Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti was on La7 today. Nothing particular, but it's really obvious a man like him, with all his qualities, has nothing to do in electoral politics.

[Keystone Phil]

You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.

Isn't the left fairly stable at ~35% in Italy, but never wins?

Hardly ever wins? Yes.

However, the combined forces of the left are above 35% now. The main center-left party alone is at roughly 35% at this moment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most people who have won elections in Italy have looked that dull. Dull men sometimes poll well when there's a sense of crisis.

Why dishonesty?

Well he's aggressively denying what his political project actually is (an attempt to return to 'business as usual' as it was before Tangentopoli; the political model of a dominant mildly conservative centrist party with a strong whiff of incense acting, around which other coalition partners rotate, re-position and trade places), which is pretty much the definition of dishonesty.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.

Two out of how many since the end of World War II?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.

Two out of how many since the end of World War II?

That's not fair. First Republic elections didn't really have "winners" or "losers".

[LastVoter]

You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.

Isn't the left fairly stable at ~35% in Italy, but never wins?

Hardly ever wins? Yes.

However, the combined forces of the left are above 35% now. The main center-left party alone is at roughly 35% at this moment.

So I am guessing center-right or coalition established social democracy in Italy then?

[Keystone Phil]

Christian Democrats, of which there are right leaners and left leaners, ruled Italy with very brief interruption from 1946 - 1994. I said the center-left has only won two elections, not that they didn't have an impact.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Christian Democrats, of which there are right leaners and left leaners, ruled Italy with very brief interruption from 1946 - 1994. I said the center-left has only won two elections, not that they didn't have an impact.

No, with no interruptions at all. They had to give up the PM post a couple of times towards the end, but that's all.

[Keystone Phil]

Christian Democrats, of which there are right leaners and left leaners, ruled Italy with very brief interruption from 1946 - 1994. I said the center-left has only won two elections, not that they didn't have an impact.

No, with no interruptions at all. They had to give up the PM post a couple of times towards the end, but that's all.

Well, the PM post was what I was referring to the when I said "brief interruption" but point taken.

[Niemeyerite]

Not that you care about this, but anyways: I'm supporting Bersani and the PD (would be a SeL voter until today, but I think Bersani will make a good PM).

About Monti... poor guy, he's too smart and too boring to take part in a campaign. I hope we had someone like Monti in Spain, instead of Rajoy. But he's not a centrist. He's clearly a conservative, a sane conservative (not like Berlusconi or our PP politicians).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not that you care about this, but anyways: I'm supporting Bersani and the PD (would be a SeL voter until today, but I think Bersani will make a good PM).

A vote for SEL is a vote for Bersani for PM, though.

[Leftbehind]

What's SEL done today to lose your vote, are you saying you'd vote for them if the election was today?

[Niemeyerite]

I know a vote for SEL is a vote for Bersani, but I'm afraid he'll get less than 30%, and he needs a strong mandate in order not to call for elections in 2 or 3 years.
And it's also because if PD doesn't win big this time, it'll have effects here in Spain, too, with socialdemocracy being replaced by parties like IU in Spain, BE in Portugal... So, even if my favourite pol is Vendola, Bersani gets a B-, and I can vote for a B- Other thing that I hate is populism, and Bersani doesn't seem to be a populist (more in the Gordon Brown mold).

[Keystone Phil]

You really think deciding between SEL and PD would affect his mandate? Italians, correct me if I'm wrong but I assume it's the size of the left coalition's win that matters for a mandate, not just PD's showing. Bersani will have other issues to worry about given the times the country is living in and pointing to PD's showing isn't going to matter all that much. And whether SEL gets 5% or 10%, they're still going to be able to hold Bersani hostage if they want during the government.

[Niemeyerite]

You really think deciding between SEL and PD would affect his mandate? Italians, correct me if I'm wrong but I assume it's the size of the left coalition's win that matters for a mandate, not just PD's showing. Bersani will have other issues to worry about given the times the country is living in and pointing to PD's showing isn't going to matter all that much. And whether SEL gets 5% or 10%, they're still going to be able to hold Bersani hostage if they want during the government.

Yes, it'd affect his mandate (IMO) because SEL would have more power in his Government, so Bersani would be a "slave" of ecologism like Artur Mas in Catalonia has became the "slave" of leftist independentists. If PD has a good election night and SEL a not-so-good one, Bersani would have an easier time to govern, don't you think? He'd be able to execute his platform, with some concessions to SEL, but not becoming their slave

[Leftbehind]

Fair enough - the rise of IU and BE, and SEL holding significant influence are something I'd wish for, so I can see why we wouldn't be voting in the same manner.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think it's really a matter of SEL having a "good or not so good" showing. They'll either land on the low end (around 5%) or the high end (around 10%) and I don't think their placement on either end will really affect PD's mandate (if there is one, of course).

[Andrea]

It seems SEL has settled at around 5% right now in most poll, hasn't it?

After some protests after releasing their candidates lists, they made some changes in Tuscany and Veneto. The top man in the Senate's list in Tuscany moves to Veneto's top spot. Number 2 was already running also in Calabria and she will run just there. So number 2 and 3 (football manager Ulivieri) will become 1 and 2. They were the winners of primaries and were relegated to unwinnable positions. SEL have 1 safe seat in Tuscany at the Senate and a second if they perform well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi. LOL Maroni, so much for the "new Lega"... Now they deserve to get under 2%.

It seems SEL has settled at around 5% right now in most poll, hasn't it?

Between 5 and 6%, yes (sadly ).

[minionofmidas]

Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi.

So hoping they'd go alone. (Which might actually have been the right choice to maximize their own vote... but with the law being what it is...)

[Keystone Phil]

Damn

Well, I just saw a friend tweet that Lega is polling at 3.9% and they'd be "out of parliament." Speaking to Lewis' point, could it be that their agreement to run with PdL will cost them a spot, not reaching the coalition-required threshold?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi.

So hoping they'd go alone. (Which might actually have been the right choice to maximize their own vote... but with the law being what it is...)

That's disgusting indeed. This party has raised hypocrisy into a full-fledged art.

Anyway, the coalition threshold is 2%, and even though they should, I have a hard time seeing Lega fall below that level. And even if they did, there is that utterly ridiculous "first party below the threshold" clause... The only way they could get shut out of parliament would be for Lega to get less votes than La Destra, with La Destra getting less than 2%... Very unlikely. Hopefully we'll see a 2-3 point drop from their current 5-6% standing, however.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, that "first party below the threshold" clause is probably the most ridiculous requirement in any electoral system.

[Andrea]

It looks like PSI is negotiating some names to be put in Bersani's quota of candidates within PD lists. So I suppose they won't field their own list leaving Tabacci as the first (only) party below threshold in the CL.LOL!