Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:6
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
11/6/18: Final map. I agree the Atlas consensus, Dems gain 2 (Arizona, Nevada), lose 1 (North Dakota). New senate 50-50. O'Rourke will make it close in Texas, but Texas is a pink, not yet purple, state.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 5 10/29/18: No real changes. It seems that Indiana, Missouri and Nevada will be the closest contests. Version: 4 11/16/18: Three weeks out,the two nail-biters will be Missouri and Nevada. New Jersey, West Virginia and Montana seem to lean D; Tennessee and Texas lean R. Dems will probably win Arizona but lose North Dakota. So D +2, R +1, for 50-50.<br /> Version: 3 7/31: Bredensen has a real shot against Blackburn in Tennessee. I continue to hold the two most vulnerable Democratic seats are Indiana and North Dakota. Version: 1 11/14/17: At this point, Arizona and Nevada seem to lean D.
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