PredictionsEndorse2016 Senatorial Predictions - darthebearnc (--NC) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-10-29 Version:6

Prediction Map
darthebearnc MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
darthebearnc MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+6+1+70007310+7
Rep000-6-1-716117-7
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic173451
Republican173047
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
442915
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 1

I know it's a pretty hefty win for the Democrats, but considering 2016 will most likely be a blue year and incumbents usually become more vulnerable as election time nears, I think the Democrats will be able to win eleven pickups. Looking back at the 2014 race, nobody would have expected incumbents like Udall, Hagan, etc. to be at risk until election time came closer, so it isn't implausible to think the wave party will make larger and larger gains become more apparent as time goes by.<br /> <br /> Pickups:<br /> -New Hampshire: Hassan runs and beats Ayotte by a few points.<br /> -Pennsylvania: Sestak wins the Democratic nominations and defeats Toomey in a close race.<br /> -North Carolina: Another close race, this time with Hagan and Burr. Hagan regains her popularity throughout the course of the election and is able to accumulate vast swaths of campaign finances.<br /> - Florida: Murphy beats Lopez-Cantera easily.<br /> -Ohio: Strickland beats Portman in close race.<br /> -Indiana: Bayh defeats (someone) with razor-thin margin.<br /> -Illinois: Duckworth beats Kirk handily.<br /> -Wisconsin: Feingold crushes Johnson.<br /> -Missouri: Very close race between Kander and Blunt.<br /> -Arizona: McCain is primaried by a weak Tea Party activist who is beaten in a close race by a moderate Dem like Synema.<br /> -Alaska: If Murkowski is primaried (unlikely), Begich will have an easy time beating a Tea Partier. If she doesn't, this is more of a toss-up or Lean-Rep, but Begich could still pull out a win, considering that his last race was actually pretty close.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 45/56 25/56 70/112 62.5% pie 10 13 567T678
P 2016 Senate 29/34 15/34 44/68 64.7% pie 6 10 302T362
P 2016 Governor 8/12 5/12 13/24 54.2% pie 5 10 119T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 3 13 8T112
Aggregate Predictions 84/105 47/105 131/210 62.4% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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