2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[MaxQue]

How are the elections resolved in case of a tie?  I mean, w/ 3 polls to go in St. Norbert, PC is ahead by 7 votes

According to the Compendium produced by Elections Canada (a wonderful document, explaining electoral laws of each province in a simple way), Manitoba holds a by-election. (some provinces are doing a draw and some ask to the returning officer to choose who is elected.)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

How are the elections resolved in case of a tie?  I mean, w/ 3 polls to go in St. Norbert, PC is ahead by 7 votes

According to the Compendium produced by Elections Canada (a wonderful document, explaining electoral laws of each province in a simple way), Manitoba holds a by-election. (some provinces are doing a draw and some ask to the returning officer to choose who is elected.)

Link?

I remember some provinces hold by-elections, some take a name out of a hat, some flip a coin, and IIRC, Nova Scotia has the CRO cast the ballot, or, at least, did.

[Hatman 🍁]

The returning officer or some such person decides. Usually opts for some random measure such as drawing lots or coin toss.

[ag]

Looks like they are doing some recounting in St. Norbert. Still 3 polls missing, but now it's a 10 vote lead for NDP.

Update: and now it's 2 polls missing and 156 vote lead for NDP. Pity: I wanted a tie )

[MaxQue]

The returning officer or some such person decides. Usually opts for some random measure such as drawing lots or coin toss.

NO, NO, NO.

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=loi/com&document=index&lang=e

Page 61.

[MaxQue]

A short summary:

By-election: (Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Nunavut)
Decision of returning officier: (Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Ontario)
Drawing of lots: (Nova Scotia, Yukon)

Alberta has apparently no law on ties.

[ag]

Seems like NDP has picked the last two seats in serious doubt: St. Norbert (157 vote margin) and Kirkfield Park (29 vote margin). Brandon West (146 vote margin) went to PC. Subject to a possible recount, the final result seems to be

NDP 37
PC 19
Lib 1

Wow!

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'm curious how the NDP of Manitoba feels about proportional representation tonight.

[ag]

Smthg strange happening in Kewatinook. All evening long it seemed safe NDP, as it should. But, suddenly, it tightened up. W/ 52/57 polls reporting, NDP advantage is only 485 votes. So, PC might still eke out a 1-seat gain.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Some other FAQcts

Redistribution:

Canada, ON = after every full census
NL, NS, MB, SK = after every 10 years (basically, the same as above)
PEI = after every 3rd election
AB, BC, QC, YK = after every second election
NB = whenever they feel like it


Saskatchewan is the only place where British subjects can vote, and even then, you must have been able to do so in 1971.

Federal polling divisions must have at least 250 electors, but there is no upper limit. Other provinces generally follow that rule, but many more have upper limits and no lower limit.

Time Limits for election in days, Minimum - Maximum
Canada - 36 - N/A
NL - 21 - 30
PE - 26 - 32
NS - 30 - N/A
NB - 28 - 38
ON - 28 - 28
MB - 28 - 39
SK - 38 - 34
AB - 28 - 28
BC - 28 - 28
YK - 31 - N/A

Everywhere gets between 1 and 4 hours to go out and vote

Some interesting facts. In Nova Scotia you don't need to be an "Ordinary Resident" to run. So all you weirdos, sign up there! In NL, PE, NS, ON, and AB, you can run even if you are an MP. If you can an inmate you can inr in NL, PE, NS, NB, ON, BC, and YK.

Parties:

Federal
250 members, and 1 candidate
Commentary: open

NL
1000 members and 12 candidates
VERY restrictive. Prohibits the Labrador Party

PE
.35% of eligible voters (about 350 voters) and 10 candidates
When I was in the PEI NDP we struggled to maintain 350 members.


NS
250 members, with 25 members in at least 10 different ridings
Cape Breton "just happens to have 9 ridings

NB
10 candidates
Odd, but works for me.

QC
100 members
Very open

ON
1000 members, 2 candidates
Seems reasonable

MB
2500 members, 5 candidates
a bit restrictive

SK
2500 members, 100 people in 10 different ridings, 2 candidates
Restrictive

AB
.3% of voters as members (about 8k) candidates in 50%+1 of ridings (44)
Somewhat restrictive

BC
2 candidates
Laughably easy


more to come

[MaxQue]

QC
100 members
Very open

If I remember well, we were having an high candidate count requirement, like Canada had before, but it was stuck by courts.

Kewatinook has returned to an huge NDP lead, with two boxes to count.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Reimbursements
CANADA
Party: 50% of your money back if you get 2% of the vote, or, 5% in your ridings.
Candidate: Something confusing based on 10% of the vote

NEWFOUNDLAND
Candidate: 15% of the vote = 1/3rd of your money back

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Candidate: 15% of the vote. Between $1500 or $3000 back.

NOVA SCOTIA
Candidate: 10%. 25 cents per elector

NEW BRUNSWICK
Candidate: 15%. 35 cents per elector. Or, something based on mailing an ounce to everyone.

QUEBEC
Party: 1% of the vote, get half your money back, up to 60 cents per person.
Candidate: 15%, half your money back, up to a dollar (per elector)

ONTARIO
Party: 15% (per ridings) 5 cents
Candidate: 15%, 20% back

MANITOBA
Party: 10%, 50%
Candidate: 10%, 50%

SASKATCHEWAN
Party: 15%, 50%
Candidate: 15%, 60%



Allowances
Manitoba
$1.25 X number of votes, up to $25,000. Minimum of $10,000 to anyone with a seat, and, $600 for every party.

