Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

oh wow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, due to the crowded field, anyone who sets themselves apart from the rest will have an advantage. That's how Trump did it. I would not be surprised if Leitch leads on the first ballot, even if it's just 20%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Unfortunately for her, the leadership race isn't a winner-take-all system like the Republican primaries.

Right; I guess who ever comes in 2nd on the first ballot will probably win the race.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't recall any outrage when the King of Saudi Arabia died. What will happen when the next Chinese Premier dies?

Castro was a dictator yes, but let's not pretend this is any more than vilifying a leftist bogeyman who just so happened to not be our best friend.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn. I so want to ironically support the Kellie Leitch campaign, but I still feel gross about doing that for Trump.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn. I so want to ironically support the Kellie Leitch campaign, but I still feel gross about doing that for Trump.

Do you think Kevin O'Leary will run for the Conservative leadership or not?

No. Anyways, he is just so loathsome to me that I couldn't even ironically support him.

[Hatman 🍁]

As for electoral reform, methinks the Liberals will fudge a compromise where a referendum on reform will take place simultaneously with the next federal election, both to reduce overhead costs and to guarantee high enough turnout to enshrine public legitimacy of any subsequent reform.

If they tie a referendum to the next general election, the chances of electoral reform passing are quite low as well. So, the Liberals may not hate that option too much.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's truly disgusting and disheartening to hear a doctor want to abolish our health care system. Sad!

[Hatman 🍁]

Is O'Leary "anti-elite" though? Is he going to want to drain the swamp in Ottawa? I can't see it. The comparisons with Trump end at being a wealthy, self absorbed blowhard reality TV star.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary will run as an above-the-fray moderate.

nothing moderate about him.

[Hatman 🍁]

ooh, fun:

Chris Alexander - Rubio?
Bernier - Paul?
Trost - Huckabee
Lemieux - Santorum
Leitch &  O'Leary - TRUMP
Chong - Kasich
Deepak Obhrai - Ben Carson
Erin O'Toole - also Jeb!
Rick Peterson - Jim Gilmore
Lisa Raitt - Snarly Carly
Steven Blaney - Walker?

Seems to be no Ted Cruz candidate. Sad!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ivison: O'Leary is the prohibitive favourite, with Bernier, Leitch and Alexander (!) polling strongly.

Seems like terrible #analysis tbh

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada is very under populated. We could easily fit 100,000,000 people. If traffic is a problem, build better public transit. If housing costs too much, build more housing & make it illegal (or introduce an obscene tax) to own property in certain areas without living in it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, his Trump transition is going swimmingly so far.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Deepak seems to be a genuinely nice person, and is quite humourous. His candidacy is bizarre, but I guess he thought it was 'his turn' because he is the longest serving Tory MP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Deepak seems to be a genuinely nice person, and is quite humourous. His candidacy is bizarre, but I guess he thought it was 'his turn' because he is the longest serving Tory MP.

Tied with the longest actually.  As Yoda said "No, there is another."  Gerry Ritz was also elected in 1997.

yeah, but how's Gerry's French?

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/

Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!

It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

Honestly, Trudeau seems like a pretty good fit for a lot of Atlas' centre left.

Maybe it's just kids these days. It's been a long time since the Liberals were in power, but people my age remember how disappointing they were.

But anyways, sorry for hijacking the thread.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do Conservatives just blindly follow the endorsements of candidates who drop out? I don't think we can assume Bernier will win. His style of libertarianism may be toxic with many in the party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sadly Canada's next PM is likely Kellie Leitch. 

LOL

Hot take alert! Hot take alert!

[Hatman 🍁]

Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

Are you putting the social conservative options (like Trost or Lemieux) first, or are you going with electability (so presumably Raitt or Chong)? I'd ask you to put Bernier high, but he really doesn't seem like your style of conservative...

Fringe socons, then Scheer is my electable socon. After that I don't know. I want some sort of mix between liking personality, policies, and their electability.

My ballot currently looks like

1) Lemieux
2) Trost
3) Scheer
4-10)

Ballot cutoff
O'Leary
Leitch
Blaney
Peterson

Lemieux? why put him above Trost? Personally, the man makes my skin crawl. I used to intern for an MP that was in the same committee as him, and he did not leave a good impression on me. Though, I can't imagine Trost being much better.

[Hatman 🍁]

Our numbers show a large lead for Bernier:



Of course, I think it won't be such a blowout when it comes to actual members. The party establishment isn't exactly behind Bernier (look at the endorsements). For example, O'Toole has the most caucus endorsements, but his name recognition among Canadians is non existent.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just realized that if Bernier wins, all parties but the Greens will be led by Quebecers: Trudeau from Papineau, Mulcair from Outremont, Bernier from Beauce and the Bloc.

Mulcair wont' be leader in the next election though.

Yeah, and Caron probably won't win the NDP leadership. But has that ever happened before, Quebecers leading every major party?

No, because Mulcair was the first NDP leader from Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll be looking at the regional breaks of course. Looks like they'll putting the riding results up right away.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary on CBC is still talking about running in University-Rosedale.

Seemed to confuse the riding for the old riding of Toronto Centre, talking about how it always goes Liberal. Most of the riding was carved out of Trinity-Spadina though.