Version 2. Assumes Biden leads the ticket. Now that I've looked at more polling, NC is a clear tossup. I moved TX to tossup as well as it will winnow once a challenger is formalized. Iowa is now a toss-up. AZ is lean-D because Kelly is slaying it in the polls. ME will be closer than I previously thought. Need to see more polling that is actually reliable out of Georgia and Kentucky.

Version 7.

Updated for late September.

Version 5. Moved the Arizona special to Safe / Strong Dem. I think Kelly wins by 10 easily. Tempted to do the same with Michigan, but it'll be closer. Also Iowa is definitely in toss-up territory now. The 2020 Senate elections are going to be wild due to obvious reasons.

Version 4. I think Georgia will split unless people show up and vote in the special election run-off in January 2021.

Version 3. There are going to be a lot more states in play than what I had previously thought due to the coronavirus pandemic which has killed 101,000+ Americans so far. This count is going to increase exponentially after so many states recently opened up way too early (could be well over 600,000 or even close to 1 million). If the election happened today, I think the Dems would pick up 1 seat... ...in Georgia. And then five others lmao

Version 2. Assumes Biden leads the ticket. Now that I've looked at more polling, NC is a clear tossup. I moved TX to tossup as well as it will winnow once a challenger is formalized. Iowa is now a toss-up. AZ is lean-D because Kelly is slaying it in the polls. ME will be closer than I previously thought. Need to see more polling that is actually reliable out of Georgia and Kentucky.