Final prediction: Control of Senate is a jump ball, but Democrats have a slight edge to retain control of the upper chamber.<br /><br /> Democrats entered the cycle almost certain to lose control of the upper chamber, however a combination of lousy candidate selection by the GOP, the Dobbs decision, a solid fundraising has been enough to keep the Democrats in the game. Still, Bidens low approval rating, and voter concerns about the economy and crime have been more than enough to keep the GOP in contention for control. There's a considerable amount at stake here, especially for the Democrats, who will have to go into 2024 having to defend Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. Democrats run the risk of sinking into a hole in the Senate that could require several cycles to pull themselves out of. <br /><br /> For a long period of time, it has been quite clear that the battle for control of the Senate would come down to the core four of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. This is still the case today. Wisconsin and New Hampshire provide both parties with some good chances at additional pickups. And Colorado and North Carolina present as longer, long shots for the parties. <br /><br /> In Arizona, Mark Kelly the incumbent presents as an affable astronaut. His opponent is a political neophyte with a number of far right positions in Peter Theil acolyte Blake Masters. Masters is an exceedingly odd choice here, but he's managed to close the gap with Kelly, an indication of the poor environment for Dems. Arizona is trending to being a swing state, but is still a few hues redder than the nation. Bottom line is the Kelly is probably going to hold on by the skin of his teeth, but just barely. We may not know who's won for several days.<br /><br /> Likewise Catherine Cortez Masto is locked in a tight race with Adam Laxalt. Laxalt was one of the better candidate recruits this cycle, and for a while it appeared that Cortez Masto was the most endangered Democrat incumbent. This race looks to be exceedingly tight. Giving to Cortez Masto, but just barely. Jon Ralston, the Nevada politics expert believes Cortez Masto has just enough of a vote edge to pull it out.<br /><br /> Pennsylvania pits Lt. Gov John Fetterman v. TV personality and physician Mehmet Oz. Oz was another exceedingly weird choice for the GOP, by Oz has slowly and surely consolidated the GOP base and is now even money against Fetterman. Fetterman suffered a stroke, and had a poor debate performance that might have spooked some voters. Oz has been hammering Fetterman over crime, while Fetterman has done his best to troll Oz as being a phony and a carpetbagger. Fetterman had a solid edge for most of this race, but that has evaporated. I expect Oz to lead early, and then Fetterman will being closing the gap. I also think Josh Shapiro who is cruising to victory in will give Fetterman some coattails. Still this could end up needing a recount.<br /><br /> Now to Georgia where Sen. Warnock and football star Walker square off. Needless to say, it defies credulity to think that someone with all the baggage and gaffes of Walker could pull out the win, although he definitely could. Much like Arizona, Georgia is developing into a swing state, but it's not there yet, and the Dem wins in Georgia in 2020 come off as being more a product of Trump than any other factor. Still, the big question is whether or not either Walker or Warnock can clinch victory without a runoff. I expect neither will, and much as in 2021, there will be another Georgia Senate runoff, and much like 2021, this very well could determine control of the Senate.<br /><br /> The Democrats have a realistic pickup opportunity in Wisconsin, which continues to be close. Sen. Ron Johnson is controversial and for most of this cycle looked very endangered. Democrats nominated Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes. Barnes' profile is a bit too leftwing for a key swing state with lots of white working class voters. Johnson has capitalized on this, and has been hammering Barnes on the airwaves. Still this race remains quite close, although in the past I've been a victim of Ron Johnson is doomed for reelection because he's too controversial hype. This time I'm not going for it, so I think Johnson pulls the win out.<br /><br /> New Hampshire is a bit more of a surprise, although Maggie Hassan would've been very endangered had Gov. Chris Sununu decided to enter the race. So Republican nominated Don Bolduc, who has touted a variety of rightwing conspiracies. Recently, Bolduc has begun closing the gap, and this is now a tossup, but Hassan retains the edge for victory. Still this is a sign of a poor environment for the Democrats. <br /><br /> Republicans have a lower tier opportunity for a win in Colorado. Sen. Bennet has never been a strong performer, and Colorado, although getting much bluer in recently cycles can still be won by a Republican under the right condition. Republicans got a good candidate in O'Dea, who espouses a variety of moderate stances, but there's no indication O'Dea in the running.<br /><br /> Likewise a lower tier shot for the Democrats exists in North Carolina. Ted Budd faces off against Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former state supreme court judge who's won statewide. Democrats probably wish they'd nominated Beasley last cycle, but, oh well, them's the breaks. Budd is an alright candidate. North Carolina has consistently given Democrats the short end of the stick, and the rural vote in the state consistently gives Republicans the edge. This race likely will be no exception and so Budd will likely win this one by a couple of points. <br /><br /> There continues to be no indication that Dems are in trouble in Washington State.<br /><br /> Florid and Ohio have simply gotten away from the Democrats. Democrats got maybe the best candidate they ever could've hoped for in Ohio with Rep. Tim Ryan. Ryan is running about the best race this cycle. JD Vance is a former Never Trumper turned Trump toady. But it just won't matter: Ohio has simply gotten redder and Gov. Mike DeWine is probably going to win his race by double digits, giving Vance some strong coattails. <br /><br /> Democrats have to understand the Sen. Marco Rubio knows what he's doing in Florida. Democrats did nominate a credible candidate in Val Demmings, but much like Ohio, Florida is getting redder, and Rubio, although his position on abortion is out of step with state, knows how to win and the Florida Latinos are trending Republican. Republicans might even win in Miami Dade county.<br /><br /> In Iowa, Sen. Grassley who's been in politics since the 50's, in seeking yet another term in his late 80s. Age is an issue, but the quality Selzer poll has Grassley up by double digits. He'll win, but it'll his closest race in ages.<br /><br /> In Alaska, Republicans will hold it no matter what, but the question is whether Murkowski ekes out another win. I suspect she will. Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola, who will also likely win, endorsed Murkowski and both women have overlapping voters and constituencies. <br /><br /> Utah pits Republican Sen. Mike Lee against Independent Evan McMullin. This has had potential as a sleeper race. Utah has never been Trump country and Lee was shown to have been involved with Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election. It looks like the national environment combined with Utah's heavy Republican tilt will be enough to get Lee over the finish line this time. The other Senate races are safe and don't merit mention. Bottom line: Fight for Senate is a tossup, with Democrats narrowly favored. Again, this one might be decided by a Georgia runoff, and in any event, enough races are close that any outcome is possible and we may not know for several days.