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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:11

Prediction Map
man_of_honor885 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
man_of_honor885 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem24
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos5
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+2-20-2220220
Rep+20+2-1-1-25270
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic242347
Republican94251
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
533320
piepiepie

Analysis

This is finally it. With the election on the horizon this is my final prediction for the us senate


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: man_of_honor885 (R-PA) 2018-11-07 @ 06:16:17 prediction Map
Well after seeing the true results what really surprised me was that Mike Braun won Indiana by such a large margin. Also it seems that Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis have won florida by narrow margins.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:30:57 prediction Map
I was surprised by FL and IN too. I think the polls underestimated Trump's popularity in FL, which helped Republicans, and overestimated the Democratic candidates popularity. Indiana was probably not as huge as a surprise since it's solidly Republican normally. I think Donnelly acting "Republican lite" actually backfired on him there, and actually cost him more votes than it gained for him, especially from the Democratic base there.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:32:05 prediction Map
Most were surprised by Nevada, but the polls always seem to underestimate Democrats there for whatever reason, unlike many other states where they overestimate Dems instead.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2020 President
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie
P 2018 Senate 33/35 20/35 53/70 75.7% pie 11 0 132T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 24/36 56/72 77.8% pie 6 2 94T
Aggregate Predictions 65/71 44/71 109/142 76.8% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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