Washington state megathread

[Meeker]

Since I don't think these were ever posted, here's the end of Q3 fundraising numbers for WA-01:

Andrew Hughes - 142 raised, 57 CoH
Darshan Rauniyar - 110 raised, 100 CoH
Laura Ruderman - 81 raised, 149 CoH
Roger Goodman - 76 raised, 60 CoH
Steve Hobbs - 54 raised, 49 CoH
Marko Liias - 49 raised, 25 CoH

Only Rauniyar and Ruderman are running legitimate campaigns IMO.

[bgwah]

She has the name rec and the money. There's no reason to think she won't win. If she only had one major challenger then they might have a chance of knocking her off, but with the rest of the field split six ways? Pretty damn difficult.

Well I've voted for her before, I guess. She's pretty left-wing at least.

I've never even heard of Rauniyar.

[Meeker]

Of course the wildcard in this all is whether DelBene gets in and writes herself a $2 million check on day one. Then Burner is in serious trouble.

[bgwah]

I have a bad feeling Sammamish will be left in the 8th district, though.

In which case I'll probably vote for David Spring or whatever joke candidate is put up against the 8th Reich.

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2016669442_eymans_er_mitchells_message_to.html

lol

[LastVoter]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

[Meeker]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

Heh.

They aren't going to be done until after Christmas.

[bgwah]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.

[LastVoter]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.

I thought I-90 district would be like 55% dem?

[CultureKing]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.

I thought I-90 district would be like 55% dem?

No. Much more likely it would be somewhere around 55% Republican. You are basically blending the moderate areas of King county with Kittitas and maybe Chelan counties (it depends on exactly how they split it).

By the way what's everyone's thoughts on Ron Sims? Has he come back to run for Seattle Mayor or what? I was at a forum last night with Sims and he seemed to hint at a run.

[bgwah]

Did they finally draw the maps for congressional district? I really hope they made the I-90 district democratic if there is one.

The point of an I-90 district is to make Reichert a safe district, so that's not gonna happen.

I thought I-90 district would be like 55% dem?

No. Much more likely it would be somewhere around 55% Republican. You are basically blending the moderate areas of King county with Kittitas and maybe Chelan counties (it depends on exactly how they split it).

By the way what's everyone's thoughts on Ron Sims? Has he come back to run for Seattle Mayor or what? I was at a forum last night with Sims and he seemed to hint at a run.

Totally random speculation on my part, but if they did create the majority-minority district, Sims could probably win it fairly easily. Though I think he said he didn't like living in DC, so who knows...

Googling "Ron Sims mayor" yields numerous results, though.

[Seattle]

The state wants to/is going to investigate Aaron Reardon...... Any thoughts?

[Meeker]

The timing seems... odd... but the Prosecuting Attorney in Snohomish is a Democrat so I can't claim an obvious partisan motivation.

[RI]

The state wants to/is going to investigate Aaron Reardon...... Any thoughts?

Already voted for him. I'm kinda suspicious that they waited until five days before the election to announce this. I'm not a big Roe fan though.

[bgwah]

This won't necessarily hurt Reardon. The average voter will realize the political nature of it right before an election.

Hope's internals must suggest he's losing.

And even though nobody replied to it, I'm kind of wondering if Mitchell's desperation means Hague is leading.

[bgwah]

Oh nevermind, looks like that race is just plain nasty: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2016683462_mitchellad04m.html

"He is an agent for a vicious murderer and seems indifferent to my family's pain and anguish."

[greenforest32]

http://www.kplu.org/post/seattle-think-tank-floats-state-capital-gains-tax

So how does raising taxes work in Washington now after the supermajority ballot measure:

1. A 2/3 legislative vote and it's enacted
2. A 2/3 legislative vote and a referendum affirming the increase
3. A legislative referral to the ballot (via a simple majority legislative vote) to approve the increase
4. A legislative referral to the ballot (via a 2/3 legislative vote) to approve the increase

?

[bgwah]

I think the 2009 initiative made it so a 2/3 legislative majority or voter approval is required, but not both.

The legislature can modify an initiative after two years. That's how they passed the candy tax. But Tim Eyman has no problem proposing the same initiative every two years, and in fact probably likes not having to come up with new ideas...

[greenforest32]

Got it. These supermajority requirements are crazy. I bet they look at how it's worked out for Republicans in California (and the U.S. Senate with the filibuster) and just drool.

It's a shame there are so many people who want to make pointless gridlock inherent in the system

[CultureKing]

Anyone want to post predictions for tomorrow?

[bgwah]

I'll throw some out...

NOTE: You are not allowed to make fun of my probably-incorrect predictions tomorrow unless you also post predictions.

I-1125: 52-48 No
I-1183: 54-46 Yes

I'm not gonna do numbers for local races:

Snoho Exec: Reardon narrowly wins, by less than he did in the primary
Kingco #6: It will be close, and I think it's a toss-up... but I want Mitchell to win, so I'll say  he wins narrowly (good enough tie-breaker for me )
Seattle: All incumbents win except Godden, who will narrowly lose to Forch. (I haven't followed this race or seen polling, complete guess!)
4th LD: The faithless elector loses.

[CultureKing]

Well, mine will probably be just as wildly off as yours (we really don't have any polls to work with do we?):

I-1125: 53-47 NO
I-1163: 58-42 NO
I-1183: 54-46 NO

I feel like the electorate is going to be ready to vote down almost anything they can, also Costco really screwed up I-1183, the debate morphed to become Costco vs. the State.

[RI]

Might as well...

I-1125: 53-47 No (might be wishful thinking, but Eyman's crap has been voted down a lot lately)
I-1163: 54-46 Yes ()
I-1183: 52-48 Yes (Total guess, but I have a feeling it will pass)

Snohomish County Executive: I think Rearden will win narrowly, but it would surprise me if Mike Hope pulled off the upset. He's fairly well-liked for a Republican around here, I have no idea how the potential investigation of Rearden affects things though I can't imagine it helping him, and, at least as of now, the rural and exurban areas are turning out more heavily than the Everett/Lynnwood area. I'll say 51-49 Rearden.

I'm sure I'll miss on some if these.

[Seattle]

While no one here probably cares.... I'm guessing (and hoping!) that all the Seattle School Board loses, with exception of Harium Martin-Morris. I think Peter Maier and Steve Sundquist are probably goners. Sherry Carr less so and Martin-Morris the least.

I-1125: 52-48  No
I-1163 - 55-45 No (Although that's just a pure guess)
I-1183 - 51-49 Yes

I'd also like to see Port of Seattle commisioner Bill Bryant gone.

[bgwah]

Why do you guys think 1163 will fail? I wouldn't be surprised to see it get something like 59-41 yes, maybe even a lot higher for yes.