Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

So how can Tom Corbett win re-election? With his putrid approval rating, he shows that electing him was a mistake in 2010.  He might pick up 7% from his approval rating to his share of the vote in November against an average opponent in an average environment for his Party... and he would probably lose 57-43.

In 1986, Bob Casey, Sr, barely got 50% of the vote.  Less than 18 months prior to his re-election, he lost a major campaign for local government tax reform; it required a constitutional amendment that lost by about 70-30. 

In 1990, Bob Casey, Sr. won the greatest majority of any governor since 1926 and the greatest re-election since governors could be re-elected.  He won by greater than 2 to 1.

[J. J.]

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.

Calm down, bro. Wipe off the keyboard and chill.

I have been watching this for a week, and lived through the Dwyer/Benedict and Preate scandals, plus a bunch more local ones.  I have never seen one develop this quickly.  It is banner headlines in the Inquirer and the people lining up against her are not Corbett people.

[J. J.]

Absolute dynamite from the Inquirer regarding Kane:   http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20140322_District_Attorney_Williams_blasts_attorney_general_in_sting_case.html

I have never seen a state/local scandal develop this quickly or this badly.

Calm down, bro. Wipe off the keyboard and chill.

I have been watching this for a week, and lived through the Dwyer/Benedict and Preate scandals, plus a bunch more local ones.  I have never seen one develop this quickly.  It is banner headlines in the Inquirer and the people lining up against her are not Corbett people.

Okay, so there is a "scandal"...whatevs... She ain't running for anything and she probably won't be if this stuff is for real

It reflects favorably on Corbett, as she basically ran against him in the election.  Kane just managed to do something Corbett never could; she's made Corbett look competent and nonpartisan in comparison.   

[J. J.]

First of all, this isn't a scandal in regards to Kane, unless there is some type of quid pro quo uncovered in exchange for her dropping the prosecution. It does hurt her by making people question her judgment, but that's the extent of it, barring further developments.

Secondly, I love how Corbett can supposedly win an election in 7 months with an approval rating in the 20s/30s, yet this story DOOOOOOMS Kane in a hypothetical election 31 months from now.

First, according to Williams, the case was sent to the feds prior to Kane taking office, and she demanded it be returned.

Second, I think it has an effect on the current election.  A lot of Corbett's negatives are from the Sandusky scandal.  Kane is investigating the investigation.. This has an effect on that.  It is coupled with some good news on that front.  Kane's investigation of Corbett's "foot dragging" will take almost as much time as the Sandusky investigation.  ESPN revealed some of the information regarding the investigation that supported Corbett.  And, in comparison, Corbett looks nonpartisan, which I thought was impossible.

[J. J.]

Kane's third press secretary in 14 months just resigned.  http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/5825793-74/kane-attorney-office#axzz2wifjInxz

[J. J.]

Tom Wolf just questioned Kane's actions:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/tom_wolf_criticizes_kathleen_k.html#incart_river_default

He has also disassociated himself from one of the "Philly Five" who had endorsed him.

It's worse.

[J. J.]

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.

If there is a resignation, the Governor appoints and the Senate confirms.  Every time this has happened, and it has happened three times before, the person appointed promises not to seek election in the next election.  They may in the future, as Corbett did.  He was appointed in 1995 and served until 1997.  He was elected in 2004.

Considering the makeup of the Senate, and who the Governor is (at least for the next 9 months), it will be a Republican.  Linda Kelly might be reappointed.

There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.

[J. J.]

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.

There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.

Impeachment on what grounds? At the moment, there are none.

I'm just letting you know of the possibility.

In theory, if what Williams claimed is accurate, it could constitute either obstruction or abuse of discretion, a form of abuse of power.  His claim was that the case was send to federal prosecutors, and then recalled by Kane, who deliberately dropped it.  Right now, the evidence isn't there, but we didn't even know about the possibility until Sunday.

Impeachment and conviction comes with disqualification to hold "any office of profit or trust" under the state jurisdiction.  I would expect that Kane would resign first.

[J. J.]

Honestly, if this scandal gets as bad as JJ says it is, I don't see her running.

Which really isn't a worry considering Patrick Murphy is still on the bench.

If this actually did get bad enough to the point where Kane would need to resign, a Republican will be the next Attorney General.

No need to worry though, since I highly doubt it will.

There is also the possibility of impeachment, just so you know.

Impeachment on what grounds? At the moment, there are none.

Daryl Metcalfe already tried to impeach her because he didn't like her dropping the defense of the gay marriage ban. If what Williams is saying is true, then he would actually have legitimate grounds to file charges.

I'm reading his commentary, and my jaw is dropping.  This isn't from some right-winger with a policy difference, or who things he's on a mission from God.  This is from an elected Democratic prosecutor, from the most liberal area of the state, who happens to be African American.  (He went to PSU, so he's not someone likely to be doing this to block her probe.)

Further, in PA, you can impeach for noncriminal charges.  The standard is "misbehavior in office."  What constitutes an impeachable offense is whatever the PA House says it is, by majority vote.

[J. J.]

Here is actual statement relating to this:

And there’s another problem with the theory: the case was not in her office when Ms. Kane became attorney general. Before she took office, the case had been taken over by federal prosecutors.

No one left her with a potentially embarrassing decision to make; all she had to do was let the investigation take its course in the hands of federal authorities. But she didn’t do that. Instead, she asked for the case back. And then, after going out of her way to reclaim the investigation – she shut it down

For whatever reasons, Ms. Kane has been largely silent about this important fact. She has repeatedly claimed that it was federal prosecutors who ended the investigation, and that they did so because they concluded that it was without merit. I believe that to be untrue. :



http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/03/by_dropping_corruption_probe_a.html#incart_river

If this is true, Kane may be out of office.

