Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[RFayette]

Excellent, Miles! So, SD-35 may pretend to be the most conservative state Senate District in Louisiana? Not surprising that even such (formerly) conservative Democrat as Fannin had difficulties there. And with "D" letter after name he would surely lose...

Some further observations:

1. Almost all Edwards/Republican districts (all, except SD-27) are not far from either New Orlean or Baton Rouge, many of them - suburban.

2. Democrats must have good chances in SD-08, when Alario retires in 2019.  SD-17 and SD-27 - another matter. Both  Ward and Johns are formerly conservative Democrats, now - relatively "moderate" Republicans, both fit their districts, and may run for reelection. I would presume - under normal situation they will get reelected.

3. Democrats have only 3 relatively "difficult" seats in state Senate, with the most problematic in 2019, probably, being SD-28, because it will be open. Smith and, especially, Milkovich, have theoretically even more difficult districts, but both fits them well, and both may run for reelection...

4. Wish that Democratic candidate in SD-12 (formerly - Nevers district) would be able to copy JBE percentages there...

Which is an illustration of the point that I've been trying to make for quite some time on the Forum that the resurrection of Democrats in the South is dependent on the voting-habits of upper-middle class, suburban Whites rather than racial minorities, the working poor or "Blue Dogs". 

For comparative purposes, here is how I think a "JBE-type" Democratic victory would occur in Mississippi



This map uses the scale that Miles uses in his maps, btw

This map still has Rankin and DeSoto, which have a lot of wealthy suburban whites, going R.  Are there a lot of those types of voters on the Eastern edge of the state, based on your map?

[Miles]

^ DeSoto/Rankin are to MS what Livingston/St. Tammany are to LA. A Democrat winning by that type of margin would only need to be around 40%-ish there, as JBE was.

[smoltchanov]

smoltchanov: ProudNewEnglander and I have chatted - he's revised his numbers and tells me they're almost identical to mine. I'll let him do the heavy lifting for the rest of the House districts. I want to break down the primary by LD, so I'll start on that instead.

Will wait for him and you both...

[smoltchanov]

Which is an illustration of the point that I've been trying to make for quite some time on the Forum that the resurrection of Democrats in the South is dependent on the voting-habits of upper-middle class, suburban Whites rather than racial minorities, the working poor or "Blue Dogs". 

Yes and no. Fully agree on suburban Whites, but "Blue Dogs" still win elections in the South (Milkovich in Louisiana, Dearing in Mississippi, and, essentially, Hill in Louisiana as well (though she was an incumbent)). Of course - in substantially less numbers then 20-30 years ago, when almost all white Democrats from Deep South belonged to that group (and there were very few Republicans), but - nevertheless...

[smoltchanov]

Miles, i have a complaint!))) ProudNewEnglander claims on DKE that he finished his calculations on Governorship by House districts, and gives some examples, but neither map not detailed data are there))))). Can you fill up the gap?)))))

[Miles]

^ He told me he'll have his maps up by today, so we'll wait and see for now.

[Miles]

^ This is what he posted for the House results:

[smoltchanov]

Thanks! It's difficult to judge correctly without numbers, but, generally, Northern Louisiana seems to be more rigid in it's voting then Southern one..

[Miles]

^ Just like in the primary, the north was always going to be the most generic R v generic D region on the map.

[smoltchanov]

And if i understand correctly - the north is the most "southern" part of the state. Like in Florida....

[Miles]

^ Yep!

[Miles]

^ Sort of a combination. Acadiana has traditionally had relatively high black suffrage rates. In the early 20th century, while only 0-5% of blacks in the deep south were voting, it was closer to 25-30% in Acadiana.

Even in the south Louisiana, though, there were areas that held out. Leander Perez, the segregationist who ran Plaquemines Parish, for example, delivered votes in that region for Goldwater (and Thurmond in 1948).

[smoltchanov]

Have found couple of useful links:

http://geoelections.free.fr/USA/elec_comtes/1948.htm

and:

http://geoelections.free.fr/USA/elec_comtes/1964.htm

Looking at Louisiana: 1948 map   really shows a degree of Perez influence in Plaquemines, and, at the same time, low support for Thurmond in mostly white South-West, and (why?) in some South-Central parishes not far from Baton Rouge.

1964 map is even more interesting, IMHO:very high (in some cases - extremely high) level of Goldwater support in North and Central Louisiana (+ Plaquemines), somewhat lower - in South-East, and strong loyalty to Johnson in Acadiana. Despite almost all these areas (North, Central, South-East, Acadiana) being represented by Democrats in Congress and legislature. So - it must be very different breeds of Democrats...

[Miles]

^ 1948 was interesting. St. Martin is the most Francophone parish in the state, IIRC, and it (and the counties around it were strongly for Thurmond). Not sure.

Another infamous segregationist parish boss was William Rainach of Claiborne Parish. Thats why those parishes just east of the Shreveport area were all a few shades darker green than those around it.

[smoltchanov]

^ 1948 was interesting. St. Martin is the most Francophone parish in the state, IIRC, and it (and the counties around it were strongly for Thurmond). Not sure.

Another infamous segregationist parish boss was William Rainach of Claiborne Parish. Thats why those parishes just east of the Shreveport area were all a few shades darker green than those around it.

I read extensively about Rainach, IMHO - "the Dynamo" of Louisiana segregationist politics (even more so, then Perez though the latter is better known), his governor campaign in 1959, and suicide in 1978. Contrary even to Thurmond (and Joe Waggonner, another "hero" of segregationists in 1950th - 1960th) - he (again - IMHO) couldn't reconsile himself with post-segregation life.....

[Miles]

The SOS report on the makeup of the runoff's electorate:

White: 778621 (66.8%)
Black: 353462 (30.3%)
Other: 33717 (2.9%)

Democrats: 599334 (51.4%)
Republicans: 378824 (32.5%)
Independents: 187642 (16.1%)

Whites turned out at a slightly higher rate than blacks (41% vs 39%).

[ElectionsGuy]

That voter registration. Did a majority of independents still vote for Vitter, or are there still plenty of DINOs who voted for Vitter?

Looks like Edwards got just around 38% of the white vote with that racial makeup.

[smoltchanov]

That voter registration. Did a majority of independents still vote for Vitter, or are there still plenty of DINOs who voted for Vitter?

Looks like Edwards got just around 38% of the white vote with that racial makeup.

38% is something most Democratric candidates in the South can only dream of. If all of them would get such white support - vast majority if statewide offices in South would be held by Democrats..

[hopper]

I enjoyed making this map

Like the Blue Counties surrounded by Red Counties in the Northern part of the state!

[Miles]

^ Yeah, with the exception of Morehouse (growing black electorate in recent years), they all voted for Duke (all three times).

[hopper]

Just looked at the Trend Map every county trended towards Edwards from Jindal's 2011 victory.

[Joe Republic]

Just looked at the Trend Map every county trended towards Edwards from Jindal's 2011 victory.

You don't say?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Just looked at the Trend Map every county trended towards Edwards from Jindal's 2011 victory.

Well, Jindal won in a total cakewalk, getting 66%. The main democrat got just 18%.

[nclib]

Just looked at the Trend Map every county trended towards Edwards from Jindal's 2011 victory.

Well, Jindal won in a total cakewalk, getting 66%. The main democrat got just 18%.

And only 6 counties (i.e. parishes) did not have the maximum trend shade.

[Miles]

Dardenne getting prominent role in Edward's government:

You must be logged in to read this quote.