Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[Boston Bread]

Another impression I got was that Chow was unfairly treated by the media and by both her supporters (who thought she was too moderate/not inspiring) and her opponents (who saw her as an extremist). Really these claims can be lobbed at any politician but it seems Chow was held up to a higher standard than her opponents even as she polled third. It's unfortunate but race, and gender to smaller extent, may have played a role. Like that cartoon where she held Jack Layton's empty suit. Not even Canada is out of the loop on that issue yet.

[EPG]

Only a matter of time before they start doing so on the federal and provincial levels.

Assuming immigrants start voting like whites, these voters are still more urban than whites at large. Wouldn't the issues that make urban whites vote left still make them lean left too? Social issues aren't a permanent cure for CPC since their relevance fades over time. Even then identity politics still favour Liberals more than other parties among immigrants.

Racial minorities in this theory would simply be more contestable to conservative parties, as happened to ethnic white voters, and as is still happening in notable Canadian ethnic communities.

If Chow's results are seen in light of historic support for the federal New Democratic Party in Toronto, which seems like the relevant comparison given her career, she did pretty much as you would expect.

[lilTommy]

Just saw this on my FB feed... looks like polls?

Chow - won the York University Student ghetto big, also the TO Islands... and this long mixed sliver of support unsurprisingly reminiscent of the ONDP polls won in the summer, mostly a Tory/Chow mix.
 
Ford - Owned North Etobicoke, Western  North York and York; surprisingly competitive with Tory in Scarborough, Yes he won most of the polls north of the Lakeshore but not by huge margins.

Tory - No surprise, Rosedale, Leaside, Forrest Hill North through that wealthy central belt, as well as the wealthier older areas of Etobicoke and Scarborough. The old city was a battle with Chow, with Tory winning along the waterfront, High Park and the Beaches, Chow winning over Regent Park, Riverdale and western core (Parkdale, Kensington, South Annex, UofT)

[adma]

Source for such maps

https://bigcitypolitics.cartodb.com/

[King of Kensington]

Richard Florida on the Toronto election and the class divide in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/the-new-class-divide/article21456139/

Basically Tory won the affluent but Chow did well with the core creative group of people in the arts, the Annex intellectuals (apparently "intelligentsia" is an offensive term), and Ford won the working class.

[Krago]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

[King of Kensington]

Inevitably, the lefty intellectuals will have to get stuck with Rosedale in the 50 ward map. 

[Linus Van Pelt]

Source for such maps

https://bigcitypolitics.cartodb.com/

Nice find - this is worth clicking through to, since it has clickable and zoomable maps, not just the image.

[Hatman 🍁]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

Great stuff, Krago.

Personally, I support 100 wards for Toronto. But I'm slightly crazy.

[DC Al Fine]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

Great stuff, Krago.

Personally, I support 100 wards for Toronto. But I'm slightly crazy.

I prefer more wards. Its crazy in Halifax; we have more MLAs than we do city councilors!

[Njall]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

Great stuff, Krago.

Personally, I support 100 wards for Toronto. But I'm slightly crazy.

I prefer more wards. Its crazy in Halifax; we have more MLAs than we do city councilors!

It's the same story in Calgary; we have 25 MLAs but only 14 city councillors

[Citizen Hats]

ha! you easterners and your ward systems.  I'v really grown to appreciate at-large voting

[Hatman 🍁]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

Great stuff, Krago.

Personally, I support 100 wards for Toronto. But I'm slightly crazy.

I prefer more wards. Its crazy in Halifax; we have more MLAs than we do city councilors!

It's the same story in Calgary; we have 25 MLAs but only 14 city councillors

It's the same in Edmonton and Winnipeg as well.

ha! you easterners and your ward systems.  I'v really grown to appreciate at-large voting

I think I've mentioned this to you before, but at-large voting systems (especially partisan ones) are probably the least democratic voting systems. Imagine if Canada had a 308 MP at large voting system? We'd end up with 300 Tory MPs! Somehow Vancouver has made it work, though.

If Vancouver wants to continue eschewing wards, it should adopt STV.

[Citizen Hats]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

Great stuff, Krago.

Personally, I support 100 wards for Toronto. But I'm slightly crazy.