Quebec
50 cents per voter times your share of vote.

New Brunswick
If you ran 10 candidates, you get a share of money, equal to your vote. The total money is unlisted.

Nova Scotia
$1.50 for each vote (non-annual?)

Prince Edward Island
Anything up to $2 per voter. Currently set a $0





You can give to parties out-of-province except for Quebec, Manitoba, and Alberta, as well as Saskatchewan, but you have to be Canadian for the latter.

Donations from Corps and Unions are banned in Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and Quebec.

Some places have limits on donations.
NB = 6K, QC = 3K, ON = 7.5K, MB = 3K, AB = 15K,



Polls
Alberta and Federal polls must state all the deets, as well, no new polls in the last 24 hours. The latter has a similar equal in Ontario and BC.




Alberta and Saskatchewan have election laws for Senators.

[MaxQue]

Quebec donation laws were changed this year.
They must now send the check to the Election Director, not to the party, if the amount is more than 100$.

New donation limit is 1000$/year.

[Nichlemn]

Interesting McFayden stepped down so easily.  While not the ideal outcome for the PCs, it would hardly call it unmitigated disaster.  This seemed more the case of Selinger improving his popularity thus being re-elected, not like here in Ontario where McGuinty has flatlined in popularity and only gone up due to Hudak's drop in popularity.  I wonder if Hudak will do the same, although lets see what the actual results are before speculating.  It does though look like all five provinces this fall will stick with the same party.  I do wonder if this has less to do with moving right or left and more during difficult times, people prefer to stick with what they know rather than try something different.

Seems odd given the conventional wisdom is that incumbents do badly in tough times.

[Smid]

Still waiting one final three polls from Flin Flon to report back, so that ridings may change shades slightly... I'll update the map once the results for that poll is in.

As always, larger versions in the Gallery.

2011 Manitoba Provincial Election Results



2011 Manitoba Provincial Election - Vote received by the NDP
Initially I had the lowest shade representing >10%, however the Steinbach result meant that I had to adjust it. With the exception of Steinbach, all ridings in the palest shade are >10%.




2011 Manitoba Provincial Election - Vote received by the PC Party
With the exception of the palest shade, the scale matches the NDP map




2011 Manitoba Provincial Election - Vote received by the Liberal Party




2011 Manitoba Provincial Election - Vote received by the Greens

[bgwah]

Why is the NDP so much stronger at the provincial level? This especially seems to be the case in Winnipeg.

Also, any particular reason SW Winnipeg is the only part of the city to vote PC? Or is it just a generic "Wealthy neighborhood" kind of answer?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Provincial and Federal politics are very different. Provincially I support big government, federally, small government. I am not alone in having different views on different levels. One thing is foreign affairs, plays a bigger role in pretty much every non-USA country. (We need to figure out how we want to relate to YOU guys, while you guys don't) Another thing is that federal-provincial relations is always an issue, and lastly, because we have more than 2 parties, different things matter at different times. IE the current two largest federal parties =/= the two largest provincial parties. Quebec is an excellent example where the two largest provincial parties are the third and fourth parties Federally.

The sort answer is Federal Liberals vote NDP in Manitoba. Some even campaigned for them.

[Holmes]

Did we miss this Yukon poll? Not a match up, per se, but still insightful.

http://www.datapathsystems.net/

Go to press releases, and click on September 2011. More people satisfied with Yukon Party representatives than NDP representatives. But NDP has more trust on most issues. But Yukon Party has more trust on the economy and government management. So... who really knows?

[lilTommy]

Did we miss this Yukon poll? Not a match up, per se, but still insightful.

http://www.datapathsystems.net/

Go to press releases, and click on September 2011. More people satisfied with Yukon Party representatives than NDP representatives. But NDP has more trust on most issues. But Yukon Party has more trust on the economy and government management. So... who really knows?

To be fair there is only 1 NDP member (Hanson), and she has only been around for a year. But over on Rabble someone got a robo call from the Yukon Party ... saying vote YP to stop the NDP... that shows us they are scared and concerned about the NDP.
Last i saw the biggest issues this election are Housing and the environment (Peel watershed protection)... the economy is doing really well so its not a huge concern but its being used as a wedge, scare tactic against the NDP.
Northern politics is all local, it only takes dozens of votes to win or lose so the ground game, the local campaign is going to be key.

[minionofmidas]

I loving Radio-Canada website.

Apparently, the ridings have official French names.
"Dawson Trail" is "Chemin-Dawson"

You call that French? "Chemin-Deaufils" would be French.

[Hash]

The PCs raked up some HUGE rural Utah-like margins in southern Manitoba. Does anybody know if they had done similarly well in the same regions in 2007?

[Hatman 🍁]

The PCs raked up some HUGE rural Utah-like margins in southern Manitoba. Does anybody know if they had done similarly well in the same regions in 2007?

Yeah, but not quite that high. Lots of German Mennonites in districts like Steinbach and Morden-Winkler that love the Tories.

I blame Lewis.

Anyways, here's some maps of the NWT as they had their election on Monday as well: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/northwest-territories-2011-election.html

[adma]

How well would the NDP have done in places like Steinbach and Morden-Winkler back in the 1970s?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surprisingly/happily there are maps on Wikipedia so...



Not entirely clear though.

[Holmes]

The more things change, the more they stay the same.