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Date of Prediction: 2018-01-24 Version:1

Prediction Map
Vosem MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Vosem MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem25
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Tos2
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+200023023+2
Rep000-1-1-2516-2
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic25025
Republican606
Independent202
pie

Analysis

Democratic gains against Heller and the open seat in Arizona seem like surer bets than holds in IN/MO, to be honest. Several sets of seats in the Leans D category:<br /> - Baldwin and Nelson: Dems in "swing" states that I suspect to be vulnerable<br /> - Heitkamp and Tester: Mountain West Dems that I don't really expect to be vulnerable, but this can't be ruled out<br /> - Brown and Manchin: Appalachian Dems that I don't really expect to be vulnerable, but this can't be ruled out<br /> - King and Menendez: Given uncertainties regarding electoral system and corruption, races can't be called safe<br /> <br /> Called TX/TN as Leans R. I expect lots of sturm und drang in those seats, and quite possibly close results, but not actual flips.<br /> <br /> Mean result is D+1 for a 50-50 Senate. Gut says 51-49 D but even with how the environment is shaping up that may be optimistic for Dems.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate /33 /33 /66 % pie
P 2016 President 44/56 23/56 67/112 59.8% pie 3 0 597T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 16/34 47/68 69.1% pie 4 0 213T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 8 2 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 7 2 22T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 0 98T
Aggregate Predictions 142/164 85/164 227/328 69.2% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Mississippi1 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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