2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt's stopped updating apparently.

Oh come on I want that little drop of read in Southern Hesse's sea of Black (or Blue). Just because! (And yes, I understand that Paris would just take another Social Democrat's seat. And that he is an empty windbag who makes my mom vote List SPD, constituency Green. Still. It's not as if anybody knows his opponent either.)

[big bad fab]

If only it'd be a preview of national results in late September... (sigh)

[Hash]

Frankfurt's stopped updating apparently.

Oh come on I want that little drop of read in Southern Hesse's sea of Black (or Blue). Just because! (And yes, I understand that Paris would just take another Social Democrat's seat. And that he is an empty windbag who makes my mom vote List SPD, constituency Green. Still. It's not as if anybody knows his opponent either.)

A lot of things have stopped updating. There haven't been any new Wahlkreise results for a good time now.

[minionofmidas]

Doing a by-constituency right* minus left# 2003-9 comparison... just to put things into perspective. ;D

I JUST REMEMBERED: A FEW BORDERS CHANGED.

01 Kassel rural -4.9 (-5.1)'
02 Kassel suburban -9.9 (-4.4)
03 Kassel city W -12.6 (-9.8)
04 Kassel city E -17.8 (-14.3)
05 Waldeck +13.0 (-9.4)
06 Frankenberg +9.1 (-13.1)
07 Schwalm-Eder N -7.3 (-4.4)
08 Schwalm-Eder S -0.5 (-8.4)
09 Eschwege -0.0 (-4.3)
10 Rotenburg +1.7 (-5.2)
11 Hersfeld +2.3 (-5.3)
12 Biedenkopf +1.9 (-11.7)
13 Marburg -8.5 (-17.6)
14 Fulda +36.5 (-14.1)
15 Fulda rural +37.5 (-12.3)
16 Dill Valley +24.5 (-2.8)
17 Wetzlar +9.9 (-7.8)
18 Gießen -8.6 (-16.4)
19 Gießen rural not yet up +7.1 (-12.1)
20 Vogelsberg +10.5 (-12.2)
21 Limburg +35.0 (-6.0)
22 Weilburg +20.9 (-5.0)
23 Hochtaunus E +30.8 (-2.2)
24 Hochtaunus W +33.7 (-0.7)
25 Wetterau SW +19.0 (-5.1)
26 Wetterau E +11.0 (-9.6)
27 Wetterau NW +18.8 (+8.7) New seat. Just for kicks, compared to abolished seat of Wiesbaden C.
28 Rheingau +22.3 (-6.9)
29 Niedertaunus +18.4 (-3.9)
30 Wiesbaden W +6.1 (-12.8)
31 Wiesbaden E +17.0 (0)
32 Main-Taunus N +35.3 (-0.5)
33 Main-Taunus S +20.4 (-4.8)
34 Frankfurt W +11.9 (-7.8)
35 Frankfurt NW -4.3 (-6.2)
36 Frankfurt WC +6.6 (-1.9)
37 Frankfurt S +9.2 (-3.6)
38 Frankfurt EC -14.5 (-3.2)
39 Frankfurt NE +7.6 (-8.4)
40 Hanau suburban +16.8 (-2.5)
41 Hanau +14.7 (-3.5)
42 Kinzig Valley +18.4 (-6.8)
43 Offenbach +1.0 (-13.4)
44 Dreieich +16.2 (-4.2)
45 Offenbach suburbs +22.4 (-7.3)
46 Rodgau +22.9 (-8.4)
47 Rüsselsheim +0.3 (-5.6)
48 Ried +4.7 (-1.0)
49 Darmstadt N -14.0 (-11.1)
50 Darmstadt S -0.3 (-6.8)
51 Darmstadt suburbs +5.5 (-4.8)
52 Dieburg +11.8 (-7.6)
53 Odenwald +6.6 (-3.8)
54 Bergstraße W +19.2 (-4.0)
55 Bergstraße E +17.0 (-6.3)


* CDU and FDP. List vote.
# SPD and Greens for 2003, SPD, Greens and Left for 2009. List vote.
' to explain the format: Left outpolled Right by 4.9. Which was 5.1 more than in 2003, when the Right was ahead by 0.2.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map of direct seat results so far;

[minionofmidas]

CDU has won Frankfurt 5.

