PredictionsEndorse2022 Senatorial Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2022-11-07 Version:6

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
35 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
35 |
50 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Tos5
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-20-211112-2
Rep+20+200015621+2
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic123446
Republican232952
Independent022
pie

Analysis

I'm not going to lie, I'm feeling a sense of near-overwhelming despair for what politics in this country has become. While there is a chance Democrats could beat their polls by the point or so that would be necessary and hold on to a majority in the Senate tomorrow - and indeed there is evidence of Democratic overperformance happening in the special elections over the summer due to voter anger at the Supreme Court - the odds of that happening tomorrow simply feel remote to me. The public is on the verge of electing a cavalcade of conspiracy theorists and authoritarians into power in the Congress - and also state legislatures and governorships across America - and I really don't know how long this country and our democracy will be able to survive what increasingly feels like a widely ascendant fascist political movement.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate /34 /34 /68 % pie 304
P 2022 Governor /37 /37 /74 % pie 271
P 2020 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 18 6 359T684
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 523/578 367/578 890/1156 77.0% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

Back to 2022 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved