2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Big FDP votes in the rural parts.

e.g. 5 Waldeck municipalities in already -

CDU between 43.2 (Willingen) and 32.6 (Edertal)
SPD between 33.8 (Edertal) and 19.8 (Willingen)
Greens at 9.2 to 10.8 except a much weaker result in Willingen (6.1)
Left at 3.0 to 4.8
FDP at 15 to 19 and at 25.3 in Willingen!

[Tender Branson]

The Paris vs. Wiesmann race is getting close again ...

[minionofmidas]

Seems to be the biggest place wholly in so far: Schlitz (a collection of Vogelsberg villages, basically. And a little old town for which it's named.)

Registered voters   7 891   -66
Votes cast   4 724   -288
turnout   59,9   -   -3,1
invalid votes   180   3,8   +55   +1,3
valid votes   4 544   96,2   -343   -1,3
CDU   1 696   37,3   -21   +2,2
SPD   1 092   24,0   -816   -15,0
FDP   745   16,4   +262   +6,5
GRÜNE   524   11,5   +262   +6,1
DIE LINKE   259   5,7   +3   +0,5
REP   29   0,6   -32   -0,6
FREIE WÄHLER   112   2,5   +60   +1,4
NPD   59   1,3   -10   -0,1
PIRATEN   26   0,6   +11   +0,3
BüSo   2   0,0   0   0,0
and 62 votes for 2008 parties that didn't run anymore.

[minionofmidas]

Innenstadt (my Stadtteil)

3131 registered voters
1523 votes cast (48.6, about the same as last time around)
450 CDU (30.0. This is down a tad.)
300 FDP (20.0)
278 Green (18.5)
277 SPD (18.5)
148 Left (9.9)
46 other (3.1)

Yes, the SPD slipped from first to fourth. While winning a precinct, which is more than Greens and FDP could do. (The FDP fell short by one vote in the less populated, but more affluent where it is populated, western part. It also came a distant second in the postal vote.)

[minionofmidas]

Wiesmann's ahead again... let's have a look at what's still out.

Guesstimated for Paris - 130 04, 212 02, 222 02, 222 03, 240 02, 252 03, 261 01, 272 03, 272 06, 281 04
Guesstimated for Wiesmann - 201 03, 203 02, 203 03, 281 01
Either I overlooked one, or they divided one, or there's a postal precinct out as well. Those Holzhausen precincts (203 02 and 03) still out are worrying.

EDIT to make a strike list.

[minionofmidas]

And while I did that, they updated. One Paris precinct in, and for Paris. And the mystery precinct in, and for Wiesmann. I *think* it was indeed a postal one.

[minionofmidas]

Contrary to election.de's prediction of 4 seats for the SPD, Infratest dimap is predicting 10 (I see no list).

Current statewide estimate:
CDU 37.1
SPD 23.9
FDP 15.9
Greens 14.0
Left 5.2
other 3.9

Seat distribution estimate:
CDU 45 (+3)
SPD 29 (-13)
FDP 19 (+8)
Greens 17 (+8)
Left 6 (0)

Note the overhang - first time ever that this'll happen in Hesse.

Time to check who these extra FDP and Greens people will be, methinks.

[minionofmidas]

Somewhere big is in. Kassel's largest (and quite industrial. VW has a factory here.) suburb of Baunatal.

reg'd voters   21 773   +68
votes cast   13 176   -648
turnout   60,5   -3,2
invalid   568   4,3   +150   +1,3
valid   12 608   -798

CDU   3 849   30,5   +190   +3,2
SPD   4 956   39,3   -1 971   -12,4
FDP   1 455   11,5   +621   +5,3
GRÜNE   1 390   11,0   +587   +5,0
DIE LINKE   620   4,9   -154   -0,9
REP   59   0,5   -54   -0,3
FREIE WÄHLER   144   1,1   +111   +0,9
NPD   77   0,6   +14   +0,1
PIRATEN   46   0,4   +24   +0,2
BüSo   12   0,1   +8   +0,1

[minionofmidas]

Oh great, the list of new FDP MP's includes a law student who's younger than me but called "Hans-Christian".
Of the Frankfurt Greens, Bocklet's in (back in after a year, actually). Martina Feldmayer'll be losing out narrowly. Shame. Other way round would be much nicer.

[minionofmidas]

One of that string of wealthiest Frankfurt suburbs up on the Taunus slope... Kronberg.

reg'd    13 162   -133
votes cast   9 656      -315
turnout   73,4   -1,6
invalid   195   2,0   +53   +0,6
valid votes   9 461   98,0   -368   -0,6
CDU   4 309   45,5   -360   -2,0
SPD   1 297   13,7   -976   -9,4
FDP   2 255   23,8   +624   +7,2
GRÜNE   1 184   12,5   +427   +4,8
DIE LINKE   267   2,8   -28   -0,2
REP   35   0,4   -10   -0,1
FREIE WÄHLER   54   0,6   +31   +0,4
NPD   18   0,2   -13   -0,1
PIRATEN   36   0,4   +22   +0,3
BüSo   6   0,1   +3   +0,1

[minionofmidas]

Wiesmann's lead up to 392 votes, but still too close for concessions.

[minionofmidas]

Constituencies!
I'm cutting off at 15% here.

