Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-08-27 Version:1

Prediction Map

Ernest Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Ernest Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	20
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	18
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+1	+5	0	-1	-1	7	2	9	+4
Rep	0	+1	+1	-4	-1	-5	18	1	19	-4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	34	48
Republican	20	30	50
Independent	0	2	2

pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	30	19

Analysis

Initial prediction. Looks like the Democrats will just take the Senate back.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	52/56	32/56	84/112	75.0%		12	5	575	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	17/35	47/70	67.1%		1	24	358	T	423
2018 Senate	29/35	17/35	46/70	65.7%		1	356	362	T	483
2016 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%		14	10	325	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	19/34	49/68	72.1%		1	73	120	T	362
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%		1	19	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%		48	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	26/33	58/66	87.9%		22	0	2	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%		2	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	36/52	13/52	49/104	47.1%		18	-	75	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%		2	3	21	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	29/37	62/74	83.8%		1	3	17	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%		1	137	92	T	103
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%		79	1	100	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	28/33	61/66	92.4%		17	2	2		465
2006 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%		16	2	6	T	312
2004 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%		47	1	66	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	568/627	396/627	964/1254	76.9%

User Info

Ernest Forum Profile

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