Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:65
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
FINAL SENATE PREDICTIONS:<br /> <br /> Race for Control of Senate close as GOP closes strong.<br /> <br /> The GOP is closing strong in several hard fought races that will decide Senate control, including Iowa, Montana, Alaska and South Carolina, dashing Democrats hoping of gaining a sizable majority, and maybe their hopes of Senate control at all.<br /> <br /> Two seats are certain to flip Colorado and Alabama, essentially. Cory Gardner ran one of the best campaigns this cycle, but the blue tide in Colorado is too much to overcome. <br /> <br /> Then there are the high endangered GOP senators Susan Collins, Martha McSally and Thom Tillis. Of the three, Collins is likely in the most danger, as Trump is certain to lose Maine by double digits. Collins needs a sizable chunk of Biden voters to also support her--a tall order as her popularity in the state tanked. It remains unclears what impact if any ranked choice voting in Maine will have...but a Collins win would be a major upset. Tillis and McSally need to match Trump's coattails to have a good shot at winning. McSally is running against an undefined, popular non-politician in Mark Kelly. Tillis and his opponent Cunningham have both been dented by scandal and problems. In 2016 no candidate for Senate won while the other party's presidential nominee was carrying the state. Does this hold true? I'm betting it does. So, Tillis wins by a nose, McSally loses by a couple of points, same with Collins. So the Democrats are up net two seats. But they need one more. Before last week it seemed like the 51st seat would be Iowa but Ernst is closing strong and now has the edge, and it looks like Trump shored up his position in Iowa. Montana has likewise been close, but Trump will win the state by serval points and Daines is well positioned. There is no credible evidence Republicans are in serious danger in Kansas, Texas, Alaska, etc. Democrats had high hopes for Jamie Harrison to upset Lindsay Graham in South Carolina, but despite a massive fundraising haul, Graham stabilized his position and is favored to win. The same is true of Republican hopes of pulling off upsets in Michigan or Minnesota. The Republicans need to find a few more points somewhere to win. Minnesota and Michigan, like South Carolina are very close but not enough for the upset to materialize. It looks like Georgia is headed to two run-off races. It seems Doug Collins is surging at just the right time, so he may advance to the run off over Loeffler. Georgians will get enjoy all the national attention being on them. Merry Christmas!! But Republicans have historically performed well in Georgia runoffs.<br /> <br /> At the end of the day the battle for the Senate is coming down North Carolina, North Carolina, North Carolina. But voters, sensing a Biden win may seek a check on him, and in any case the GOP in the waning days improved their odds of both control and limiting their downside.
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