Date of Prediction: 2018-11-02 Version:10
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Analysis
Yet again I have moved Arizona into the democratic column for right now, but who knows if it will stay that way with only four more days which is hard to believe.
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Version: 10 Yet again I have moved Arizona into the democratic column for right now, but who knows if it will stay that way with only four more days which is hard to believe. Version: 9 After looking at some new polling I analyzed that Bill Nelson has been currently ahead in polling agains my previous prediction. Therefore I have moved Florida in the tilt Democratic column <40%. New polls out of north Dakota showing Kevin Cramer up 10% to 16% have caused me to move North Dakota into the safe Republican column. This is likely because of the Kavanaugh hearings and the fact that it is North Dakota which generally votes republican with 70% of the vote. Version: 8 Moved Nevada into the Republican Column for Dean Heller after his constant leads in recent Polling. Democrat Debbie Stabenow is now only ahead by 9 points in a recent poll leading me to conclude that senate race will narrow down. Version: 7 Moved Arizona into the Republican Column due to Sinemas berating of Arizona in a released speech. Version: 6 Moved Florida into the Republican column after Governor Scotts handling of the natural disaster in the panhandle. Made New Jersey lean democratic >50%. Version: 5 Moved Tennessee into the lean republican column and moved Nevada into the tossup column. Version: 4 Moved Indiana into the Tossup Column and dropped the Donelly victory to >40% Version: 3 Moved Missouri into the Republican Column. Version: 2 Moved Michigan into the safe democratic column <br />
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