Election 2020 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	18
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	0	+4	-1	0	-1	10	1	11	+3
Rep	+1	0	+1	-6	0	-6	14	3	17	-5
Ind	+2	0	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2

Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	15	33	48
Republican	18	30	48
Independent	2	2	4

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
50	31	19

Analysis

The two Georgia seats both go to runoff elections. I would handicap Perdue (R) as the favorite against Ossoff, but Warnock (D) as the favorite against Loeffler or Collins.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	56	1	T	115
2022 Senate	35/35	28/35	63/70	90.0%	2	4	16	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	26/36	60/72	83.3%	2	4	66	T	272
2020 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	5	6	130	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	3	4	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	6	10	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	102	14	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	4	1	24	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	4	3	94	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	28	1	T	149
2016 President	47/56	17/56	64/112	57.1%	12	2	628	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	7	23	164	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	4/12	12/24	50.0%	4	68	164	T	279
Aggregate Predictions	322/354	218/354	540/708	76.3%

Links

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