The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread (Part 2)

[Mr. Morden]

Carson is making his announcement about whether he'll run or not on May 4th, and then is immediately going to Iowa.  Which makes one wonder…hmmm…if he's going to Iowa, doesn't that mean that he's going to announce that yes, he is running for president?

Well, looks like Huckabee is doing the same thing: Hucka-announcement on May 5th, then various events in Iowa on May 6th and 7th:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/04/27/mike-huckabee-announces-iowa-stops/26457409/

[Simfan34]

I worked for him one summer and actually know his son, who apparently met him last week. Doesn't seem right but curious.

And nope.

[Phony Moderate]

Carson is making his announcement about whether he'll run or not on May 4th, and then is immediately going to Iowa.  Which makes one wonder…hmmm…if he's going to Iowa, doesn't that mean that he's going to announce that yes, he is running for president?

Well, looks like Huckabee is doing the same thing: Hucka-announcement on May 5th, then various events in Iowa on May 6th and 7th:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/04/27/mike-huckabee-announces-iowa-stops/26457409/

Maybe Carson is going to Iowa to sample some of their fine cheeses...oh wait, that's Wisconsin, right?

[Torie]

Can someone post a complete list of those who are a least musing about running on the Pub side? I mean the number of names is giving me a headache. Ehrlich? Who is he? Some guy from Maryland or something?  That guy who was drawn out of his CD seat in the Baltimore burbs back in 2002? Are we up to a score of them yet? A lot of folks really seem to want to increase their speaking fee rate it seems.

[Mr. Morden]

Can someone post a complete list of those who are a least musing about running on the Pub side? I mean the number of names is giving me a headache. Ehrlich? Who is he? Some guy from Maryland or something?  That guy who was drawn out of his CD seat in the Baltimore burbs back in 2002? Are we up to a score of them yet? A lot of folks really seem to want to increase their speaking fee rate it seems.

Already announced their candidacy
Sen. Ted Cruz (TX)
Sen. Rand Paul (KY)
Sen. Marco Rubio (FL)

Planning to make an announcement next week
neurosurgeon Ben Carson
former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
former Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)

Has an exploratory committee
businessman Donald Trump

Has a "testing the waters" committee / 527
Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC)
Gov. John Kasich (OH)
former Sen. Rick Santorum (PA)
Gov. Scott Walker (WI)

Has a PAC that they seem to be using as a stealth presidential campaign
former UN Ambassador John Bolton
former Gov. Jeb Bush (FL)
Gov. Chris Christie (NJ)
Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)
former Gov. George Pataki (NY)
former Gov. Rick Perry (TX)

Has been making trips to New Hampshire, and at least publicly says that a run for president is on the table
former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (MD)
former Gov. Jim Gilmore (VA)
Rep. Peter King (NY)

Has no PAC or exploratory committee, and has only made one recent visit to an early primary state, but has just recently started talking about the fact that he might run for president, and will make a decision soon
Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)

Had talked about running for president a few months ago, but have kind of dropped off the face of the Earth, and don't seem to be laying the groundwork at this point; still, they haven't given any kind of definitive statement ruling it out, so I guess it's still possible
former Gov. Sarah Palin (AK)
Gov. Mike Pence (IN)

So what is that?  23 names in total if you count everyone?

[Torie]

Peter King? Oh, my. The last two are a real stretch, so let's say a score plus one is the number at the moment, aka the drinking age. That has got to be a record number, no?

Thanks for the list!

[Mr. Morden]

Peter King? Oh, my. The last two are a real stretch, so let's say a score plus one is the number at the moment, aka the drinking age. That has got to be a record number, no?

If it makes you feel better, Peter King would be close to the bottom of that list if ranked in likelihood to run.  He's only doing about one event in New Hampshire per month at this point, and he's basically said that his strategy is to hope that a sufficiently large number of his potential rivals self-destruct…in which case, he'll get in the race.

[Thomas D]

Vermont Public Radio says Sanders is in on Thursday.

[IceSpear]

Trump is such a doofus. He's already decided, but the "chances are good"? If he's already decided, the chances are either 0 or 100.

[IceSpear]

Btw, I like how every Gilmore/Ehrlich article Morden ever links to always has 0 comments. lol

[Mr. Morden]

Snyder:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-27/rick-snyder-tempers-talk-of-2016-presidential-run

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[King]

Btw, I like how every Gilmore/Ehrlich article Morden ever links to always has 0 comments. lol

Not true, a racist Jeff Dunham puppet replied to this article about Ehrlich on the riots:

http://www.wmur.com/politics/ehrlich-disgusted-angry-embarrassed-by-riots-in-his-home-state/32621736

[Türkisblau]

At least Snyder is kind of relevant. Ofc no one cares about Ehrlich and Gilmore by the way.

[Senator Spiral]

In case there was still any doubt on Fiorina's plans:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/04/28/carly-fiorina-picking-speed-iowa-gop-activists-say/26543889/

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[King]

In case there was still any doubt on Fiorina's plans:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/04/28/carly-fiorina-picking-speed-iowa-gop-activists-say/26543889/

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Still plenty of doubt on what she thinks she will get out of this.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, the Fiorina candidacy has gotta be one of the strangest Pub things this cycle.

[Likely Voter]

if the GOP wants a woman on that debate stage, can't they talk one of their governors or senators into it? I think there are around 10 or so, surely one of them wants a higher profile?

[Ebsy]

Having someone like Susan Collins or Nikki Haley up on the stage, even if they have no chance at the nomination, would probably bring some much needed class to the debates.

[Mr. Morden]

if the GOP wants a woman on that debate stage, can't they talk one of their governors or senators into it? I think there are around 10 or so, surely one of them wants a higher profile?

Why would any of them agree to run just because Priebus asks them to?  They all have their own plans and own ambitions, which are independent of what the party leadership wants.

[Likely Voter]

they would run for the same reason that someone like Lindsay Graham is running, to raise their profile and hopes to get into the cabinet.

[Mr. Morden]

they would run for the same reason that someone like Lindsay Graham is running, to raise their profile and hopes to get into the cabinet.

But what does that have to do with being "talked into it", by the party leadership?  What is the party leadership going to say to them to convince them?  Also, I think you're overestimating the extent to which the party leadership cares about this sort of thing.  Big $ donors care more about who runs than Priebus does, I think.  And I don't think big $ donors care that much about whether they candidates they back are men or women.

[daveosupremo]

they would run for the same reason that someone like Lindsay Graham is running, to raise their profile and hopes to get into the cabinet.

Lindsey Graham doesn't want to be in the cabinet.

[Mr. Morden]

Graham was in Nevada this past weekend:

http://dailycaller.com/2015/04/26/lindsey-graham-hawks-his-hawkishness-in-vegas-as-he-contemplates-white-house-run/

He'll be in New Hampshire next weekend:

http://www.wmur.com/politics/look-ahead-carly-and-the-donald-return-to-nh-this-week/32561548

Fiorina is also in NH this week.  She "will make nine stops from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning."

[Ebsy]

I'd love to see the turnout at Fiorina events.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee and Santorum will speak at the "Family Leadership Regional Summit" in Cedar Falls, Iowa on May 18:

http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/04/mike-huckabee-and-rick-santorum-confirmed-to-speak-at-the-family-leader-family-leadership-regional-s.html