PredictionsEndorse2020 Senatorial Predictions - cwech (D-WA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:2

Prediction Map
cwech MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
cwech MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
35 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+70+7-10-110111+6
Rep+10+1-70-713316-6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic183351
Republican173047
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
503020
piepiepie

Analysis

Tinkered with several races. I shifted Ossoff in Georgia to tossup Dem pickup because my theory of this race is that it will track the Presidential winner. I just shifted Georgia to Biden, I expect that to carry Ossoff over the finish line. I left South Carolina tossup when I think it's probably closer to a lean Graham, but it's not egregious. I shifted Michigan to lean Peters due to more favorable polling since the last time. I shifted New Hampshire to strong because I think there was a mistake in there last time. There might be something else.<br /> <br /> I think the two most interesting races will be in Montana and Iowa where I have Democrats picking up seats in spite of Trump carrying the state. I expect those to be extremely close races that may take several days to sort out the winner or pull a Minnesota Franken-Coleman and spend a few months fighting over every single ballot.<br /> <br /> Tuesday can't get here fast enough.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 6 130T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 20/35 50/70 71.4% pie 2 4 274T423
P 2016 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 2 25 369T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 0 164T362
P 2014 Senate 31/36 18/36 49/72 68.1% pie 3 6 231T382
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 4 14 47T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 17/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 8 144T343
P 2010 Senate 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 12 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 91T312
P 2008 President 54/56 38/56 92/112 82.1% pie 13 1 178T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 7 1 96T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 86T264
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 25 3 88T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 11/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 15 207T312
Aggregate Predictions 512/549 330/549 842/1098 76.7% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Georgia2 Georgia3 Georgia3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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