Australia - 7 September 2013

[ag]

The boats issue is an ugly one (no point in pretending otherwise), but there's nothing specifically Australian about it, other than the obvious: that Australia - one of the richest countries on the planet and also one of its first and most stable democracies - happens to be comparatively easy to reach from basically anywhere in South or East Asia.

This "comparatively easy" is rather funny by itself. Would you mind reminding us, HOW MANY asylum-seekers and other illegal immigrants have arrived to Australia, say, in the last 10 years.

How the "xeno" in "xenophonbia" is defined might vary. And no, there is nothing exceptional about Australian xenophobia/racism (whatever term you prefer). Europeans are, naturally, no better. But not being "exceptional" does not make it any less repugnant.

Anyway, however much I hate Abbott, I am now neutral in this election. For what I care, both party leaders could be locked up with a couple of hungry salties.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd's telling G20 colleagues he'll be there, but both he and Bryce are seeking advice about an e-dissolution.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And no, there is nothing exceptional about Australian xenophobia/racism (whatever term you prefer). Europeans are, naturally, no better. But not being "exceptional" does not make it any less repugnant.

It was the idea that there's something strange about Australian attitudes to asylum seekers that I objected to.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's kind of interesting that the response to Abbott's response to Rudd has been so muted to negative.

I really think 21 September is firming again... the problem for Rudd is that any delay beyond 31 August is looked at as being driven totally by his wanting to go to the G20 as opposed to that fact that the party organisation isn't quite ready yet...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/sweaty-palms-are-showing-20130726-2qpmf.html

Worth a read

[Platypus]

There are still outstanding pre-selections for Labor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I thought they had to be finalised by tonight ?

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd's in Afghanistan and won't be back till tomorrow. Election's been postponed, I'm guessing 9/21?

[You kip if you want to...]

A good poll for the ALP from Galaxy.

Primary
44% (nc)
40% (+2)
9% (-1)

Which makes for a 2PP of 50-50, a swing of +1 to the ALP from last month's Coalition lead of 51-49.

Best leader on asylum seekers
Rudd 40%
Abbott 38%

Climate change
Rudd 45%
Abbott 31%

Vision for the future
Rudd 46%
Abbott 36%

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd v Bolt preview.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd is contemplating a proposal which would mandate boot camp for dole-seeking youth.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/prime-minister-kevin-rudd8217s-hard-line-stance-on-asylum-seekers-leads-to-poll-boost/story-fnho52qo-1226686975427

Story attached to the Galaxy poll... interesting that so much was made of the shift to the Coalition in the Newspoll... but Galaxy and Essential both saw continued improvement to the Government.

The asylum number for Abbott in the Galaxy Poll is not good.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

More stuff out of Galaxy...

Better economic manager (that's horrendous for Abbott)
Rudd: 41%
Abbott: 41%

Who do you trust to keep their election promises?
Rudd: 37%
Abbott: 32%

Preferred PM
Rudd: 51%
Abbott: 34%

Rudd: 38%
Turnbull: 46%

[RogueBeaver]

Some elements of NSWR expect Rudd to dissolve next weekend, but the early September dates seem highly unlikely. One person who's gungho for an early election: Paul Howes.

[Hifly]

A massive ReachTel poll in Tasmania continues to show the ALP comfortably behind in Bass, Braddon and Lyons. No polling of Franklin was done.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tas is being impacted by the v unpopular state govt.

[RogueBeaver]

Election call this weekend for 9/7? Rudd hasn't moved the needle in key VIC marginals either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tas is being impacted by the v unpopular state govt.

Basically. You'd think they'd have learned by now not to do deals with the Greenies. But the internals of those polls (it should be noted) look less than entirely kosher.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tas is being impacted by the v unpopular state govt.

Basically. You'd think they'd have learned by now not to do deals with the Greenies. But the internals of those polls (it should be noted) look less than entirely kosher.

Yeah, some of those internals just look plain odd.

[Platypus]

Bass is in trouble, Lyons isn't, no idea about Braddon. Ultimately I've put them all as Labor in my pre-election prediction. Half of Victoria left to go.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bass is in trouble, Lyons isn't, no idea about Braddon. Ultimately I've put them all as Labor in my pre-election prediction. Half of Victoria left to go.

I think they'll lose one in Tas... more than likely Bass. They're not losing Lyons.

[Platypus]

Agreed that that's the likely order of falling - Bass, Braddon, Lyons. I'd be surprised if they lost two, shocked if they lost three. Bass is completely in the air I thnk, anyone but Abbott and it'd be a flip for sure.

[Hifly]

Bass is in trouble, Lyons isn't, no idea about Braddon. Ultimately I've put them all as Labor in my pre-election prediction. Half of Victoria left to go.

I think they'll lose one in Tas... more than likely Bass. They're not losing Lyons.

Why are you so confident about that? Is your strategy to ignore the polls?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bass is in trouble, Lyons isn't, no idea about Braddon. Ultimately I've put them all as Labor in my pre-election prediction. Half of Victoria left to go.

I think they'll lose one in Tas... more than likely Bass. They're not losing Lyons.

Why are you so confident about that? Is your strategy to ignore the polls?

I'll trust internal intelligence over one set of polls with questionable internals.


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalitions-tent-city-trip-funded-by-logistics-company-that-provides-tents-20130730-2qws3.html

This is a really, really bad look.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There were many many polls done of safe Coalition divisions in 2007 that appeared to show all manner of truly sensational results. Remarkable and startling findings that were not reflected in terms of actual votes. Of course Lyons (née Wilmot) has a very strange electoral history - even for Tasmania - and so is maybe more likely to do weird things than (say) North Sydney was, but the lesson is there. Also Dick Adams has already won on a couple of occasions when he should by rights have lost (1996, 2004).