PredictionsEndorse2018 Senatorial Predictions - drewmike87 (D-WI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2017-11-14 Version:1

Prediction Map
drewmike87 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
drewmike87 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Tos9
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+2-20-2210210
Rep+20+2-1-1-25160
Ind0000002020


Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic232346
Republican84250
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
503119
piepiepie

Analysis

No gain/loss for either party. Dems gain AZ and NV, while GOP gains MO and IN ... GOP will come up just short in WV, ND, MT, WI, and OH, despite these states supporting Trump and having a recent Republican streak ... Old, established Senators will prevail in FL, PA, MI, and MN ... TX stays GOP, though Beto keeps it well within single digits ... UT could be fractured by a third party, but it is staying GOP, whether it be Romney or Hatch ... CA will reelect Feinstein whether her opponent is GOP or Dem, and she manages to get in the 60's on Election Day ... King in ME finishes right around 50% in a 3-way ME race, while Bernie cruises in VT, getting in the 60's with a Dem opponent, or 70's if it's only a GOP opponent ... Kaine in VA wins by a decent margin and doesn't reenact the Warner drama in '14 ... NJ will remain D, Menendez or otherwise ... WA, HI, MA, RI, CT, NY, MD and DE are obvious Dem holds. TN (despite open seat), MS, NE, and WY are obvious GOP holds ... Dems will take the House and pick up a bunch of Gov's races.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2021 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 71 48T118
P 2018 Senate 31/35 19/35 50/70 71.4% pie 1 357 246T483
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 116 40T149
P 2016 President 51/56 21/56 72/112 64.3% pie 1 359 527T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 16/34 47/68 69.1% pie 1 359 213T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 5/12 12/24 50.0% pie 1 359 164T279
Aggregate Predictions 123/141 63/141 186/282 66.0% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Minnesota2 Mississippi1 Mississippi2 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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