Date of Prediction: 2022-11-07 Version:9
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
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Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 2 Feeling less confident that Hassan will lose. She is still very vulnerable but it is an uphill climb for the Republicans to flip the seat, especially with Sununu staying in the governor's mansion. Version: 1 Some early thoughts on competitive races and flips: NH: Hassan and Biden have sagging approval numbers in a state where voters are finicky and tend to break against the incumbent party. A half-decent Republican candidate can win the seat. PA: Oz's celebrity power will likely push him through. GA: The one I'm least sure about, like with the gubernatorial race it will depend on if the pro-Republican political environment can outrun demographic changes. WI: RoJo will be saved by the political environment and his state's rightward trend. AZ: The political environment will likely sink Kelly. NV: Cortez Masto's polling numbers haven't been great, so the political environment may sink her.
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