Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:16
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 68)
Analysis
GOP holds on to the Senate despite a Hillary victory. While the National GOP continued the Pro-Trump charade, Senate Republicans quietly spoke of a Senate majority as a check and balance of the new Clinton Administration. My boldest prediction? New Hampshire will go for Ayotte if Clinton wins and for Hassan if Trump wins.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 15 50/50 chance of either party winning control of the US Senate. Will likely construct final map tomorrow with personal opinions. Up to now, I have relied almost solely on 538 for predictions. Version: 14 50/50 Senate with Tim Kaine casting the deciding vote. Senate control to the Democrats. Version: 11 GOP chances of keeping the Senate increase slightly. Final predictions next Monday. Version: 10 Rick Perry once called Donald Trump a cancer on the Republican Party. Looking at how he is beginning to affect down ballot races, it's not hard to imagine why. Version: 9 If Trump slips more in the polls, you may see Rubio have to work harder in Florida. Otherwise, the hardcore toss ups are set: North Carolina, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Version: 8 I'm going to try to just leave my prediction like this for a while. Version: 7 GOP holds tight, tight majority<br /> Key GOP Pickup: Nevada<br /> Key GOP Holds: Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina<br /> Key Dem Pickups: Indiana, Pennsylvania<br /> GOP 51 Dem 49 Version: 6 Senate Makeup: GOP 50 Dem 50. Tie breaker vote goes to the new Vice President, whether that is former Virginia Senator Tim Kaine or Indiana Governor Mike Pence. Key pickup for Republicans in Nevada and key holds in North Carolina, Missouri, and Florida. Marco Rubio's political career survives, in a toss up race, as does Richard Burr's and Roy Blunt's. Overall vote trends towards the Democrats as most races swing about five points towards the Dems from their 2010 results. Maggie Hassan/Kelly Ayotte race comes down to the wire. Evan Bayh returns to the Senate in GOP Indiana. Tammy Duckworth bests Mark Kirk and Russ Feingold also makes a return, defeating polarizing Ron Johnson. John McCain and Chuck Grassley both win easily despite early competitiveness. Lack of GOP bench in California, New York, and Hawaii continue to frustrate. Louisiana Senate race goes to runoff. (For the love of Christ, Louisiana, don't vote for Duke.) Version: 5 Senate losses as a result of Trump candidacy. (Based on 5-point swing from 2010 results). Version: 4 Showing Senate races in their most competitive matchups according to RCP (contains old data and unrealistic matchups) Version: 2 LOL! Version: 1 Idk lol
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