PredictionsEndorse2020 Senatorial Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:65

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Tos10
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+30+3-10-110111+2
Rep+10+1-30-317320-2
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic143347
Republican213051
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
553223
piepiepie

Analysis

FINAL SENATE PREDICTIONS:<br /> <br /> Race for Control of Senate close as GOP closes strong.<br /> <br /> The GOP is closing strong in several hard fought races that will decide Senate control, including Iowa, Montana, Alaska and South Carolina, dashing Democrats hoping of gaining a sizable majority, and maybe their hopes of Senate control at all.<br /> <br /> Two seats are certain to flip Colorado and Alabama, essentially. Cory Gardner ran one of the best campaigns this cycle, but the blue tide in Colorado is too much to overcome. <br /> <br /> Then there are the high endangered GOP senators Susan Collins, Martha McSally and Thom Tillis. Of the three, Collins is likely in the most danger, as Trump is certain to lose Maine by double digits. Collins needs a sizable chunk of Biden voters to also support her--a tall order as her popularity in the state tanked. It remains unclears what impact if any ranked choice voting in Maine will have...but a Collins win would be a major upset. Tillis and McSally need to match Trump's coattails to have a good shot at winning. McSally is running against an undefined, popular non-politician in Mark Kelly. Tillis and his opponent Cunningham have both been dented by scandal and problems. In 2016 no candidate for Senate won while the other party's presidential nominee was carrying the state. Does this hold true? I'm betting it does. So, Tillis wins by a nose, McSally loses by a couple of points, same with Collins. So the Democrats are up net two seats. But they need one more. Before last week it seemed like the 51st seat would be Iowa but Ernst is closing strong and now has the edge, and it looks like Trump shored up his position in Iowa. Montana has likewise been close, but Trump will win the state by serval points and Daines is well positioned. There is no credible evidence Republicans are in serious danger in Kansas, Texas, Alaska, etc. Democrats had high hopes for Jamie Harrison to upset Lindsay Graham in South Carolina, but despite a massive fundraising haul, Graham stabilized his position and is favored to win. The same is true of Republican hopes of pulling off upsets in Michigan or Minnesota. The Republicans need to find a few more points somewhere to win. Minnesota and Michigan, like South Carolina are very close but not enough for the upset to materialize. It looks like Georgia is headed to two run-off races. It seems Doug Collins is surging at just the right time, so he may advance to the run off over Loeffler. Georgians will get enjoy all the national attention being on them. Merry Christmas!! But Republicans have historically performed well in Georgia runoffs.<br /> <br /> At the end of the day the battle for the Senate is coming down North Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina. But voters, sensing a Biden win may seek a check on him, and in any case the GOP in the waning days improved their odds of both control and limiting their downside.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 246
P 2023 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 6 2 74T115
P 2022 Senate 35/35 28/35 63/70 90.0% pie 49 1 16T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 49 1 23T272
P 2020 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 111 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 65 4 66T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 19 21 51T293
P 2019 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 10 130T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T372
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T300
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T106
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T103
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 816/884 586/884 1402/1768 79.3% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Georgia2 Georgia3 Georgia3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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