Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:2
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (117th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
Tinkered with several races. I shifted Ossoff in Georgia to tossup Dem pickup because my theory of this race is that it will track the Presidential winner. I just shifted Georgia to Biden, I expect that to carry Ossoff over the finish line. I left South Carolina tossup when I think it's probably closer to a lean Graham, but it's not egregious. I shifted Michigan to lean Peters due to more favorable polling since the last time. I shifted New Hampshire to strong because I think there was a mistake in there last time. There might be something else.<br /> <br /> I think the two most interesting races will be in Montana and Iowa where I have Democrats picking up seats in spite of Trump carrying the state. I expect those to be extremely close races that may take several days to sort out the winner or pull a Minnesota Franken-Coleman and spend a few months fighting over every single ballot.<br /> <br /> Tuesday can't get here fast enough.
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