Election 2020 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2020-03-30 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	22
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	0	+2	-1	0	-1	10	1	11	+1
Rep	+1	0	+1	-2	0	-2	17	4	21	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	33	46
Republican	22	30	52
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	33	21

Analysis

The Senate stays Republican, 52-48. Narrow losses in ME, MT, and NC (and Doug Jones' close loss in AL) are particularly frustrating to Democrats. <br /> <br /> Kansas could be close if Kris Kobach is nominated.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	39/56	89/112	79.5%	4	71	434	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	21/35	54/70	77.1%	1	221	101	T	423
2019 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	44	1	T	192
2018 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	2	225	306	T	483
Aggregate Predictions	115/129	82/129	197/258	76.4%

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