Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

That sample was weaker for McCain than yesterday's... maybe even Friday too (I'm too lazy to do the math.)


John McCain is collapsing

This sample is something like McCain +4, I think.

[Torie]

The last day is McCain +3.6, given various assumptions.

The McCain tsunami may be receding. 

(4.2+7.2+X)/3=5
x=3.6

Someone should keep up my little formula. I am going to be gone for 10 days.

[J. J.]

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Slightly better than expected.

Do you pick up your paycheck from the local RNC campaign office, or do they mail it to you?

McCain's lead will probably evaporate as the week wears on, though he should have some residual bounce until the debates.

Considering I expected a four point lead, slightly better than expected.  You see the number 5 is a bit higher than the number 4.

"Boy, Obama is really walking away with this one."    (Ah, that is called sarcasm.)

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Slightly better than expected.

Really? Not as bad as I was expecting...

I called it a 4 point bounce on one of the polls.  It's slightly better.

[J. J.]

That sample was weaker for McCain than yesterday's... maybe even Friday too (I'm too lazy to do the math.)


John McCain is collapsing

The bounce is probably going, but this isn't a collapse by any stretch of the imagination.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Nothing too nuts...

I think independents are going to start leaking towards McCain.  The Palin pick has legs.  And as the smears start to subside and she continues showing she's competent, more independents will be drawn to her.  Having survived the first week, the Palin train has left the station.  She also needs to start making the late night talk show rounds.

And with Palin getting a lot of attention, it's going to be hard for Obama to win news cycles from now to election day. Being gaffe prone and flip-flopping doesn't help him either.

Obama needs the following things to win:
1) no new international crisis until election day (Russia, Iran, etc)
2) Obama has to at least tie McCain in the debates.  It's likely neither Obama or McCain will score a knockout punch during the debates.
3) Biden needs to win his debate.  If Palin comes anywhere close, expect more women to drift her way.  The Biden/Palin debate is probably the biggest risk to the Obama campaign.  A Palin win could very well end this campaign, especially if she does so without coming across as being too rabid (more of a barracuda and less of an attack dog).

[RJ]

McCain leads by 5 today and lead by 3 yesterday. Rasmussen is only reporting 2 as of today. Anyone think this is his peak?

I'll say no right now but it won't get a whole lot bigger(perhaps as much as 6 and it'll be dead even  before long.)  After listening to the media, I expected McCain to have an insurmountable lead.

[KeyKeeper]

So far Sen. McCain has gained 7% since Sen. Obama's peak, while Sen. Obama has drop 6% in the Gallup poll.

[Nym90]

Obviously very good news for McCain.

Worth noting that Carter got a big bounce out of the Dem convention in 1980 and had the lead immediately thereafter, as well.

Carter's "big bounce" was 1 point on Gallup, 39 to 38.  I checked the numbers a few days ago

Gallup's own website says a 10 point bounce.

[J. J.]

Obviously very good news for McCain.

Worth noting that Carter got a big bounce out of the Dem convention in 1980 and had the lead immediately thereafter, as well.

Carter's "big bounce" was 1 point on Gallup, 39 to 38.  I checked the numbers a few days ago

Gallup's own website says a 10 point bounce.

I checked the Gallup poll of mid August. quoted in Presidential Elections and American Politics third edition, 1984, p. 161.

You are looking at the GOP bounce disappearing, because after the RNC Reagan was up by 16 points (R 45, C 29).  After the DNC, Carter led, 39 to 38, or +1.

[Eraserhead]

lol. Only John F. Kerry managed to pull off the negative bounce.

Classic.

[Keystone Phil]

lol. Only John F. Kerry managed to pull off the negative bounce.

Classic.

I actually predicted that in 2004. Fritz, an old forum member who is starting to make a bit of a comeback, basically called me crazy for saying that. I'll never forget it.

[© tweed]

lol. Only John F. Kerry managed to pull off the negative bounce.

Classic.

he talked about Vietnam for an hour.  what can you expect?

