PredictionsEndorse2022 Senatorial Predictions - RMH8824 (R-IA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2022-11-03 Version:5

Prediction Map
RMH8824 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
RMH8824 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
35 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Non15
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
35 |
50 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Tos5
 
Non15
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-20-211112-2
Rep+20+200015621+2
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic123446
Republican232952
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
603228
piepiepie

Analysis

May update this one more time. If not, well, here's the final map. With relevant state analysis.<br /> <br /> Alaska: I believe Murkowski will win once the second choice voice are all counted. Seat will stay with the GOP regardless<br /> <br /> Arizona: As of now, I have Blake Masters winning on election night and Mark Kelly winning the recount. Iykyk<br /> <br /> Colorado: This race refuses to get closer. Bennett by about 6.<br /> <br /> Connecticut: A blue state re-elects Blumenthal. Some polls last week made this look close, but new polls show the incumbent up by about 15 points.<br /> <br /> Florida: An impressive Democrat party simping for Val Demings has fizzled out. Rubio by 11-12<br /> <br /> Georgia: Well, I'll be damned. I think Walker is going to pull this out. I even have him winning without a runoff<br /> <br /> Illinois: Duckworth is one of the more likeable Democrat Senators, and Illinois is blue. Otherwise, she could have had a tough race here given national conditions<br /> <br /> Iowa: In a scenario of an unpopular Republican president with midterms looming, Grassley would be in big trouble. Mike Franken has ran a surprisingly strong campaign, and most Iowa Republicans are holding their nose for the 89-year old re-elect.<br /> <br /> Louisiana: All-GOP runoff?<br /> <br /> Nevada: I think this is the time the Republicans aren't over-polled. Laxalt has been one of the stronger Republican candidates this cycle.<br /> <br /> New Hampshire: This rate has tightened a lot. Despite the uneasiness after his primary win, GOP voters have coalesced to Bolduc. I still think Hassan ekes out a win here<br /> <br /> North Carolina: A more Pro-Dem cycle would have given a strong Dem candidate in Beasley a real shot. Looks like Budd should win here.<br /> <br /> Ohio: Tim Ryan has looked strong at times, but JD Vance looks like one of the stronger Pro-Trump candidates this cycle.<br /> <br /> Pennsylvania: I don't know that Dr. OZ has ever looked that great. But John Fetterman is clearly not in condition to be a Senator. Shame on PA Democrats for making him run.<br /> <br /> Utah: I have this as Safe GOP. McMullin's candidacy is intruiging and he might have done well in a more Anti-GOP climate.<br /> <br /> Washington: Wow. Who had this one being close? Tiffany Smiley has ran a great campaign. Would be a terrific upset.<br /> <br /> Wisconsin: Ron Johnson has ran a terrific campaign. Thought he would be in real trouble here.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 32/35 28/35 60/70 85.7% pie 5 5 48T305
P 2022 Governor 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 4 5 66T272
P 2020 President 52/56 45/56 97/112 86.6% pie 5 6 103T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 16/35 47/70 67.1% pie 3 4 358T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 6 10T293
P 2018 Senate 31/35 27/35 58/70 82.9% pie 1 3 15T483
P 2018 Governor 30/36 23/36 53/72 73.6% pie 1 5 164T372
P 2016 President 50/56 33/56 83/112 74.1% pie 24 1 114T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 24/34 55/68 80.9% pie 16 1 2T362
P 2016 Governor 11/12 5/12 16/24 66.7% pie 8 2 25T279
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 132 72T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 25/36 60/72 83.3% pie 35 0 21T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 38 0 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 40 17T153
Aggregate Predictions 382/423 283/423 665/846 78.6% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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