Election 2022 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2022-11-08 Version:13

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	24
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	21
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-3	0	-3	10	1	11	-3
Rep	+3	0	+3	0	0	0	15	6	21	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	34	45
Republican	24	29	53
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	31	25

Analysis

Key Race Margins Arizona - Masters +2.0 Colorado - Bennet +6.4 Florida - Rubio +9.1 Georgia - Walker +1.6 Nevada - Laxalt +2.9 New Hampshire - Hassan +0.7 North Carolina - Budd +7.8 Ohio - Vance +9.8 Pennsylvania - Oz +2.3 Washington - Murray +7.6 Wisconsin - Johnson +5.8 R+3

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					247
2022 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	13	0	147	T	305
2022 Governor	31/36	27/36	58/72	80.6%	14	0	104	T	272
2020 President	51/56	41/56	92/112	82.1%	17	13	307	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	24/35	56/70	80.0%	7	11	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	1	176	3	T	293
Aggregate Predictions	156/173	126/173	282/346	81.5%