This might be a bit optimistic. A few explanations about the map:<br /> <br /> I really wish there was a "Likely" option on the confidence map. I would put NJ, VA, and ME in the "Likely" category.<br /> <br /> UT, WY, NE, and both MS seats on the GOP side are all obviously self-explanatory. Same for CA, HI, WA, NY, MD, DE, MA, RI, CT, and VT.<br /> <br /> MN-1 and NM are seats that I put in the extreme landslide category. Almost certain holds.<br /> <br /> Dem TX is a constant fantasy. Not going to happen this year.<br /> <br /> TN is another seat Dems are way too optimistic about. The rural and suburban areas Bredesen won in 2002 and 2006 have shifted sharply toward the GOP since then.<br /> <br /> It's too early to make real predictions in AZ. Primaries haven't happened yet, so polls are meaningless.<br /> <br /> I think Heller has a better chance than a lot of people think. He won in 2012 even while Obama won NV by 7 pts. His advertising against Rosen has also been very strong.<br /> <br /> In defense of my general optimism, I think that Republicans have a lot of things going for them. A strong economy, the active campaigning of a president with very high intraparty popularity, the cancelling of the August recess, the fight over SCOTUS. All that the Dems have is gradually fading anti-Trump fervor and midterm opposition advantage.