Date of Prediction: 2018-10-23 Version:2
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
About high time I updated this; probably final predictions here unless something very drastic happens. No shift in the Senate; the parties exchange NV and ND. McSally, McCaskill, and Donnelly are all skin-of-their-teeth wins. Cruz and Nelson are both high double-digits and cross 50.
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Comments History
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Version: 1 Democratic gains against Heller and the open seat in Arizona seem like surer bets than holds in IN/MO, to be honest. Several sets of seats in the Leans D category:<br /> - Baldwin and Nelson: Dems in "swing" states that I suspect to be vulnerable<br /> - Heitkamp and Tester: Mountain West Dems that I don't really expect to be vulnerable, but this can't be ruled out<br /> - Brown and Manchin: Appalachian Dems that I don't really expect to be vulnerable, but this can't be ruled out<br /> - King and Menendez: Given uncertainties regarding electoral system and corruption, races can't be called safe<br /> <br /> Called TX/TN as Leans R. I expect lots of sturm und drang in those seats, and quite possibly close results, but not actual flips.<br /> <br /> Mean result is D+1 for a 50-50 Senate. Gut says 51-49 D but even with how the environment is shaping up that may be optimistic for Dems.
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