Hersfeld CDU 34.8 (+0.6), SPD 34.3 (-10.6). SPD retains on constituency vote, though.
Kassel West CDU 28.7 (+1.9), SPD 25.7 (-14.2), Greens 21.1 (+7.0). CDU takes seat. Then again, they won this even in 1995 (it was one of two trend-bucking 1999 losses due to an increase in vote splitting, along with Frankfurt 5).
Kassel East SPD 32.2 (-13.3), CDU 28.4 (+2.4), Greens 15.9 (+6.9). Hold (predicted even on election.de)
Odenwald CDU 36.4 (+0.7), SPD 26.8 (-13.5) CDU gain
Waldeck CDU 38.2 (+0.7), SPD 26.9 (-10.8), FDP 17.3 (+6.6). A narrow hold on the constituency vote last time around. Much easier now, of course.
Frankenberg CDU 36.9 (+0.8), SPD 28.1 (-11.4), FDP 16.2 (+6.9). Constituency vote lead was less than half that, but still a gain.

[minionofmidas]

281 01 voted for Paris. With 5 precincts out the lead is down to 160, and 4 of them will be for Paris (including the one I grew up in!) Still, there's one of those West-End-in-the-North-End precincts still missing as well.

[minionofmidas]

Three precincts out, lead down to 39 votes. Where I grew up was unsatisfactory - too many Greens (Bocklet tied Wiesmann) and thus less of a lead than could have been gotten out of it.

Starting to think that Paris will lose. By less than in 2003 (when he lost by 85 votes ) but still.

[minionofmidas]

Limburg, Weilburg, Hochtaunus East and Vogelsberg constituencies listed as "waiting for release". Vogelsberg result is actually available as a *district* - they're identical.

CDU 36.5 (+0.5), SPD 27.0 (-12., FDP 15.8 (+6.. Left up to over 5. (Seems the Left lost votes in the North and gained in the South.) Seat an easy CDU regain, of course. The other three listed above are safe CDU seats anyhow.

[minionofmidas]

unlikely recruits to the list of precincts with Greens in second place...

one precinct in Sossenheim. lolz. With a result of CDU 230, Greens 79, FDP 78, SPD 77, Left 28. Double lolz.

[Franzl]

my town (Groß-Umstadt) is boring/average as always:

CDU 35.3
SPD 25.7
FDP 15.8
Green 14.7
Left 5.2

[minionofmidas]

Best. Precinct. Result. Ever. This is just northwest of the Bockenheimer Warte between Leipziger and Sophien. Includes the new-built stuff there but isn't limited to that.

581 votes.
CDU 109 19,1%
SPD 111 19,5%
FDP 122 21,4%
Greens 158 27,7%
Left 59 10,4%
other 11 1,9%
invalid 11

[Franzl]

two interesting results:

Königstein im Taunus: (rich suburbs of Frankfurt)

CDU 47.6
FDP 27.6
Greens 10.7
SPD 10.5
Left 2.1


Marburg (always incredibly left-wing, not entirely sure why)

SPD 29.9
CDU 24.1
Greens 22.7
FDP 12.3
Left 9.1

[minionofmidas]

Sanity prevails as the SPD wins in the Riederwald (unlike a certain mayoral election...)

turnout 49.0
SPD 30.7
CDU 25.9
Left 14.5
Greens 13.5
FDP 9.6

Greens win not only North End East but Bornheim as well. Anywhere else for the CDU. FDP comes second in both parts of the West End but, rather surprisingly, 3rd in the Dornbusch (Greens 19.6, FDP 19.1, SPD 18.6) and 4th in Eschersheim (Greens 19.6, SPD 19.2, FDP 17.7). Oh come on Eschersheim, you can do worse than that... Left under 5% only in Kalbach, Nieder-Erlenbach, Harheim and Westend S, by a vote or three in the latter case.

With one precinct still out, Frankfurt 5 remains too close too call. Oh, and with 5 precincts citywide still out, I might go check whether there's still an off chance that the Greens beat the SPD.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not actually ruling it out. Unlikely, of course.

[minionofmidas]

With one precinct still out, Frankfurt 5 remains too close too call.

One for the list vote, three for the constituency vote actually. Which means that one posh precinct is still out. Which makes Wiegmann's continued 39-vote lead more comfortable, o/c.

[minionofmidas]

Looks as if the SPD has won either 8 or 9 constituencies btw: Both Kassel rural, Kassel east, both Schwalm-Eder, Rotenburg, Hersfeld (but shockingly not Eschwege. Well, kudos to election.de for that one), Marburg. And possibly Frankfurt 5.

[minionofmidas]

What do you think about district votes in Darmstadt-Dieburg II?

I'd guess something like.....CDU +10%?

I'd guess the following:

Lautenschläger (CDU): 48% (+8)
Koch (SPD): 34% (-7)

Real result: 42-35. Yeah, I'm surprised as well.

[minionofmidas]

infratest dimap estimates of voter migrations (net).

SPD --> non-voting 203k
SPD --> Greens 121k
CDU --> FDP 88k
SPD --> CDU 35k
SPD --> FDP 29k
non-voting --> FDP 22k
Left --> non-voting 20k
other --> Greens 9k
non-voting --> other 8k
other --> FDP 7k
SPD --> Left 5k
CDU to Greens, Left, others, non-voting; SPD to Left, others, FDP to Left, Greens; Greens to Left, non-voters: negligible quantities (under 5k. Way within MoE.)

Of course these things really need not only a "reached voting age" table but also a "deceased since last election" table. (Less so this time than usually, due to the much smaller numbers involved. Still.)