Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except that much of all of that has actually been caused by mucking around with electoral systems to create majorities...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Except that much of all of that has actually been caused by mucking around with electoral systems to create majorities...

Well, the 2005 reform wasn't actually aimed at creating majorities (though that was the ostensible purpose). It was passed at a time when the right was almost assured of losing the election, so it's pretty likely that their goal was to make governing more difficult for Prodi (and boy, did they succeed...). It was easy to see why regional majority bonuses could easily lead to a catastrophe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Details, schmetails. My point is that constantly dicking around with the electoral system for blatant political ends has certainly contributed its share to the current fiasco...

[RogueBeaver]

I'd prefer the German, French, Aussie models, ideally FPTP. But the small parties won't sign their death warrant.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Details, schmetails. My point is that constantly dicking around with the electoral system for blatant political ends has certainly contributed its share to the current fiasco...

Define "constant". There have been only two electoral reforms so far in Italy, and only the second one can be ascribed to "blatant political ends". In fact, the 1993 law was the exact opposite of that: it has effectively been imposed by the voters to a largely apathetic political establishment, following a referendum where 80% of Italians made it clear that they wanted to get rid of PR.

I obviously agree with your general point, playing around with electoral reform for political gain is a bad thing. But I just don't think this point is so important in the context of the current debate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd prefer the German, French, Aussie models, ideally FPTP. But the small parties won't sign their death warrant.

Ironically, small parties might prefer FPTP to a French-like two-round system. With FPTP, the large parties will probably try to get out of their way to minimize wasted votes and maximize their potential gains. So what would probably happen is that they would form agreements with their smaller allies, forming electoral agreements that leave a few safe seats to each so that only one candidate of the coalition runs in each. As a result, small party candidates would still win with the support of bigger ones. With two rounds of voting, the large parties have no need to do that: they can simply wait for the runoff to pick up their allies' votes. No need to give out any seats.

[Zanas]

They tried that in Israel. It did not work.

Eh; in Israel, winning the PM election didn't give you a 'majority bonus'; it just meant you became PM.  I don't think a system where whoever comes in first place is actually guaranteed a legislative majority has been tried.

It has : it's called nowadays' France.

[Senator Cris]

Piemonte's TAR has annulled the Regional elections of 2010 for "irregularity in the collection of signatures".
The elections will probably held in conjunction with the EP Elections.
The center-left's candidate will be Sergio Chiamparino, former Mayor of Turin.
For the center-right the potential candidates are incumbent President Roberto Cota (Lega Nord), Assessor Claudia Porchietto (New Centre Right) and Gilberto Pichetto, regional councilor and regional coordinator of Forza Italia.

My prediction: Centre-left Likely

[Antonio the Sixth]

PD +1

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Tony, out of curiosity, which (non-fringe) party do you think I'd fit in best?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tony, out of curiosity, which (non-fringe) party do you think I'd fit in best?

If you don't think that any alliance with PD is an unforgivable betrayal of left-wing ideals, then SEL should be fine for you.

[RogueBeaver]

Berlusconi wants to lead his coalition's EP list and the election to be held simultaneously w/EP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Berlusconi wants to lead his coalition's EP list

So he's already forgot that he's ineligible?

[RogueBeaver]

Berlusconi wants to lead his coalition's EP list

So he's already forgot that he's ineligible?

Guess so. Tax fraud is tax fraud at both levels.

[Senator Cris]

Today, at 18:00 PM (Italy Time), Berlusconi meet Renzi at PD's HQ of Rome.
The government is hanging by a wire.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What will Berlusconi be meeting Renzi about and why is the government hanging by a wire? I thought the Berlusconi loyalists had gone into opposition months ago anyway.

[Senator Cris]

Berlusconi be meeting Renzi for the electoral law, but President Letta prefer that Renzi be meeting with the parties of majority (NCD, SC, UDC). Also, for the left of PD, this meeting remit Berlusconi at stake.
Berlusconi is for the Spanish system (that favorite the largest parties). Alfano is for the "Mayor of Italy" (double shift between the 2 coalitions most voted in the first round)

[Iannis]

I really do not understand why Italians want a deliberately disproportional electoral system, designed to manufacture an unjustified Parliamentary majority. It almost guarantees that parties supported by the majority of the electorate will be in opposition and the government would have more power than any truly proportional system would give it. I question if such a system can even be defined as democratic.

It is true that majoritarian systems can also produce disproportionate results. However that is not an automatic result of the systems themselves, just a consequence of a particular vote distribution.

You absolutely right.
Italy has a scond class democracy in which there is the obsession for the "strong man", the maturity of politicoal elite is so low that they don't want and can't find an agreement between parties, a coalition after the vote, like in any other european country .

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi and Berlusconi have agreed on a common plank. Sounds like a good one to me, but have they stripped the Senate of its confidence power yet? Or at least have some sort of override mechanism in there like Australia and the UK?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What I've been seeing is that it's not clear that the Senate will even be elected any more, so I imagine it is indeed being proposed that it be made something more like a normal revising chamber.

I still don't understand why Berlusconi is involved in this, or still being taken seriously in general.

[Diouf]

http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2014/01/29/-Electoral-law-deal-close-_9981912.html

So after the Constitutional Court stroke down the previous electoral law because of the winner's bonus and because of the closed lists, they have agreed on a new electoral law with a winner's bonus and with closed lists. Makes sense

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That sounds like a horrible, convoluted mess all around.

[Hash]

Could anyone explain how the top 2 runoff would work? What would happen to coalitions/parties which did not place in the top 2 but won over the threshold for seats? Would some seats be attributed to them in the first round, kind of how the party list elections work in regional/mayoral elections?

[Sol]

Check out this article from Hashemite's lovely blog:

http://welections.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/italy-politics-2013/

[RogueBeaver]

Reports that Renzi may replace Letta as PM. Napolitano's met with both, but Letta has to present a coalition pact and the PD has to approve a switch Thursday.