I prefer more wards. Its crazy in Halifax; we have more MLAs than we do city councilors!

It's the same story in Calgary; we have 25 MLAs but only 14 city councillors

It's the same in Edmonton and Winnipeg as well.

ha! you easterners and your ward systems.  I'v really grown to appreciate at-large voting

I think I've mentioned this to you before, but at-large voting systems (especially partisan ones) are probably the least democratic voting systems. Imagine if Canada had a 308 MP at large voting system? We'd end up with 300 Tory MPs! Somehow Vancouver has made it work, though.

If Vancouver wants to continue eschewing wards, it should adopt STV.

I agree that STV would be a superior electoral system for Vancouver.  In the context of Vancouver, I prefer the existing at-large system over the ward system because the ward system encourages parochialism that I think is destructive to getting things done in a city (Scarborough for Scarberians!).  On the scale of a city, this petty nonesense is so much less justifiable than it is on the scale of a province or a country.  The geography is too great for it to work, versus a ten member city council for a relatively small area

[DL]

The problem with the "at-large" system in Vancouver historically is that the turnout is always much higher from the wealthy western parts of the city than from the poorer eastern parts - and as a result you end up with a city council almost entirely composed of people who represent the rich areas where people tend to tur out. If you have a ward based system then then  east end gets a councillor - whether the turnout there is 30% or 80%

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, a ward system would be better for working class representation in Vancouver, where there are no census tracts east of Cambie or Main that exceed the metro's average income. 

Toronto has more of a central corridor/periphery divide rather than east/west.  Interestingly I think in every other Ontario city there's a east-west split with the west side being more affluent and the east side more working class (i.e. Ottawa, Kingston, Hamilton, London).

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, a ward system would be better for working class representation in Vancouver, where there are no census tracts east of Cambie or Main that exceed the metro's average income. 

Toronto has more of a central corridor/periphery divide rather than east/west.  Interestingly I think in every other Ontario city there's a east-west split with the west side being more affluent and the east side more working class (i.e. Ottawa, Kingston, Hamilton, London).

Ottawa is more like Toronto in that regard. Sure, parts of the "east end" are historically poor neighbourhoods, but we have clusters of poor neighbourhoods throughout the city, much like Toronto.

The problem with the "at-large" system in Vancouver historically is that the turnout is always much higher from the wealthy western parts of the city than from the poorer eastern parts - and as a result you end up with a city council almost entirely composed of people who represent the rich areas where people tend to tur out. If you have a ward based system then then  east end gets a councillor - whether the turnout there is 30% or 80%

Indeed, and I think STV would not help this part. One of the few benefits of first past the post is that it allows for lower turnout areas to be equally represented to higher turnout areas.

Another problem with Vancouver is it's city council is obscenely small. Having just 10 councillors represent such a world famous city is beyond ridiculous.

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa is more like Toronto in that regard. Sure, parts of the "east end" are historically poor neighbourhoods, but we have clusters of poor neighbourhoods throughout the city, much like Toronto.

Yes, also Rockcliffe Park, Ottawa's wealthiest area is in Ottawa-Vanier, but so is the more troubled Vanier. Looking just quickly at the riding level, it's difficult to generalize about its social geography, though it's true that the west end of the pre-war city is more affluent.  It's probably fair to say that Ottawa South and Nepean sort of function the way North York or Etobicoke do in Toronto.

Average income:

Ottawa Centre  $53,859
Nepean-Carleton  $53,096
Carleton-Mississippi Mills  $52,914
Ottawa-Vanier  $45,200
Ottawa South  $45,054
Ottawa West-Nepean  $43,714

Ottawa Vanier has the highest percentage with low incomes (20%) and Ottawa Centre, Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South all are in the 16-17% range.  The remaining suburban/exurban ridings,not surprisingly, have very low poverty rates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Vanier's median income will be much lower, as it removes the skew of Rockcliffe Park.

Interestingly, Ottawa-Orleans has one of the the smallest Average Income minus Median Income #s in the country, meaning everyone pretty much makes the same amount. (It's a good shorthand for a GINI coefficient).

[Citizen Hats]

Yeah, a ward system would be better for working class representation in Vancouver, where there are no census tracts east of Cambie or Main that exceed the metro's average income. 

