Date of Prediction: 2016-10-29 Version:6
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
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Version: 1 I know it's a pretty hefty win for the Democrats, but considering 2016 will most likely be a blue year and incumbents usually become more vulnerable as election time nears, I think the Democrats will be able to win eleven pickups. Looking back at the 2014 race, nobody would have expected incumbents like Udall, Hagan, etc. to be at risk until election time came closer, so it isn't implausible to think the wave party will make larger and larger gains become more apparent as time goes by.<br /> <br /> Pickups:<br /> -New Hampshire: Hassan runs and beats Ayotte by a few points.<br /> -Pennsylvania: Sestak wins the Democratic nominations and defeats Toomey in a close race.<br /> -North Carolina: Another close race, this time with Hagan and Burr. Hagan regains her popularity throughout the course of the election and is able to accumulate vast swaths of campaign finances.<br /> - Florida: Murphy beats Lopez-Cantera easily.<br /> -Ohio: Strickland beats Portman in close race.<br /> -Indiana: Bayh defeats (someone) with razor-thin margin.<br /> -Illinois: Duckworth beats Kirk handily.<br /> -Wisconsin: Feingold crushes Johnson.<br /> -Missouri: Very close race between Kander and Blunt.<br /> -Arizona: McCain is primaried by a weak Tea Party activist who is beaten in a close race by a moderate Dem like Synema.<br /> -Alaska: If Murkowski is primaried (unlikely), Begich will have an easy time beating a Tea Partier. If she doesn't, this is more of a toss-up or Lean-Rep, but Begich could still pull out a win, considering that his last race was actually pretty close.
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