2017 Nova Scotia election (May 30)

[DC Al Fine]

Race is tightning

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

[DC Al Fine]

Halifax was amalgamated in the 1990's but the old municipal boundaries make sense for my purposes.

Former City of Halifax

Clayton Park West
This upper middle class riding has the highest concentration of immigrants in the province. It is represented by Liberal deputy leader Diana Whalen who won the riding by a substantial margin in the last election. Whalen unexpectedly announced she wasn't running again due to health reasons. This is the sort of well off riding the Liberals do well in, but it has no tribal Liberal vote, so I' can't bring myself to call it safe. This race is also notable because both the Green and Atlantic Party leaders are running here.
Lean Liberal

Fairview-Clayton Park
Fairview is a working class community, while Clayton Park is more well off. This riding should lean NDP, but the Liberals won it quite comfortably last time. Incumbent MLA Patricia Arab is quite popular. Additionally, the NDP organization seems almost non-existent this time around, which is a huge difference from 2013. If the Liberals collapse or the NDP
Lean Liberal

Halifax Armdale
This riding is an almost perfectly even split of middle class comfort and lower class poverty. Liberal Lena Diab won last time and has been prominent as Justice Minister. The NDP haven't generated much momentum yet, I think Diab will win it again.
Lean Liberal

Halifax Chebucto
This leftish seat was represented by former NDP leader Alexa McDonough and prominent Dipper Howard Epstein before the Liberals picked it up in 2013. NDP leader Gary Burrill is running here and should have an affect on the race. Liberal MLA Joahchim Stroink has also been embroiled in scandal for attending a party with someone wearing blackface (it was a Dutch Christmas party). Reading campaign logs, it seems Burrill is spending too much time here for it to be safe for him, but given its NDP history and his prominence, I still think he picks it up.
Lean NDP

Halifax Citadel-Sable Island
This riding is extremely diverse. It contains Halifax's two largest universities, a large old money neighbourhood, the downtown as well as the iconic Halifax Citadel. It also contains Sable Island off the coast of Nova Scotia which is home to 5 people and several hundred ponies It has elected members of all 3 major parties in the last 20 years and will be hotly contested in the next election. Although the Liberals are in trouble in progressive parts of Halifax, this riding has a large anti-NDP bloc which shoudl help the incumbent Liberal MLA, Labi Kousoulis pull through.
Lean Liberal

Halifax Needham
Consists entirely of the North End neighbourhood (no one calls it Needham*). A mixture of working class homes and urban progressives in search of cheap rents, Needham is the platonic ideal of an NDP riding. NDP cabinent minister Maureen MacDonald almost lost the seat in 2013, but it was later comfortably retained in a 2015 by-election. Given how the Liberals have annoyed the Nova Scotia left, it should be quite safe this time, even though the new MLA isn't nearly as prominent as Maureen MacDonald.
Safe NDP

*Halifax riding names don't make a lot of sense. No one says they live in Chebucto or Needham

[lilTommy]

Race is tightning

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

Already changed too!

Liberal: 37% (-3)
Tory: 32% (-)
NDP: 27% (+2)

[Hatman 🍁]

These are great, DC. Keep it up!

Of course, riding names are one of those nerdy things that interest me. The riding has been called "Halifax Needham" (Chebucto too) since the 60s, so I guess they'll never bother to change it.

Halifax Citadel-Sable Island is ridiculously named, since there isn't even a polling booth on Sable Island (and in fact the 2016 census shows a population of 0, going to update this on Wikipedia). Reminds me of the new name of the Leeds-Grenville riding which was named "Leeds-Grenville-Rideau Lakes and the Thousand Islands" for tourist reasons. *throws up*

[DL]

Race is tightning

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

Already changed too!

Liberal: 37% (-3)
Tory: 32% (-)
NDP: 27% (+2)

Two questions:

When is the leaders debate?
At what point does the popular vote spread start to make a minority government a serious possibility?

