Date of Prediction: 2022-11-03 Version:5
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 70)
Analysis
May update this one more time. If not, well, here's the final map. With relevant state analysis.<br /> <br /> Alaska: I believe Murkowski will win once the second choice voice are all counted. Seat will stay with the GOP regardless<br /> <br /> Arizona: As of now, I have Blake Masters winning on election night and Mark Kelly winning the recount. Iykyk<br /> <br /> Colorado: This race refuses to get closer. Bennett by about 6.<br /> <br /> Connecticut: A blue state re-elects Blumenthal. Some polls last week made this look close, but new polls show the incumbent up by about 15 points.<br /> <br /> Florida: An impressive Democrat party simping for Val Demings has fizzled out. Rubio by 11-12<br /> <br /> Georgia: Well, I'll be damned. I think Walker is going to pull this out. I even have him winning without a runoff<br /> <br /> Illinois: Duckworth is one of the more likeable Democrat Senators, and Illinois is blue. Otherwise, she could have had a tough race here given national conditions<br /> <br /> Iowa: In a scenario of an unpopular Republican president with midterms looming, Grassley would be in big trouble. Mike Franken has ran a surprisingly strong campaign, and most Iowa Republicans are holding their nose for the 89-year old re-elect.<br /> <br /> Louisiana: All-GOP runoff?<br /> <br /> Nevada: I think this is the time the Republicans aren't over-polled. Laxalt has been one of the stronger Republican candidates this cycle.<br /> <br /> New Hampshire: This rate has tightened a lot. Despite the uneasiness after his primary win, GOP voters have coalesced to Bolduc. I still think Hassan ekes out a win here<br /> <br /> North Carolina: A more Pro-Dem cycle would have given a strong Dem candidate in Beasley a real shot. Looks like Budd should win here.<br /> <br /> Ohio: Tim Ryan has looked strong at times, but JD Vance looks like one of the stronger Pro-Trump candidates this cycle.<br /> <br /> Pennsylvania: I don't know that Dr. OZ has ever looked that great. But John Fetterman is clearly not in condition to be a Senator. Shame on PA Democrats for making him run.<br /> <br /> Utah: I have this as Safe GOP. McMullin's candidacy is intruiging and he might have done well in a more Anti-GOP climate.<br /> <br /> Washington: Wow. Who had this one being close? Tiffany Smiley has ran a great campaign. Would be a terrific upset.<br /> <br /> Wisconsin: Ron Johnson has ran a terrific campaign. Thought he would be in real trouble here.
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