Election 2022 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2022-11-01 Version:1

Prediction Map

HarryHayfield Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

HarryHayfield Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-2	0	-2	11	1	12	-2
Rep	+2	0	+2	0	0	0	15	6	21	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (118th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	12	34	46
Republican	23	29	52
Independent	0	2	2

pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
52	32	20

Analysis

Based on what I have seen in the UK, I am of the opinion that GA and AZ will be the only states to flip.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%						249
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%		1	93	74	T	115
2022 Senate	32/35	20/35	52/70	74.3%		1	7	243	T	305
2020 President	54/56	36/56	90/112	80.4%		13	7	392	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	21/35	50/70	71.4%		1	5	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%		1	7	147	T	293
2016 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%		14	0	149	T	678
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%		2	0	72	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	16/36	50/72	69.4%		2	1	217	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	13/36	40/72	55.6%		2	1	241	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%		2	11	98	T	153
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%		18	1	401	T	760
2012 Senate	22/33	6/33	28/66	42.4%		1	267	334	T	343
2012 Governor	8/11	2/11	10/22	45.5%		1	30	220		228
2012 Rep Primary	41/52	12/52	53/104	51.0%		48	-	64	T	231
2011 Governor	2/4	0/4	2/8	25.0%		1	33	100	T	106
2010 Senate	27/37	13/37	40/74	54.1%		3	2	391	T	456
2010 Governor	28/37	14/37	42/74	56.8%		3	2	230	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%		2	1	41	T	103
2008 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%		22	0	442	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	11/33	41/66	62.1%		2	8	334	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%		1	47	152	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	27/52	8/52	35/104	33.7%		33	-	127	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	15/49	56/98	57.1%		32	-	21	T	235
2007 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%		1	65	155	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	12/33	43/66	65.2%		7	1	328	T	465
2006 Governor	25/36	7/36	32/72	44.4%		3	26	301	T	312
2004 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%		16	1	283	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	699/834	357/834	1056/1668	63.3%

User Info

	HarryHayfield Forum Profile
	HarryHayfield Senatorial Endorsements

Links

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