ernst. Alaska- Where recent polls show Mark Begich holding on (but I'm keeping it a Republican win for now)And North Carolina- Where Thom Tillis has secured a primary win and will now have a fierce battle with Kay Hagan. Version: 7 This current map is based solely on newest polls from RCP. Mark Pryor is doing surprisingly well in recent polls against Tom Cotton in Arkansas. I am enthusiastic for Republicans in states that have long suggested Democratic victories. Michigan, (Terry Land is polling well) New Hampshire, (Scott Brown trying to return to the Senate, is gaining ground on Jeanne Shaheen) and Iowa (I think Joni Ernst could give Bruce Braley a run for his money). Version: 6 Looking at recent polls, I see that Mark Pryor is actually leading Tom Cotton in Arkansas. This may change my next prediction map, though I'm still feeling good about Cotton in the now very Republican state. <br /> New Hampshire polls have gotten closer with Brown officially in the race. But Jeanne Shaheen continues to hold about a 6-point lead. I have changed that back to leans Democratic.<br /> Iowa continues to be leans Democratic as well. I personally like Joni Ernst for both the Republican primary and the general election.<br /> Kentucky and Georgia remain leans Republican, but with Mitch McConnell's lack of popularity and Georgia's gradual shift towards Democrats make both of these states interesting to watch. <br /> I've changed Colorado to a Toss-Up based on the closeness of polls. I'm also considering changing Michigan to Toss-Up status. Version: 5 Races I'm watching:<br /> Iowa- My home state. The Republican primary is tight. I think Joni Ernst could make this race competitive if she gets the nomination, but this race is slightly in Bruce Braley's (D) favor.<br /> <br /> New Hampshire- Scott Brown!! I don't know whether this race is actually as competitive as it may seem with Brown moving up from Massachusetts, but name recognition will be a factor. <br /> <br /> Kentucky- Smiling Mitch's Reddit worthy ad and onstage gun moment only adds to the ammo that Democrats who are targeting his seat have. KY is a Republican state, but a chance to unseat the potential next Senate Majority Leader practically leaves Dems foaming at the mouth. Version: 3 Republicans need 51 seats to take control of the Senate, and after the fiasco last month, I don't know that they'll get there. The races in Georgia and Kentucky, two red states, have become more competitive, though I'm keeping those Republican for now. If the rhetoric of the Republican Party can't become clear and less destructive, it could be a repeat of the 2012 Senate elections. Version: 2 This version has the change in momentum in the Montana senate race after ex-Governor Brian Schweitzer decided not to run. Republicans would take the six seats they need for control of the Senate. Version: 1 Recent polls have suggested lowering approval of both Democratic incumbent senators Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Wins in theses two red states will be key for Republicans to take control of the senate in 2014. Another race that would be key would be against Kay Hagan (D) in North Carolina, but Republicans have been slow to find a challenger there, so Hagan may have an advantage there.
Version History Member Comments User's Predictions
Links
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2022 Senate
2022 Governor
2020 President
2020 Senate
2020 Governor
2018 Senate
2018 Governor
2016 President
2016 Senate
2016 Governor
2015 Governor
2014 Senate
2014 Governor
2013 Governor
Back to 2014 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home