Toronto has more of a central corridor/periphery divide rather than east/west.  Interestingly I think in every other Ontario city there's a east-west split with the west side being more affluent and the east side more working class (i.e. Ottawa, Kingston, Hamilton, London).

Ottawa is more like Toronto in that regard. Sure, parts of the "east end" are historically poor neighbourhoods, but we have clusters of poor neighbourhoods throughout the city, much like Toronto.

The problem with the "at-large" system in Vancouver historically is that the turnout is always much higher from the wealthy western parts of the city than from the poorer eastern parts - and as a result you end up with a city council almost entirely composed of people who represent the rich areas where people tend to tur out. If you have a ward based system then then  east end gets a councillor - whether the turnout there is 30% or 80%

Indeed, and I think STV would not help this part. One of the few benefits of first past the post is that it allows for lower turnout areas to be equally represented to higher turnout areas.

Another problem with Vancouver is it's city council is obscenely small. Having just 10 councillors represent such a world famous city is beyond ridiculous.

I wouldn't put 1 for every 58,000 people down as such a terrible number, though it perhaps could be larger.  And when we're talking about 'working class' representation, remember that candidates backed by the east side win frequently enough - Robertson, Campbell, Harcourt, Phillips

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, a ward system would be better for working class representation in Vancouver, where there are no census tracts east of Cambie or Main that exceed the metro's average income. 

Toronto has more of a central corridor/periphery divide rather than east/west.  Interestingly I think in every other Ontario city there's a east-west split with the west side being more affluent and the east side more working class (i.e. Ottawa, Kingston, Hamilton, London).

Ottawa is more like Toronto in that regard. Sure, parts of the "east end" are historically poor neighbourhoods, but we have clusters of poor neighbourhoods throughout the city, much like Toronto.

The problem with the "at-large" system in Vancouver historically is that the turnout is always much higher from the wealthy western parts of the city than from the poorer eastern parts - and as a result you end up with a city council almost entirely composed of people who represent the rich areas where people tend to tur out. If you have a ward based system then then  east end gets a councillor - whether the turnout there is 30% or 80%

Indeed, and I think STV would not help this part. One of the few benefits of first past the post is that it allows for lower turnout areas to be equally represented to higher turnout areas.

Another problem with Vancouver is it's city council is obscenely small. Having just 10 councillors represent such a world famous city is beyond ridiculous.

I wouldn't put 1 for every 58,000 people down as such a terrible number, though it perhaps could be larger.  And when we're talking about 'working class' representation, remember that candidates backed by the east side win frequently enough - Robertson, Campbell, Harcourt, Phillips

Vancouver has been lucky enough to have avoided amalgamations. A super city with the entire lower mainland would rarely elect a progressive mayor.

[Citizen Hats]

It should be noted that if we were to amagamate to the extent to which Toronto has, in rough density terms, I imagine we would annex Burnaby and New Westminster.  Both of these cities are ancient strongholds of the NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

It should be noted that if we were to amagamate to the extent to which Toronto has, in rough density terms, I imagine we would annex Burnaby and New Westminster.  Both of these cities are ancient strongholds of the NDP

Toronto amalgamated six municipalities, though, you'd have to do better than that. Add Surrey, Richmond, Delta, North Vancouver, West Vancouver, Coquitlam, etc to make it more of a comparison.  To match amalgamations in other Eastern cities, you have to really go out into the suburbs and even into rural areas.

[King of Kensington]

Sounds about right to me.  If we add up Vancouver's 2 densest and most "urban" suburbs, Burnaby and New Westminster, and also add the University Endowment Lands which are not part of the City of Vancouver, we get a population of 905,000 in a land area of 236 sq. km and a population density of 3,842 per sq. km, a density not too far off from the current City of Toronto.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sounds about right to me.  If we add up Vancouver's 2 densest and most "urban" suburbs, Burnaby and New Westminster, and also add the University Endowment Lands which are not part of the City of Vancouver, we get a population of 905,000 in a land area of 236 sq. km and a population density of 3,842 per sq. km, a density not too far off from the current City of Toronto.

Sure, but Toronto is not the only city to have had an amalgamation. Density is usually ignored when it comes to these things.