PredictionsEndorse2016 Senatorial Predictions - RMH8824 (R-IA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:16

Prediction Map
RMH8824 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
RMH8824 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+30+30007310+3
Rep000-30-319221-3
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133447
Republican213051
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553124
piepiepie

Analysis

GOP holds on to the Senate despite a Hillary victory. While the National GOP continued the Pro-Trump charade, Senate Republicans quietly spoke of a Senate majority as a check and balance of the new Clinton Administration. My boldest prediction? New Hampshire will go for Ayotte if Clinton wins and for Hassan if Trump wins.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 15

50/50 chance of either party winning control of the US Senate. Will likely construct final map tomorrow with personal opinions. Up to now, I have relied almost solely on 538 for predictions.


Version: 14

50/50 Senate with Tim Kaine casting the deciding vote. Senate control to the Democrats.


Version: 11

GOP chances of keeping the Senate increase slightly. Final predictions next Monday.


Version: 10

Rick Perry once called Donald Trump a cancer on the Republican Party. Looking at how he is beginning to affect down ballot races, it's not hard to imagine why.


Version: 9

If Trump slips more in the polls, you may see Rubio have to work harder in Florida. Otherwise, the hardcore toss ups are set: North Carolina, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Nevada.


Version: 8

I'm going to try to just leave my prediction like this for a while.


Version: 7

GOP holds tight, tight majority<br /> Key GOP Pickup: Nevada<br /> Key GOP Holds: Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina<br /> Key Dem Pickups: Indiana, Pennsylvania<br /> GOP 51 Dem 49


Version: 6

Senate Makeup: GOP 50 Dem 50. Tie breaker vote goes to the new Vice President, whether that is former Virginia Senator Tim Kaine or Indiana Governor Mike Pence. Key pickup for Republicans in Nevada and key holds in North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida. Marco Rubio's political career survives, in a toss up race, as does Richard Burr's and Roy Blunt's. Overall vote trends towards the Democrats as most races swing about five points towards the Dems from their 2010 results. Maggie Hassan/Kelly Ayotte race comes down to the wire. Evan Bayh returns to the Senate in GOP Indiana. Tammy Duckworth bests Mark Kirk and Russ Feingold also makes a return, defeating polarizing Ron Johnson. John McCain and Chuck Grassley both win easily despite early competitiveness. Lack of GOP bench in California, New York, and Hawaii continue to frustrate. Louisiana Senate race goes to runoff. (For the love of Christ, Louisiana, don't vote for Duke.)


Version: 5

Senate losses as a result of Trump candidacy. (Based on 5-point swing from 2010 results).


Version: 4

Showing Senate races in their most competitive matchups according to RCP (contains old data and unrealistic matchups)


Version: 2

LOL!


Version: 1

Idk lol


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 31/35 27/35 58/70 82.9% pie 1 3 15T
P 2018 Governor 30/36 23/36 53/72 73.6% pie 1 5 164T
P 2016 President 50/56 33/56 83/112 74.1% pie 24 1 114T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 24/34 55/68 80.9% pie 16 1 2T
P 2016 Governor 11/12 5/12 16/24 66.7% pie 8 2 25T
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 132 72T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 25/36 60/72 83.3% pie 35 0 21T
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 38 0 15T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 40 17T
Aggregate Predictions 223/250 159/250 382/500 76.4% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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