[J. J.]

And Tom Wolf comes out against Kane's handling of the case.

Beat you by 6 hours. 

I knew it would become an issue.

[J. J.]

Rendell has weighed in on Kane's side, but only to the extent that the plea deal was bad.

http://blog.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2014/03/backing_kane_ex-gov_rendell_sa.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

Will Kane resign??

I think there will need to be a threat of removal.

IF Williams is correct, and there is evidence, my guess is yes.  His statement has some weight because is the DA, and he is a Democrat.  It is not likely that he has a political agenda.

[J. J.]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

[J. J.]

Wagner drops out:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/wagner_bows_out_democratic_gov.html#incart_river_default

Ha. Wow. That was sad.

Conservadems get support only when the primary voters think they need one to win. With Corbett looking so weak and several more liberal and equally strong alternatives, Wagner never had a chance.

You mean like 2010?

Wagner lost the primary then to Onorato, Dan Onorato, who was, in turn, trounced by Corbett.

If you want to add A) 2014 will be as bad a year as 2010 and B) Corbett was just as weak as he was then as he was now to your list of denials and delusions then yeah that's what I mean.

I have not said anything about Corbett's weakness, only the weakness of your statements.

Wagner was probably the strongest candidate in the General.  It does mean that Corbett won't lose, but the likelihood that he will just went down.  A lot of Corbett's political problems are going away, ironically with no effort from Corbett.

[J. J.]

I've seen no indication that Corbett is recovering or his problems are "going away" He was trailing even Hanger in the last poll I've seen with his approval rating in the mid 30s. The time for recovery has passed Kasich, Walker and other GOP Govs have had their low points and have bounced back gradually while Corbett's #'s have gotten only worse. I'm not seeing anything from now to November that will cause him to jump an approval rating in the 30s to where he needs to be to win re-election.

Wagner, this time out, was possibly Corbett's strongest opponent in the fall.  He's a conservative, who won't scare off conservatives.  He'd from Western PA, so he could be competitive in Corbett's base.

The Phila 5 scandal has damaged Kane, which damages her probe.  The PSU stuff that has come out has been favorable to Corbett.

I don't know about Wolf, but Schwartz and McCord both favor fracking, Corbett's signature issue.  They want to keep it and tax it.  It does strengthen the idea that he made the right decision.

Corbett was off his lows, though admittedly, that was easy.

None of these things have anything to do with Corbett's merits.  If he were in a coma, the results would be the same.

[J. J.]

Calling for a special prosecutor in the Philly 5 case:  http://blog.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2014/03/york_cos_grove_wants_independe.html#incart_river_default

[J. J.]

I don't know about Wolf, but Schwartz and McCord both favor fracking, Corbett's signature issue.  They want to keep it and tax it.  It does strengthen the idea that he made the right decision.

So does Wolf, as long as it's regulated.

Good to know.

I'm not a Corbett fan, and actually kind of like Wolf.  His ads are very similar to Ridge in 1994.

McCord is rapidly turning me off, but it is somewhat due to his presentation.

My main reason why I could vote for Corbett is to spite the "Joebots."  There are more important issues.

[J. J.]

Wagner, this time out, was possibly Corbett's strongest opponent in the fall.  He's a conservative, who won't scare off conservatives.  He'd from Western PA, so he could be competitive in Corbett's base.

Ideology is not the only factor in candidate quality. Wagner is uninspiring, dull, a crap fundraiser, and would potentially depress the Democratic base. All this to attract conservatives, almost all of which will vote for Corbett in the end anyway? Not worth it.

There is a lot of discontent with the firing of Paterno, even among conservatives, and perhaps especially so.  Wagner could have tapped into that without effort.

A more liberal candidate won't.

[J. J.]

Jay Paterno has decided not to run for Lite Governor.......good.

http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/5850922-74/state-paterno-primary#axzz2wuJFAiH5

Just about to post:  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/03/jay_paterno_bows_out_of_race_f.html#incart_river_default

My guess is that his petitions were bad.

[J. J.]

And Kane is now officially a joke:  http://www.pennlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/03/justice_kathleen_kane-style_a.html

[J. J.]

F & M Poll:  Wolf at 33%, trailed by Schwartz at 7%.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_holds_his_gubernatorial_p.html#incart_river_default

I believe that is down by 3 points, but it is still a huge lead.

[J. J.]

F & M Poll:  Wolf at 33%, trailed by Schwartz at 7%.  http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/04/wolf_holds_his_gubernatorial_p.html#incart_river_default

I believe that is down by 3 points, but it is still a huge lead.

That 3 points is easily MoE averaged between two polls. The point is his nearest competitor is 26 points behind and in single digits. Plus he should have plenty of money to match or outdo his opponents' ad campaigns when they finally hit the airwaves.

For one of the pack to over take Wolf at this point is probably going to take a scandal, megagaffe(s), or a negative campaign of unsurpassed effectiveness.

I think that qualifies as a "huge lead." 

At least in Phila, McCord has been on the air.  It has barely made a dent in his and Wolf's numbers.  That is a very good sign for Wolf.

[J. J.]

Schwartz is the only candidate not on air it's not like she's broke either. I mean McGinty is even on air and she's not exactly flowing in cash. What is Team Schwartz doing/planning their completely MIA and sitting on a ton of cash this has to be one of the worst run campaigns I've seen in a while. Going from frontrunner to single digits is a disaster for any candidate.

McGinty is not on with any major buys.  She is not on in Phila.

Paterno is officially off the ballot.