[DL]

Halifax Armdale
This riding is an almost perfectly even split of middle class comfort and lower class poverty. Liberal Lena Diab won last time and has been prominent as Justice Minister. The NDP haven't generated much momentum yet, I think Diab will win it again.
Lean Liberal

Don't be too sure about that. The NDP is running David Wheeler the former Dean of Management at Dalhousie who is widely regarded as a "star candidate"...also if polls now have the NDP at 27% province-wide, i suspect that 27% is much more concentrated in halifax than in the 2013 election and if that is the case this seat would have to be considered relatively "low hanging fruit" for a resurgent NDP

[lilTommy]

Halifax Armdale
This riding is an almost perfectly even split of middle class comfort and lower class poverty. Liberal Lena Diab won last time and has been prominent as Justice Minister. The NDP haven't generated much momentum yet, I think Diab will win it again.
Lean Liberal

Don't be too sure about that. The NDP is running David Wheeler the former Dean of Management at Dalhousie who is widely regarded as a "star candidate"...also if polls now have the NDP at 27% province-wide, i suspect that 27% is much more concentrated in halifax than in the 2013 election and if that is the case this seat would have to be considered relatively "low hanging fruit" for a resurgent NDP

If we look at the last Mainstreet:

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

That was with the NDP at 25% province wide, Is it more likely that the NDP is gaining ground in HRM or elsewhere? at 27% The margin with the Liberals would be smaller (if not tied) in HRm and/or they are above 20% in the rest of the province.

[DC Al Fine]

These are great, DC. Keep it up!

Of course, riding names are one of those nerdy things that interest me. The riding has been called "Halifax Needham" (Chebucto too) since the 60s, so I guess they'll never bother to change it.

Sadly you are right. If they were going to go with what people actually called the neighbourhoods in each riding, they would be Halifax North End, Halifax West End and Halifax South End. I get why Halifax West or South wouldn't work since they city and the county shared the same name before amalgamation, but everyone knows what 'North End' means around here. Boundary commissions are annoying sometimes.

Halifax Citadel-Sable Island is ridiculously named, since there isn't even a polling booth on Sable Island (and in fact the 2016 census shows a population of 0, going to update this on Wikipedia).

0 people live on Sable Island now? That's too bad. There's a neat little tradition that the first results released are the poll on Sable Island. Every provincial election Halifax Citadel would show the NDP up 2-1 or something for about ten minutes before the rest of the results came in.

Reminds me of the new name of the Leeds-Grenville riding which was named "Leeds-Grenville-Rideau Lakes and the Thousand Islands" for tourist reasons. *throws up*

Our boundary commission got into that crap too. Truro-Bible Hill is now Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River. The last two communities might have a thousand people between them.

[DC Al Fine]

Race is tightning

Liberal: 40%
Tory: 32%
NDP: 25%

Already changed too!

Liberal: 37% (-3)
Tory: 32% (-)
NDP: 27% (+2)

Two questions:

When is the leaders debate?
At what point does the popular vote spread start to make a minority government a serious possibility?

The leaders debate will be May 18

You're second question is a bit tougher to answer because Nova Scotia politics are so personality based. Rodney MacDonald famously increased his vote %, maintained his lead and lost seats, thanks to his rural MLA's racking up massive majorities while other candidates lost. That said, if I eyeball the 2013 results, the Liberals seem to have the most concentrated electorate. I really doubt the Liberals will win a majority with less than 40% of the vote.

Halifax Armdale
This riding is an almost perfectly even split of middle class comfort and lower class poverty. Liberal Lena Diab won last time and has been prominent as Justice Minister. The NDP haven't generated much momentum yet, I think Diab will win it again.
Lean Liberal

Don't be too sure about that. The NDP is running David Wheeler the former Dean of Management at Dalhousie who is widely regarded as a "star candidate"...also if polls now have the NDP at 27% province-wide, i suspect that 27% is much more concentrated in halifax than in the 2013 election and if that is the case this seat would have to be considered relatively "low hanging fruit" for a resurgent NDP

If we look at the last Mainstreet:

HRM
Liberal - 39%
NDP - 31%
PC - 29%

That was with the NDP at 25% province wide, Is it more likely that the NDP is gaining ground in HRM or elsewhere? at 27% The margin with the Liberals would be smaller (if not tied) in HRm and/or they are above 20% in the rest of the province.