[Hash]

CDU has won Frankfurt 5.

Greenies won list vote

[minionofmidas]

CDU has won Frankfurt 5.

Greenies won list vote

Scant consolation.

[Hash]

Direct seats and list vote. 18 and 19 left.

[minionofmidas]

Re Frankfurt 5. I think I misremembered where 281 04 is - confused it with 282 04. I might have called this with 3 precincts out otherwise. (Paris won it, for all that - by 9 votes. Not comparable to what was needed.)

Ah yes, putting both lead and absolute voteshare makes sense with these results. Good map!

[minionofmidas]

SPD ahead of Greens by 0.145% in Frankfurt. CDU+FDP under 50% of the vote (but ahead of Greens, SPD, Left) on under 60% turnout.

[minionofmidas]

We have a result. (Oh, and Gießen elected a Social Democrat. How could I forget that?)

[minionofmidas]

Turnout 61.0 (-3.3)
CDU 37.2 (+0.4)
SPD 23.7 (-13.0)
FDP 16.2 (+6.8)
Greens 13.7 (+6.2)
Left 5.4 (+0.3)

[minionofmidas]

*waits for a Frankfurt map from Al*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Post thik link and thou can have it

===

Direct seats map;

[Hash]

For completion's sake.



Working on a secondvote map for the 5 biggies, now. Did Greenies and Linke already.

[minionofmidas]

I prefer to type things down.

Altstadt       t 58.8 C 32.7 S 19.4 G 19.0 F 18.4 L 8.2
Innenstadt  t 48.6 C 30.0 F 20.0 G 18.5 S 18.5 L 9.9
Gutleut/Bhv t 53.8 C 25.1 G 22.1 S 20.1 F 18.8 L 10.8
Gallus          t 44.8 C 26.2 S 24.6 G 18.4 F 13.4 L 13.2
Bockenheim t 62.0 C 25.3 G 24.4 S 20.2 F 17.4 L 10.3
West End S  t 69.0 C 33.8 F 27.7 G 17.6 S 11.9 L 5.0
West End N  t 63.5 C 33.8 F 24.3 G 18.6 S 15.0 L 6.2
North End W t 68.1 C 28.0 G 27.8 F 19.1 S 16.4 L 7.0
North End E  t 66.4 G 32.5 C 21.6 S 18.8 F 14.5 L 10.5
Bornheim      t 59.8 G 26.4 C 25.8 S 21.9 F 13.1 L 9.7
East End       t 59.5 C 27.4 G 25.1 S 20.4 F 16.3 L 8.2
Sachsenh N   t 64.7 C 29.7 G 23.9 F 21.0 S 17.0 L 6.4
Sachsenh S   t 64.8 C 37.7 F 20.4 G 19.1 S 15.3 L 5.4
Oberrad        t 58.8 C 35.9 S 19.8 G 17.9 F 14.8 L 8.0
Niederrad     t 55.8 C 34.4 S 20.7 G 16.9 F 16.4 L 7.8
Schwanheim t 56.3 C 38.4 S 21.4 F 15.3 G 14.2 L 6.2
Griesheim     t 45.2 C 35.9 S 23.7 F 14.6 G 12.4 L 8.0
Nied              t 53.1 C 37.9 S 23.2 F 14.2 G 12.8 L 7.9
Höchst          t 48.8 C 30.0 S 23.9 G 18.3 F 13.3 L 10.0
Sindlingen    t 50.8 C 41.1 S 22.0 F 11.6 G 11.4 L 7.5
Zeilsheim     t 53.9 C 46.5 S 19.8 F 13.3 G 10.1 L 5.9
Unterliederb t 55.7 C 40.7 S 19.5 F 15.5 G 14.6 L 5.7
Sossenheim t 49.8 C 44.2 S 19.4 F 14.6 G 11.1 L 7.2
Rödelheim    t 58.5 C 31.6 S 19.7 G 19.4 F 14.4 L 11.0
Hausen        t 61.0 C 32.0 S 24.6 G 16.6 F 13.8 L 8.7
Praunheim   t 59.3 C 34.2 S 21.5 G 17.5 F 14.5 L 8.2
Heddernh    t 59.0 C 32.3 S 22.0 G 18.7 F 14.8 L 8.1
Niederursel  t 56.5 C 35.1 S 22.4 G 16.4 F 14.7 L 7.3
Eschersheim t 65.0 C 34.4 G 19.6 S 19.2 F 17.7 L 6.7
Ginnheim      t 61.6 C 31.3 S 21.6 G 18.9 F 15.6 L 9.3
Dornbusch    t 67.0 C 33.8 G 19.6 F 19.1 S 18.6 L 6.8
Eckenheim    t 52.8 C 30.6 S 22.6 G 18.2 F 15.5 L 9.9
Preunges/Be t 60.2 C 33.1 S 20.4 G 18.5 F 17.0 L 7.2
Bon/Ff. B.      t 54.8 C 32.0 S 22.8 G 17.1 F 14.1 L 9.3
Kalbach         t 69.7 C 38.3 F 20.3 S 17.3 G 16.6 L 4.7
Nieder-Eschb t 57.6 C 38.3 S 19.4 F 16.0 G 13.8 L 6.6
Nieder-Erlenb t 73.0 C 42.4 F 18.0 S 17.4 G 14.1 L 4.1
Harheim         t 72.8 C 42.9 F 18.3 S 15.5 G 15.5 L 4.6 SPD and Greens tied for third.
Seckbach       t 61.9 C 36.7 S 21.1 G 17.2 F 16.1 L 6.4
Riederwald    t 49.0 S 30.7 C 25.9 L 14.5 G 13.5 F 9.6
Fechenheim   t 49.0 C 34.1 S 24.9 G 14.5 F 12.8 L 9.2
Bergen-Enkh  t 67.5 C 36.5 S 19.0 F 18.4 G 17.0 L 5.4