[Ronnie]

Since McCain is almost getting a majority of the vote, I'm pretty satisfied.

[Eraserhead]

He shouldn't have let his wife speak under the influence.

[Nym90]

Obviously very good news for McCain.

Worth noting that Carter got a big bounce out of the Dem convention in 1980 and had the lead immediately thereafter, as well.

Carter's "big bounce" was 1 point on Gallup, 39 to 38.  I checked the numbers a few days ago

Gallup's own website says a 10 point bounce.

I checked the Gallup poll of mid August. quoted in Presidential Elections and American Politics third edition, 1984, p. 161.

You are looking at the GOP bounce disappearing, because after the RNC Reagan was up by 16 points (R 45, C 29).  After the DNC, Carter led, 39 to 38, or +1.

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

[J. J.]

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

[RJ]

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

I couldn't believe it when I read it that Carter got a 10 point bounce in 1980 after the DNC convention. I was very young when this election took place, but there's 1 thing I remember: Iran Hostage Crisis. That thing really did Carter in.

Among other things that I don't remember but read about is stagflation. A new word in the English language (at that point in time) had to be invented since economists believed high inflation and unemployment could not be attained in the same time period. Under Carter, it became reality. There was also Carter's energy conservation, which was a colossal failure. Carter also almost collapsed and lost in 76'. There was also the Kennedy factor when he trashed Carter in his concession speech in 1980.

[Nym90]

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

Not as unpopular as Bush, that's true. But low enough that it should've been obvious that Reagan was likely to win.

Gallup poll Carter approval ratings

[J. J.]

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

Not as unpopular as Bush, that's true. But low enough that it should've been obvious that Reagan was likely to win.

Gallup poll Carter approval ratings

Actually less popular than Bush is now, at least in terms of who'd the voter vote for.  After the RNC, it was Carter 29, Reagan 45.

[Verily]

Well, I'm assuming that's the 10 point Carter bounce Gallup is referring to. Going from 29 to 39.

You're right that it's far from the same situation as this year, just pointing out that incumbent party candidates can still get big convention bounces and lead in the polls even when their party is insanely unpopular.

The thing is, neither Carter nor the Democrats were insanely unpopular at that point.  It was just a post GOP convention bounce versus the DNC bounce.

Not as unpopular as Bush, that's true. But low enough that it should've been obvious that Reagan was likely to win.

Gallup poll Carter approval ratings

Actually less popular than Bush is now, at least in terms of who'd the voter vote for.  After the RNC, it was Carter 29, Reagan 45.

Have we seen a poll of Bush v Obama? No.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday, September 9

McCain - 49% (nc)
Obama - 44% (nc)

McCain led Obama by five percentage points in Monday's report on the strength of a six-point increase in the percentage of voters choosing him on the presidential trial heat following the Republican National Convention. McCain's 49% support in today's three-day rolling average, based on Sept. 6-8 interviewing, is unchanged from Monday's report and matches McCain's high mark in Gallup tracking to date.

Gallup polling in recent days has been quite stable, showing McCain ahead of Obama by similar margins in each of the last four individual days of nightly tracking. McCain also had a 4-point lead over Obama among registered voters in the separate USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted this past weekend.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, last night must have been McCain +4 or so, as well, similar to the sample that dropped off.  I think Sunday's sample was slightly more McCain favorable, so it might move down a point tomorrow, depending on what new result we get tomorrow.

[Torie]

(7.2+3.6+X)/3=5
x=4.2

[Sam Spade]

(7.2+3.6+X)/3=5
x=4.2

If Gallup says the margins have been similar the last four nights, then the 7.2 might not be as high, and the others might not be as low.  Just FYI - it's hard to get it exact.  Of course, maybe 7.2 to them is the same as 3.6. 

[Torie]

I just used the 538 numbers from back when, and rolled forward using my simple little equation, which any high school student in the top 10% or so could do.  . I thought Nat Silver was a genius!  What happened?