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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-14 Version:20
Prediction Map
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Analysis
Still not convinced that the shifts seen during the Kavanaugh confirmation fight will stick generally, but the shift in Tennessee has been enough that I feel I should at least switch it to Republican. A few other percentage and confidence adjustments as well, reflecting what looks like a more uncertain environment for the time being.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 25 Only some very minor percentage changes for the second-to-last map. Version: 24 Just some minor updates to percentages, nothing else. Still wishing we had decent non-partisan polling in several of these races. But no, we get 30 billion polls of Texas instead. Version: 23 A few big moves for this update, the biggest almost certainly being moving Missouri from Democratic to Republican. I don't know if that will stick, given the lack of recent non-partisan polling there, but it felt like the right move at the moment. I've also changed Florida from Tossup to Lean Democratic, given that the Senate race there seems to be paralleling the Gubernatorial race more closely now. Among the tossups, I feel like Arizona and Indiana are probably somewhat tilting Democratic, Tennessee is tilting Republican, and Missouri and Nevada are the closest to pure tossups. Version: 22 Reversing last week's change and moving Indiana back to Tossup. Version: 21 This may prove to be a bad idea, but I'm moving Indiana to Lean Democratic. On the other hand, I increasingly feel like I may have to switch one or two of the Tossup Democratic seats to Republican in the near future. Version: 20 Still not convinced that the shifts seen during the Kavanaugh confirmation fight will stick generally, but the shift in Tennessee has been enough that I feel I should at least switch it to Republican. A few other percentage and confidence adjustments as well, reflecting what looks like a more uncertain environment for the time being. Version: 19 Declining to make any changes on this map, just updating for the sake of consistency. I know there has been some movement in the polling lately attributed to the controversy over the Kavanaugh nomination, but I need to wait to see if that holds or is just a temporary shift before I react to it. The point is to predict where the election will be in November, not predict what will happen if the election were held today, and a month is a lifetime in politics right now. Version: 18 One fairly big move on this map, with North Dakota switching from Tossup to Lean Republican. This was a move that looked like it was coming for a while, but I needed just a bit more polling to push it over the line. Version: 17 Only some very minor percentage adjustments. Version: 16 Only one major update - moving West Virginia to Safe Democratic. I know a lot of people will question this, but Manchin's lead has been large enough and consistent enough for a long enough time that I feel comfortable doing so. Version: 15 Switched Missouri - and thus control of the Senate - back to Democratic. Also shifted the special election in Minnesota from Lean Democratic to Safe Democratic. Version: 14 Changed Florida to Democratic and Missouri to Republican. Version: 13 One small but important change, moving Florida, and thus control of the Senate, from Democratic to Republican. Version: 12 Once again, just some very minor percentage shifts. Version: 11 No major changes for this map, just some minor percentage shifts. Version: 10 Only two major changes for this map: Tennessee switches back to Democratic, and New Jersey moves from Safe Democratic to Lean Democratic. While I doubt the race in New Jersey will end up close - given the partisan lean of that state in federal elections, as well as the overall national mood - it does at least look close at the moment. Version: 9 Only change from the last map is Tennessee, which goes back to Republican. Version: 8 Back to a map with Democrats taking the Senate, this time with Bredesen winning Tennessee. Version: 7 A somewhat more unconventional map, with Nelson losing in Florida but the other vulnerable Democrats all holding on. Version: 6 Only one minor change from the last map, switching Ohio from Lean Democratic to Safe Democratic. The Democratic position in the national generic ballot seems to be rebounding, so not overreacting in my last prediction was probably the right move. Also, it's amazing how little new state-by-state polling there is right now. Version: 5 No net changes, just swapping two of the tossups, North Dakota and Missouri. I'm a bit concerned by the recent uptick in polling for Republicans nationally, but I'm waiting to see if it sticks or is instead just noise before reacting to it. Version: 4 Feeling a bit less optimistic at the moment. Not changing West Virginia just yet, given the lack of public polling there, but I could see it moving to Tossup soon. Version: 3 Biggest update here is probably shifting Arizona to Lean Democratic - I think I'm actually more confident about that race than I am about Nevada right now. All the other changes are minor, in my view. Version: 2 It really just does not feel right in my gut to be putting up a map with Democrats winning the Senate, but the math is there for it. I suspect I'll be flipping back and forth between a 50-50 tie and a 51-49 Democratic majority for most of the rest of the year. Version: 1 Am I really doing this again?
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