Date of Prediction: 2022-11-07 Version:6
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
I'm not going to lie, I'm feeling a sense of near-overwhelming despair for what politics in this country has become. While there is a chance Democrats could beat their polls by the point or so that would be necessary and hold on to a majority in the Senate tomorrow - and indeed there is evidence of Democratic overperformance happening in the special elections over the summer due to voter anger at the Supreme Court - the odds of that happening tomorrow simply feel remote to me. The public is on the verge of electing a cavalcade of conspiracy theorists and authoritarians into power in the Congress - and also state legislatures and governorships across America - and I really don't know how long this country and our democracy will be able to survive what increasingly feels like a widely ascendant fascist political movement.
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