Election 2022 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2022-11-07 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	21
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-1	0	-1	12	1	13	0
Rep	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	34	48
Republican	21	29	50
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	34	24

Analysis

Many are saying Oz and Walker will win in PA/GA, but I'm not sure about that. Laxalt winning in NV is almost a clear likelihood at this point, but even there I'm not sure. AZ will most likely break for Kelly, but the margin will be extremely close. I don't see WI, OH, and NC electing a Democrat in this midterm cycle.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	34/35	24/35	58/70	82.9%	1	1	97	T	305
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	6	48	T	118
2020 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%	7	187	502	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	2	32	137	T	423
2020 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	1	369	275	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	3	17	35	T	192
Aggregate Predictions	129/142	88/142	217/284	76.4%