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Working on it now

[minionofmidas]

Allocation of 110 seats based on list result...

CDU 42 (0), SPD 27 (-15), FDP 19 (+8), Greens 16 (+7), Left 6 (0). Very close between the 43nd CDU and 19th FDP seat.

However, as the CDU won 46 seats, the smallest total that gives them 46 is used. This is 118.

CDU 46 (+4), SPD 29 (-13), FDP 20 (+9), Greens 17 (+8), Left 6 (0).

Had Paris won Frankfurt 5, the CDU would have received only 45 seats and the total size of the chamber would have been 116.

CDU 45 (+3), SPD 29 (-13), FDP 19 (+8), Greens 17 (+8), Left 6 (0). Somehow, I like that result better. I wonder why.
Anyhow, this means that Paris winning would have cost three currently elected MdL's their seat: the woman who beat him, the last SPD list candidate to get in, and the last FDP list candidate to get in.

Lastly, here's seat distribution using the rules of a Welsh or Scottish list constituency (D'Hondt; overhang seats not just kept and not evened out but actually nicked from the other parties. No unnatural threshold.)

CDU 46, SPD 26, FDP 17, Greens 15 , Left 5, FW 1.

[minionofmidas]

In the constituency vote, SPD won Gallus, Gutleut/Bahnhof, North End E, Bornheim, and the Riederwald. Greens didn't win anything.

[minionofmidas]

Working on it now

If it's not too late, could you include a turnout map?

[minionofmidas]

Working on a secondvote map for the 5 biggies, now. Did Greenies and Linke already.

CDU's hardly needed, one would think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Working on it now

If it's not too late, could you include a turnout map?

No, it's not too late . Should be done in a couple of hours, assuming that I go and get a drink at some point. Sooner if I don't.

[Hash]

Working on it now

If it's not too late, could you include a turnout map?

Did it for completion's sake

[minionofmidas]

Al - take your time. Unless it's up in the next couple of minutes I won't look at it til tomorrow.

Hash - great map. You've got an error in the Green map around Darmstadt though. CDU around Kassel, too. Damn enclaves.