Lil Tommy: Definitely Halifax. The NDP don't have many rural incumbents this time, so they ought to tank in most of rural Nova Scotia except for a couple seats they have a history in (e.g. Pictou County). Plus the sort of stuff the Liberals are taking heat on are things that upset urban/suburban progressives.

DL:Yes and no. I dispute that Wheeler is a star candidate. He left Dal in 2009, and was most recently president of Cape Breton University, and left under some contentious circumstances. Besides the NDP vote in Armdale is more broke than woke. I have a pretty high standard for a 'star' and Wheeler has enough marks against him to be one.

That said he's still an above average candidate, and given the regional trends at play, I think it's fair to call it a tossup.

[DC Al Fine]

On another note, the nomination deadline has passed. The Atlantica Party has surpassed expectations and nominated 15 candidates. The Greens are running 32 candidates, an improvement from 2013, but still nowhere near the full slates they used to run. The big three all have full slates. Since we all love maps, here is a map of fringe candidacies:

Green is Green only
Blue is Atlantica only
Purple is both Green and Atlantica
Grey is no fringe parties



Things to note in no particular order:
1) Greens are 'real party' in Halifax and the Annapolis Valley, but need to up their game elsewhere
2) Cape Breton is starved for fringe folks.
3) Cumberland County must have some little group of free market acolytes I don't know about.

[DL]

Race is tightning

Liberal: 38%
Tory: 31%
NDP: 28%

Boy the NDP sure has been on a steady upwards trajectory...at 28% they are getting to that tipping point where a lot of seats would fall their way

[Hatman 🍁]

Starting to look like the 1998 election now in terms of polling, except with the Liberals doing better and the NDP doing worse. But I suspect the vote patterns will be similar, if everything holds.

[DC Al Fine]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They're definitely picking up seats in Halifax on those numbers, but they're hampered by a lack of strength outside of it. I'd guess they're hovering around breakthrough level

They should win Halifax Chebucto, Sackville-Beaverbank, both of the Cole Harbour seats and be competitive in several other Halifax area seats on those numbers. On the other hand, might lose Queens-Shelburne, and/or Chester-St. Margaret's to the resurgent Tories, and I wouldn't put the two Cape Breton seats they lost in by-elections I'm the NDP column yet.

Starting to look like the 1998 election now in terms of polling, except with the Liberals doing better and the NDP doing worse. But I suspect the vote patterns will be similar, if everything holds.

Agreed. The Liberals have run a very complacent campaign, while the Tories and NDP have hit the ground running. They aren't competing with the other parties on spending and they aren't playing the fiscal responsibility card either. It's all rather muddled.

I agree with your assessment with a few minor quibbles. (I.e. there's no way the Liberals will match their 1998 result in Cape Breton, but they'll probably do a bit better in the rural mainland.)

[DL]

I could see the NDP losing Queens-Shelbourne since there is no incumbent running there and its not "natural territory", but in Chester St. Margarets you have an NDP incumbent who survived the massacre of 2013 so i suspect she may be better placed to be re-elected...ditto with Truro-Bible Hill

[warandwar]

Love this man: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zmEJLwoSGM

[DC Al Fine]

Daily poll is out:

Liberal: 41% (+3)
Tory: 29% (-2)
NDP: 27% (1)

Just a reminder, CRA is doing a rolling three day poll, so an unusually good or bad result for a party can take a little while to work through the system.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories release their er... optimistic platform i.e. large spending, balanced budget, no new taxes.

NDP promises free community college tuition and a ten percent reduction in university tuition (also costed optimistically)

[DC Al Fine]

Suburban Halifax
The outlying areas of Halifax are diverse, with a mix of working class areas, well to do suburbs and more conservative rural areas*

Bedford
This suburban riding is one of the wealthiest in the province, consisting almost entirely of upper middle class professionals, wealthier immigrant. It has grown rapidly in the past 20 years or so and has lost a some of it's NDP areas in the last redistribution. Bedford was historically Tory, but swung Liberal in '09 in the wake of the PC debacle and the local Tory MLA's spending scandal. The riding is represented by Labour Minister,Kelly Regan, wife of Halifax West MP Geoff Regan. This is the sort of seat the Tories could win in Halifax if they form government, but the Regan family is quite popular in Bedford. The only way the Liberals are losing this is if the wheels fall off their campaign
Safe Liberal

Halifax Atlantic
Like Halifax Citadel, Halifax Atlantic is a riding of extremes. It contains wealthy oceanfront homes, poor suburban public housing projects and small fishing villages further away from the city. Tory Premier John Buchanan represented this riding in the 70's and 80's. The NDP riding won in a massive landslide in 2009 before losing it in an upset to the Liberals. Of note the Tories are running the former Liberal MLA for Timberlea-Prospect, Bruce Holland. Holland lost a city council campaign by a decent margin in last year's municipal election, so I doubt he'll make a big impact. With the Liberals down in the polls, this mostly poor riding is in play for the NDP.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Hammonds Plains-Lucasville
This riding is mostly Halifax exurb. The Hammonds Plains area is a exurban bedroom community consisting of middle class homes on large rural properties. Lucasville is a black loyalist village. The Liberals won this riding comfortably in 2013, but the Tories are running a star candidate, two term city councilman Matt Whitman. Whitman is popular, but he has a lot of ground to make up. Although the NDP won this riding's predecessor, they would have a much harder time winning it now, as some hardcore NDP areas were redistributed out of the riding.
Lean Liberal

Sackville-Beaverbank
This riding is mostly working class (Sackville) suburb with some wealthier rural areas (Beaverbank) mixed in and was part of the old Hammonds Plains-Upper Sackville riding. The Liberals barely won this riding last time and I expect them to lose it despite having and incumbent now.
Lean NDP

Sackville-Cobequid
Consists almost entirely of the working class suburb of Sackville, this riding has been represented by the NDP since 1993; before their break through in Nova Scotia. It has been represented by former Health minister and NDP leadership contender Dave Wilson since 2003. Wilson nearly lost his seat in an upset in 2013, but he should have no trouble retaining it this time.
Safe NDP

Timberlea-Prospect
This riding consists of two communities; Timberlea, a working class suburb, and Prospect, a poor rural area with a few large oceanfront properties. This riding is hard to project because for most of its history it was represented by ridiculously popular NDP MLA Bill Estabrooks. There was an expense scandal in Nova Scotia a few years ago, and Estabrooks made the news for claiming only $300 in expenses, mostly for office furniture he bought on Craigslist and Kijiji . Without Estabrooks, the NDP finished a distant second place last time. The Liberals should win it, but the lack of non-Estabrooks history makes me uncomfortable calling this seat 'safe'
Lean Liberal

Waverley-Fall River-Beaverbank
This rapidly growing area is mostly rural exurbs. It attracts a range of classes including poorer folks in search of cheap land, middle class airport workers (the airport is just outside the riding, and upper middle class professionals in search of large properties. All three parties have held the seat in the past decade or so. The Liberals picked it up in 2013 after the NDP MLA assaulted the Liberal MLA for Dartmouth-Preston. With this riding's relative ruralness and wealth the Tories could pick it up if the Liberals falter any more.
Liberal-Tory tossup

*I mean more conservative than most of Halifax, not conservative itself.

[Zanas]

DC, are you undecided because the Tories are too much to the left this time around ? I believe I remember you to be some kind of small c conservative, so maybe you're just short of a conservative option ?

Anyway, without knowing much on this election (though I think I had followed the previous one here already), I expect a Liberal majority, since it seems to be the way things are going in Canada these days.

[Hatman 🍁]

the race is stabilizing. Last two CRA polls show:

(Change from last election)
Lib: 42 (-4)
PC: 30 (+4)
NDP: 25 (-2)

[DC Al Fine]

DC, are you undecided because the Tories are too much to the left this time around ? I believe I remember you to be some kind of small c conservative, so maybe you're just short of a conservative option ?

Anyway, without knowing much on this election (though I think I had followed the previous one here already), I expect a Liberal majority, since it seems to be the way things are going in Canada these days.

Sort of. Nova Scotia is red Tory land, but there are two kinds of red Tories; fiscally moderate traditionalists*, and the classic 'Im fiscally conservative but socially liberal' types. I am in the former camp, Jamie Baillie has pushed the local Tories firmly into the latter, plus he's running to the fiscal left of what I think is a prudent Liberal government.

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think I will vote Liberal. McNeil isn't pushing social liberalism like federal Liberals are, and I'm happy with his fiscal policies. There are several Tory candidates I know and like, but they aren't running in Bedford.

I agree with your prediction. I'm guessing a reduced Liberal majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Former City of Dartmouth
Halifax has a twin city thing going on like Minneapolis-St. Paul. Dartmouth is mostly suburb but it has its own downtown and major employers. It is a crucial battleground in 2017 with many marginal Liberal seats. The Liberal majority, and NDP resurgence could both be made or broken here.

Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage
This riding has a small portion of Cole Harbour (blue collar suburb), but it's mostly focused on Easter Passage, a village just outside of Halifax. Eastern Passage is very blue collar and many poorer workers move there for the cheap housing. The main employer is a heavily unionized oil refinery. Unsurprisingly the NDP do very well here. The Liberals barely one the seat in 2013, and I expect the NDP to pick it up even though the polls haven't moved much.
Lean NDP

Cole Harbour-Portland Valley
The home of hockey great Sidney Crosby, Premier Darrell Dexter represented this seat. It is blue collar suburbia, but the upper middle class Portland Valley area was moved onto this riding during the redistribution, causing him to lose the seat. Between the anti-NDP Portland Valley and the lack of a leader in the seat, this seat is more friendly to the Liberals than the 2013 result would indicate.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Dartmouth East
Dartmouth is known as a city of lakes, and most of the lakes are in Dartmouth East. Darmouth East is largely well to do homeowners, although there is a poor neighbourhood at the southern end of the riding. Andrew Younger, a Liberal won a massive win here, but was kicked out of caucus due to a sex scandal. This riding was set to be one of the more interesting races, with Younger running a serious independent candidacy (he was also city councilor for the area), but he has pulled his name from the ballot. Now it's much more boring race. Expect the Liberals to win this well off riding.
Lean Liberal

Dartmouth North
One of the most impoverished neighbourhoods in the city, Dartmouth North almost all of Dartmouth's public housing as well as the closest thing Halifax has to a red light district. It also contains a small white collar neighbourhood. The Liberals picked up the seat comfortably due to the NDP MLA trevo Zinck being embroiled in an expense scandal. The Liberal MLA Joanne Bernard is the Community Services (read welfare and whatnot) Minister and is on the left of the party, making her a good fit for the riding. This one could go either way.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Dartmouth South
This riding is a mix of downtown Dartmouth, working class and middle class suburbia. The Liberals won it in 2013, before losing it in a byelection after the MLA died of an aneurysm. The NDP MLA, Marian Mancini (wife of former Sydney-Victoria MP Peter Mancini), is not running again due to the strain the job put on her family, so the NDP have no incumbency bonus.
Liberal-NDP tossup

Eastern Shore
Eastern Shore is the best bellwether in the province, last voting against the government in 1967. It is a mix of rural fishing villages, and Halifax exurb. Watch this one on election night ot see where the province is going. I expect it to retain its bellwether status
Lean Liberal

Preston-Dartmouth
Preston-Dartmouth, used to be a minority seat, specially undersized to encourage minority representation (there were also 3 Acadian ridings). When the NDP government eliminated the law behind these seats, the riding was expanded. It consists of Preston, a black loyalist village, and some exurban areas outside Dartmouth.  Outside of Preston, the voters are relatively swingy in federal elections but a popular Liberal MLA (and former councillor) Keith Colwell has kept a firm grip on the seat.
Safe Liberal

[Boston Bread]

You can clear Dartmouth East off the NDP target list.

http://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/n-s-ndp-candidate-resigns-over-sexist-material-posted-online-1.3414816

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[the506]

What's in the water in Dartmouth? Now it's the Tory in Dartmouth South.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/election-vote-progressive-conservatives-dartmouth-south-1.4118034

[DC Al Fine]

Today's CRA poll:

Liberal: 42%
Tory: 28%
NDP: 26%

On mobile so no link or pretty colours.

I love the Halifax Chronicle Herald's headlines for these polls. There's been no movement outside the margin of error for the past week or so and every day they talk about 'surging' and 'free fall'.